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| Wilfling, Bernd. |
| Recent theory on exchange rate dynamics suggests that the mere announcement of regime switching from floating to fixed rates at a given future date triggers a reduction in exchange rate volatility during the interim period. Using a Markov-switching GARCH model this paper estimates the volatility processes of four EMU exchange rate returns vis-à-vis the German mark using daily data for the time prior to Stage III of EMU. Statistical inference yields the dates at which financial markets began to incorporate the expected EMU participation of each country into currency pricing. The data exhibits strong econometric evidence for two distinct views concerning the ultimate EMU membership: (1) Finland and France were considered irrefutable EMU members long before... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: EMU; Exchange rate policy; Volatility; Regime-switching GARCH models; Financial Economics; F31; F33; C51. |
| Ano: 2001 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/26136 |
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| Soos, Janos. |
| Banking systems of the NMS are strongly linked to those of the EU15 Member States. Accession of NMS to EMU will likely to act, in the medium to long term, as a catalyst to strengthen already existing developments and trends in the banking systems of these countries. Accession to EMU will likely to strengthen the pressure for the reduction of existing excess capacity in the banking sector of the NMS. Further on, it is expected to put profitability under pressure and lead to increased geographical diversification and internationalisation, as well as to increased conglomeration and mergers and acquisitions. Overall, competition in banking within the euro area is likely to increase considerably after the NMS join EMU. When assessing any potential outcomes or... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Banking sector; EMU; New member states; Financial Economics. |
| Ano: 2007 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/58917 |
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