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| Registros recuperados: 59 | |
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| Rawluk, Andrea; University of Alberta; ajrawluk@ualberta.ca; Godber, Annelise; McGill University.; annelise.godber@mail.mcgill.ca. |
| Scenario planning can be invaluable for empowerment and learning in resource dependent communities. Pre-existing scenario planning methods call for collaboration between community members, but when cultural norms prevented men, women, and youth from coming together in the community of Ukupseni in Panama, the authors and community sought to devise an alternative method. The research objectives were twofold. First, to develop an alternative scenario planning method that would facilitate learning among decision makers about community needs and perspectives, and second, to explore ways to direct desired futures. Instead of forecasting through community-wide collaboration and backcasting with the creation of one vision through consensus, forecasting used... |
| Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports |
Palavras-chave: Backcasting; Collaboration; Forecasting; Kuna Yala; Scenario planning. |
| Ano: 2011 |
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| Smith, Gregory C.; Allard, Richard; Babin, Marcel; Bertino, Laurent; Chevallier, Matthieu; Corlett, Gary; Crout, Julia; Davidson, Fraser; Delille, Bruno; Gille, Sarah T.; Hebert, David; Hyder, Patrick; Intrieri, Janet; Lagunas, Jose; Larnicol, Gilles; Kaminski, Thomas; Kater, Belinda; Kauker, Frank; Marec, Claudie; Mazloff, Matthew; Metzger, E. Joseph; Mordy, Calvin; O'Carroll, Anne; Olsen, Steffen M.; Phelps, Michael; Posey, Pamela; Prandi, Pierre; Rehm, Eric; Reid, Phillip; Rigor, Ignatius; Sandven, Stein; Shupe, Matthew; Swart, Sebastiaan; Smedstad, Ole Martin; Solomon, Amy; Storto, Andrea; Thibaut, Pierre; Toole, John; Wood, Kevin; Xie, Jiping; Yang, Qinghua. |
| There is a growing need for operational oceanographic predictions in both the Arctic and Antarctic polar regions. In the former, this is driven by a declining ice cover accompanied by an increase in maritime traffic and exploitation of marine resources. Oceanographic predictions in the Antarctic are also important, both to support Antarctic operations and also to help elucidate processes governing sea ice and ice shelf stability. However, a significant gap exists in the ocean observing system in polar regions, compared to most areas of the global ocean, hindering the reliability of ocean and sea ice forecasts. This gap can also be seen from the spread in ocean and sea ice reanalyses for polar regions which provide an estimate of their uncertainty. The... |
| Tipo: Text |
Palavras-chave: Polar observations; Operational oceanography; Ocean data assimilation; Ocean modeling; Forecasting; Sea ice; Air-sea-ice fluxes; YOPP. |
| Ano: 2019 |
URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00512/62379/66650.pdf |
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| Certain, Gregoire; Barraquand, Frederic; Gardmark, Anna. |
| 1.Multivariate autoregressive (MAR) models are an increasingly popular technique to infer interaction strengths between species in a community and to predict the community response to environmental change. The most commonly employed MAR(1) models, with one time lag, can be viewed either as multispecies competition models with Gompertz density‐dependence or, more generally, as a linear approximation of more complex, nonlinear dynamics around stable equilibria. This latter interpretation allows for broader applicability, but may come at a cost in terms of interpretation of estimates and reliability of both short‐ and long‐term predictions. 2.We investigate what these costs might be by fitting MAR(1) models to simulated two‐species competition,... |
| Tipo: Text |
Palavras-chave: Forecasting; Interaction strength; MARSS; Multivariate autoregressive models; PRESS perturbation. |
| Ano: 2018 |
URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00439/55085/56521.pdf |
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| Wang, Fangqi; Qi, Faqing; Hu, Guanghai; Dong, Lifeng; Tao, Changfei. |
| The subbottom profiling is an important means of marine engineering survey, hazardous geology study and continental shelf scientific research. The accuracy of subbottom profile data interpretation has a direct impact on the research and investigation results. Because some of profilers’ transducer and hydrophone are separately installed, when the survey area is very shallow, distortion of shallow layers will be caused if it is seen as a self-excited and self-collected single-channel seismic system. According to the principle of subbottom profiler, the distortion correction formula is deduced and analyzed, providing actual value to using C-View software to interpret such subbottom profile data more accurately. In addition, the seabed sediments sound velocity... |
| Tipo: Journal Contribution |
Palavras-chave: Crustal thickness; Sound velocity; Porosity; Forecasting. |
| Ano: 2012 |
URL: http://hdl.handle.net/1834/5852 |
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| Maynard, Leigh J.; Stoeppel, Kelly M.. |
| Thoroughbred broodmares are the foundation of a successful racing operation. This study estimated the impact of breeding, racing, and market characteristics on broodmare auction prices. Data represent 604 in-foal broodmares sold in Keeneland’s 2005 sale. Prices were highly responsive to the sire’s stud fee, the broodmare’s age, and progeny performance in graded stakes races, with pronounced day-of-sale effects. The stud fee marginal value was substantially lower than one break-even estimate, suggesting possible disincentives for investment in stallion services. Out-of-sample forecasts were far superior to naïve forecasts but were not accurate enough to use in isolation from other decision aids. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Broodmare; Forecasting; Hedonic price analysis; Thoroughbred; Agribusiness; Livestock Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 2007 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/62295 |
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| Wang, Xiaoyang; Garcia, Philip. |
| Price volatility in the corn market has changed considerably globalization and stronger linkages to the energy complex. Using data from January 1989 through December 2009, we estimate and forecast the volatility in the corn market using futures daily prices. Estimates in a Fractional Integrated GARCH framework identify the importance of long memory, seasonality, and structural change. Recursively generated forecasts for up to 40-day horizons starting in January 2005 highlight the importance of seasonality, and long memory specifications which perform well at more distant horizons particularly with rising volatility. The forecast benefits of allowing for structural change in an adaptive framework are more difficult to identify except at more distant... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Corn price volatility; Long memory; Seasonality; Structural change; Forecasting; Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2011 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103749 |
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| Fenyves, Veronika; Orban, Ildiko; Dajnoki, Krisztina; Nabradi, Andras. |
| The Hungarian sheep sector has become a one-market sector, almost the whole amount of slaughter lamb went to Italy. It would worth to exploit possibilities in other European markets. Such markets can be the Spanish and Greek for ”light” and the French, German and English markets for ”heavy” lambs. The European lamb prices are characterized by large seasonal fluctuation and the degree and timing of changes are different. Due to these seasonal changes, the producers often suffer great losses. Study of the literature on lamb sales called for an analysis of price forecasting. In my study, I performed a forecasting of lamb prices in Hungary, Italy and Greek for the period between 1996 and 2007 based on the data of the European Committee. Among the forecasting... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Forecasting; Lamb prices; Comparison; Agricultural and Food Policy. |
| Ano: 2009 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/58012 |
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| Witzke, Heinz Peter; Britz, Wolfgang. |
| In the context of a long run agricultural outlook on behalf of the European Environmental Agency a new methodology has been developed to systematically integrate external forecasts into a quite detailed agricultural sector model. External forecasts usually provide estimates for the exogenous variables in modelling work and frequently they are also used for comparisons and potential reassessment of empirical specifications. The innovative characteristic of this study is that expert forecasts have been used to specify parameter changes expressing structural change affecting behavioural functions. The outlook was therefore set up as a simultaneous estimation and forecasting effort which permitted to integrate various, usually contradictory expert forecasts... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Agricultural outlook; Forecasting; Modelling; Expert information; Agricultural and Food Policy; C15; C53; Q11; Q19; Q21. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24666 |
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| Zakrzewicz, Christopher J.; Brorsen, B. Wade; Briggeman, Brian C.. |
| The value of land dominates the financial structure of most American agricultural production firms, and land values are an important factor in long-term agricultural planning and risk management. As the primary source of collateral for farm loans, farmland values have significant implications for both producers as well as bankers financing agricultural loans. The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Survey of Agricultural Credit Conditions is an expert opinion survey in which agricultural bankers provide land value forecasts. As the survey has drawn increased attention, the survey has drawn criticism regarding its use qualitative data to forecast land values. Our research examines the value of the survey data with respect to its ability to forecast... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Farmland; Forecasting; Land values; Federal Reserve Bank; Agribusiness; Financial Economics. |
| Ano: 2010 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61758 |
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| Registros recuperados: 59 | |
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