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| Registros recuperados: 29 | |
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| Peterson, Garry D; McGill University; garry.peterson@mcgill.ca; Beard Jr., T. Douglas; Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources; BEARDT@dnr.state.wi.us; Beisner, Beatrix E; University of Wisconsin-Madison; bebeisner@facstaff.wisc.edu; Bennett, Elena M; University of Wisconsin-Madison; embennett@wisc.edu; Carpenter, Stephen R; University of Wisconsin-Madison; srcarpen@wisc.edu; Cumming, Graeme; University of Florida; cummingg@wec.ufl.edu; Dent, C. Lisa; University of Wisconsin-Madison; ldent@facstaff.wisc.edu,; Havlicek, Tanya D; University of Wisconsin-Madison; TDHAVLIC@students.wisc.edu. |
| The Northern Highlands Lake District of Wisconsin is in transition from a sparsely settled region to a more densely populated one. Expected changes offer benefits to northern Wisconsin residents but also threaten to degrade the ecological services they rely on. Because the future of this region is uncertain, it is difficult to make decisions that will avoid potential risks and take advantage of potential opportunities. We adopt a scenario planning approach to cope with this problem of prediction. We use an ecological assessment framework developed by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment to determine key social and ecological driving forces in the Northern Highlands Lake District. From these, we describe three alternative scenarios to the year 2025 in which... |
| Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports |
Palavras-chave: Northern Highlands Lake District; Wisconsin; Assessment; Ecosystem services; Freshwater; Futures; Prediction; Scenario planning. |
| Ano: 2003 |
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| Cork, Steven J; CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems and Land & Water Australia; stevecork@grapevine.net.au; Peterson, Garry D; Department of Geography & McGill School of the Environment, McGill University; garry.peterson@mcgill.ca; Bennett, Elena M; Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin, Madison; elena.bennett@mcgill.ca; Zurek, Monika; Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO); monika.zurek@fao.org. |
| This paper outlines the qualitative components (the storylines) of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) scenarios. Drawing on a mixture of expert knowledge, experience, and published literature, we have explored plausible consequences of four trajectories for human development. The storylines have been designed to draw out both benefits and risks for ecosystems and human well-being in all four trajectories with enough richness of detail to allow readers to immerse themselves in the world of the scenario. Only a summarized version of the storylines is presented here; readers are encouraged to read the more detailed versions (MA 2005). Together with the quantitative models (Alcamo et al. 2005) the storylines provide a base from which others can consider... |
| Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports |
Palavras-chave: Adaptive governance; Economic development; Ecosystem services; Environmental management; Environmental technology; Futures; Poverty reduction; Regime shifts; Resilience; Scenarios; Urbanization. |
| Ano: 2006 |
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| Sitas, Nadia; Harmáčková, Zuzana V.; Anticamara, Jonathan A.; Arneth, Almut; Badola, Ruchi; Biggs, Reinette; Blanchard, Ryan; Brotons, Lluis; Cantele, Matthew; Coetzer, Kaera; Dasgupta, Rajarshi; Den Belder, Eefje; Ghosh, Sonali; Guisan, Antoine; Gundimeda, Haripriya; Hamann, Meike; Harrison, Paula A.; Hashimoto, Shizuka; Hauck, Jennifer; Klatt, Brian J.; Kok, Kasper; Krug, Rainer M.; Niamir, Aidin; O'Farrell, Patrick J.; Okayasu, Sana; Palomo, Ignacio; Pereira, Laura M.; Riordan, Philip; Santos-martín, Fernando; Selomane, Odirilwe; Shin, Yunne-jai; Valle, Mireia. |
| Scenario analyses have been used in multiple science-policy assessments to better understand complex plausible futures. Scenario archetype approaches are based on the fact that many future scenarios have similar underlying storylines, assumptions, and trends in drivers of change, which allows for grouping of scenarios into typologies, or archetypes, facilitating comparisons between a large range of studies. The use of scenario archetypes in environmental assessments foregrounds important policy questions and can be used to codesign interventions tackling future sustainability issues. Recently, scenario archetypes were used in four regional assessments and one ongoing global assessment within the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform for Biodiversity... |
| Tipo: Text |
Palavras-chave: Assessment; Biodiversity; Decision making; Ecosystem services; Futures; Nature; Regional; Scenarios. |
| Ano: 2019 |
URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00516/62748/67140.pdf |
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| Irwin, Scott H.; Sanders, Dwight R.; Merrin, Robert P.. |
| It is commonly asserted that speculative buying by index funds in commodity futures and over–the–counter derivatives markets created a ‘‘bubble’’ in commodity prices, with the result that prices, and crude oil prices, in particular, far exceeded fundamental values at the peak. The purpose of this paper is to show that the bubble argument simply does not withstand close scrutiny. Four main points are explored. First, the arguments of bubble proponents are conceptually flawed and reflect fundamental and basic misunderstandings of how commodity futures markets actually work. Second, a number of facts about the situation in commodity markets are inconsistent with the existence of a substantial bubble in commodity prices. Third, available statistical evidence... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Commodity; Futures; Index fund; Market; Speculation; Agribusiness; Demand and Price Analysis; Financial Economics; Marketing; Q11; Q13. |
| Ano: 2009 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53083 |
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| Hanson, Steven D.; Myers, Robert J.; Hilker, James H.. |
| Many agricultural producers face cash price distributions that are effectively truncated at a lower limit through participation in farm programs designed to support farm prices and incomes. For example, the 1996 Federal Agricultural Improvement Act (FAIR) makes many producers eligible to obtain marketing loans which truncate their cash price realization at the loan rate, while allowing market prices to freely equilibrate supply and demand. This paper studies the effects of truncated cash price distributions on the optimal use of futures and options. The results show that truncation in the cash price distribution facing an individual producer provides incentives to trade options as well as futures. We derive optimal futures and options trading rules under... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Farm programs; Futures; Hedging; Options; Truncation; Marketing. |
| Ano: 1999 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15152 |
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| Mastel, Mike; Buschena, David E.. |
| The performance of the grain transportation industry, historically low real grain prices, and decreasing government support for grain prices have renewed interest in local grain prices and shipping costs. An understanding of the relationship between local cash prices and futures prices is an important part of minimizing the price risk associated with growing and merchandising grain. The ability to recognize the seasonal patterns between these prices offers improved profit potential for marketing grain. A Montana producer's decision of when and how to market his/her crop can have a great impact on net profit. Farm managers can use cash sales at or after harvest, forward contracting with a local grain elevator, or hedging with the use of futures and options... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Grain marketing; Futures; Basis; Freight rates; Marketing strategies; Marketing; Q1. |
| Ano: 2000 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/29176 |
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| Janzen, Joseph P.. |
| Analysis of the cotton futures price spike and its effects on commercial hedgers suggest that we do not completely understand the behavior of markets and firms in periods of extreme volatility. After presenting the story of the cotton futures price spike, this paper argues that explanations related to the funding liquidity of firms and the liquidity of the markets themselves may help us better understand market volatility. A simple model of futures market equilibrium in the presence of liquidity constraints demonstrates how prices can spike as fast as they did and why such spikes can drive firms to exit. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Futures; Hedging; Liquidity constraints; Cotton; Agribusiness; Financial Economics. |
| Ano: 2010 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61453 |
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| Sartwelle, James D., III; O'Brien, Daniel M.; Tierney, William I., Jr.; Eggers, Tim. |
| A survey of Kansas, Texas, and Iowa agricultural producers was taken to examine the factors affecting their grain marketing practices. Sales indices models and models of qualitative choice are used to determine whether marketers' choices of cash market, forward contract, or futures and options oriented marketing practices are significantly affected by their personal farm business characteristics. Results indicate that geographic location, farm size, grain enterprise specialization, farming experience, use of grain storage, and use of crop insurance have significant effects upon the respondents' choice of grain marketing practices. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Agricultural options; Cash marketing; Futures; Grain marketing practices; Multinomial logit; Tobit; Marketing. |
| Ano: 2000 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15396 |
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| Colino, Evelyn V.; Irwin, Scott H.; Garcia, Philip. |
| This study investigates the predictability of outlook hog price forecasts released by Iowa State University relative to alternative market and time-series forecasts. The findings suggest that predictive performance of the outlook hog price forecasts can be improved substantially. Under RMSE, VARs estimated with Bayesian procedures that allow for some degree of flexibility and model averaging consistently outperform Iowa outlook estimates at all forecast horizons. Evidence from the encompassing tests, which are highly stringent tests of forecast performance, indicates that many price forecasts do provide incremental information relative to Iowa. Simple combinations of these models and outlook forecasts are able to reduce forecast errors by economically... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Forecast; Futures; Models; Prices; Time-series; Vector autoregression; Agricultural Finance. |
| Ano: 2008 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37620 |
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| Frechette, Darren L.. |
| The optimal hedging portfolio is shown to include both futures and options under a variety of circumstances when the marginal cost of hedging is non-zero. Futures and options are treated as substitute goods, and properties of the resulting hedging demand system are explained. The overall optimal hedge ratio is shown to increase when the marginal cost of trading options is reduced. The overall optimal hedge ratio is shown to decrease when the marginal cost of trading futures is decreased. The implication is that hedging demand can be stimulated by reducing the perceived cost of trading options, by educating hedgers about options and by initiating programs like the Dairy Options Pilot Program. The demand systems approach is applied to estimate optimal... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Hedging; Options; Futures; Marketing. |
| Ano: 2000 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18941 |
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| Moschini, GianCarlo; Myers, Robert J.. |
| We develop a new multivariate GARCH parameterization that is suitable for testing the hypothesis that the optimal futures hedge ratio is constant over time, given that the joint distribution of cash and futures prices is characterized by autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity. The advantage of the new parameterization is that it allows for a flexible form of time-varying volatility, even under the null of a constant hedge ratio. The model is estimated using weekly corn prices. Statistical tests reject the null hypothesis of a constant hedge ratio and also reject the null that time variation in optimal hedge ratios can be explained solely by deterministic seasonality and time-to-maturity effects. |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity; Futures; Hedging; Marketing. |
| Ano: 2001 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18516 |
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| Manfredo, Mark R.; Richards, Timothy J.. |
| Agricultural cooperatives tend to be riskier than investor-oriented firms, both in a business and financial sense. However, cooperative managers are often reluctant to actively manage risk. Although the risk management irrelevance proposition suggests that cooperative managers should be unable to add shareholder value through risk management activities, this study argues that there are several reasons why this is not likely to be the case for cooperatives. Several empirical examples are provided through numerical simulation of pro-forma financial statements from representative agricultural cooperatives. Using mean variance, expected utility and value-at-risk metrics, the results of these simulations show that various risk management strategies can... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Cooperative; Expected utility; Futures; Option; Risk management; Value at risk.; Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28540 |
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| Strydom, D.B.; Grove, Bennie; Kruger, Y.; Willemse, B.J.. |
| The use of modern marketing strategies to minimize risk exposure is not a widely adopted practice under maize producers. The producers tend to use high risk strategies which include the selling of the crop on the cash market after harvested; while the current market requires innovative strategies including the use of Futures and Options as traded on SAFEX. However, due to a lack of interest and knowledge of producers understanding of modern, complicated strategies the study illustrates by using a SERF and CDF that the use of three basic strategies namely a Put-, Twelve-segment-, Three-segment- can be more rewarding. These strategies can be adopted by farmers without an in-depth understanding of the market and market-signals. The results obtained from the... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Marketing strategies; Futures; Options; SERF; Crop Production/Industries; Marketing. |
| Ano: 2010 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/96812 |
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| Registros recuperados: 29 | |
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