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| Registros recuperados: 25 | |
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| Manera, Matteo; Nicolini, Marcella; Vignati, Ilaria. |
| This paper analyses futures prices for four energy commodities (light sweet crude oil, heating oil, gasoline and natural gas) and five agricultural commodities (corn, oats, soybean oil, soybeans and wheat), over the period 1986-2010. Using CCC and DCC multivariate GARCH models, we find that financial speculation is poorly significant in modelling returns in commodities futures while macroeconomic factors help explaining returns in commodities futures. Moreover, spillovers between commodities are present and the conditional correlations among commodities are high and time-varying. |
| Tipo: Working Paper |
Palavras-chave: Energy; Commodities; Futures Markets; Financial Speculation; Multivariate GARCH; Financial Economics; C32; G13; Q11; Q43. |
| Ano: 2012 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122868 |
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| Ramaswami, Bharat; Singh, Jatinder. |
| Abstract The limited presence of futures exchanges in developing countries where commodity markets fall short of the ideal underscore the importance of understanding the relation between spot and futures markets. The paper examines the exceptional success of the soya oil contract at the National Board of Trade (NBOT) in India. The paper asks whether the NBOT contract exhibits the fundamental features of mature futures markets in terms of its use by hedgers. If the market offers arbitrage opportunities to hedgers and if such activity is significant, then the activities of commercial firms should affect the returns to their hedging portfolio i.e., change in basis. This insight is developed into an examination of the impact of soya oil imports on the basis.... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Basis; Hedging; Futures market; Spot markets; Soya oil; Marketing; G13; Q13. |
| Ano: 2007 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7919 |
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| Yoshino, Joe Akira. |
| We estimate in this paper the market risk implied by the prices of different options traded in the Brazilian stock market. The fundamental theory to handle this problem is the one implied by the Arrow-Debreu contingent claim concept. Using that theory, we are able to construct the term structure of market risk, and to obtain a surface that provides slices for a particular “volatility smile.” The methodology that we use follows the one proposed by Shimko (1993), which is able to calculate a non-lognormal probability density function (PDF) consistent with the volatility observed in a relatively small sample of option prices. This methodology goes beyond the one proposed originally by Black and Scholes (1973), since it does not require log-normality of the... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Arrow-Debreu contingent claim; Options; Black-Scholes; Market risk; Volatility; Brazilian stock market; Risk and Uncertainty; Marketing; G12; G13. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44000 |
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| Power, Gabriel J.; Turvey, Calum G.. |
| Long memory, and more precisely fractionally integration, has been put forward as an explanation for the persistence of shocks in a number of economic time series data as well as to reconcile misleading findings of unit roots in data that should be stationary. Recent evidence suggests that long memory characterizes not commodity futures prices but rather price volatility (generally defined as $L_p$ norms of price logreturns). One implication of long memory in volatility is the mispricing of options written on commodity futures, the consequence of which is that fractional Brownian motion should replace geometric Brownian motion as the building block for option pricing solutions. This paper asks whether findings of long memory in volatility might be spurious... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Q13; Q14; Marketing; C52; C53; G12; G13. |
| Ano: 2007 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9782 |
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| Fortenbery, T. Randall. |
| This paper examines three invited papers focused on commodity prices. Public responses to high nominal commodity prices and perceived increases in price risk have ranged from attempts to assign blame, attempts to change contracting arrangements, and development of public policy that ‘‘protects’’ the market from future occurrences of unacceptable behavior. Interestingly, a result of increased commodity price volatility has suggested that futures markets no longer ‘‘work.’’ This is ironic given that futures markets initially came into existence as tools for managing the negative impacts of commodity price risk. In response to perceptions of market failure some are looking for strategies to regulate the who and how of futures trading. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Futures markets; Hedging; Price risk; Risk management; Speculation; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty; G13; Q11; Q13; Q14. |
| Ano: 2009 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53084 |
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| Franken, Jason R.V.; Parcell, Joseph L.. |
| Increased use of alternative fuels and low commodity prices have contributed to the recent expansion of the U.S. ethanol industry. As with any competitive industry, some level of output price risk exists in the form of volatility; yet, no actively traded ethanol futures market exists to mitigate output price risk. This study reports estimated minimum variance cross-hedge ratios between Detroit spot cash ethanol and the New York Mercantile Exchange unleaded gasoline futures for 1-, 4-, 8-, 12-, 16-, 20-, 24-, and 28-week hedge horizons. The research suggests that a one-to-one cross-hedge ratio is not appropriate for some horizons. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Cross-hedging; Ethanol; Gas; G13; Q13; Q42. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43152 |
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| Manfredo, Mark R.; Richards, Timothy J.. |
| While there are few risk management alternatives available to specialty crop growers, weather derivatives provide an important advancement. As with the use of any derivatives contract, the behavior of the basis will ultimately determine the net-hedged outcome. However, when using weather derivatives to hedge yield risks for specialty crops, growers face a unique form of basis risk because weather (temperature) and yield are nonlinearly related. Using the forecast encompassing principle, this research shows that the nonlinear relationship between yield and weather creates a role for options in an optimal hedging program. The results suggest that weather derivative instruments with nonlinear payoffs, such as options, be used in combination with linear... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Weather Derivatives; Forecast Encompassing; Composite Hedges; Risk and Uncertainty; Q14; G13. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19369 |
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| Yoon, Byung-Sam; Brorsen, B. Wade. |
| Both market advisors and researchers have often suggested multiyear rollover hedging as a way to increase producer returns. This study determines whether rollover hedging can increase expected returns for producers. For rollover hedging to increase expected returns, futures prices must follow a mean-reverting process. To test for the existence of mean reversion in agricultural commodity prices, this study uses a longer set of price data and a wider range of test procedures than past research. With the use of both the return predictability test from long-horizon regression and the variance ratio test, we find that mean reversion does not exist in futures prices for corn, wheat, soybean, soybean oil, and soybean meal. The findings are consistent with... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Market efficiency; Mean reversion; Random walk; Rollover hedging; Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty; Q13; G13. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43713 |
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| Deng, Xiaohui; Barnett, Barry J.; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Yu, Yingzhuo; Garcia y Garcia, Axel. |
| Three index-based crop insurance contracts are evaluated for representative south Georgia corn farms. The insurance contracts considered are based on indexes of historical county yields, yields predicted from a cooling degree-day production model, and yields predicted from a crop-simulation model. For some of the representative farms, the predicted yield index contracts provide yield risk protection comparable to the contract based on historical county yields, especially at lower levels of risk aversion. The impact of constraints on index insurance choice variables is considered and important interactions among constrained, conditionally optimized, choice variables are analyzed. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Area yield insurance; Cooling degree days; DSSAT; Group risk plan; Agribusiness; Crop Production/Industries; G13; G22; Q12. |
| Ano: 2008 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/45521 |
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| Jou, Jyh-Bang; Lee, Tan. |
| This article compares the effects of various fiscal policies on choices of development timing and capital intensity when rents on housing follow geometric Brownian motion with those when rents follow arithmetic Brownian motion. These policy instruments include fees on capital, housing, and land, and taxes on urban income, and properties both before and after development. Regardless of the motion of rents, when one choice is fixed, the effects of these policy instruments on the other choice are qualitatively the same. When the two choices are determined endogenously, although these policy instruments exhibit the same qualitative effect on the choice of development timing, they may exhibit different effects on the choice of capital intensity if rents on... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Capital intensity; Development Timing; Fees; Taxation; Real Options; International Development; G13; H21; H23; R52. |
| Ano: 2007 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10352 |
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| Lanfranco, Bruno A.. |
| En la pasada década, Uruguay tuvo su primera experiencia con el mercado de futuros de novillos para faena (MFN), el que funcionó durante los últimos meses de 1993 y hasta comienzos de 1994. El hecho que el MFN no sobreviviera más que unos pocos meses no implica necesariamente que los mercados de futuros para ganado en pie sean inviables en nuestro país. En este trabajo se examinaron algunas de las posibles razones que pueden explicar su fracaso. Es posible que al momento de su implementación no estuvieran dadas todas las condiciones necesarias para su desarrollo. Un punto a develar es si el bajo volumen operado en el MFN se debió a condiciones estructurales inherentes a las economías pequeñas y, por ende, imposibles de modificar o si, por el contrario,... |
| Tipo: Book |
Palavras-chave: Financial markets; Live cattle; Livestock market; Agribusiness; Financial Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; D81; G13; G14. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/121755 |
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| Pedersen, Michael Friis. |
| Marketing of milk and meat in Denmark is dominated by two large cooperatives, Arla Foods in the dairy sector and Danish Crown in the pork sector. Members in these cooperatives practically have no possibility for price risk management on their main product. Futures markets for dairy and pork are not utilised, and it is suggested that the reason is prohibitively large basis risk. The events following the global financial crisis suggest increased need for price risk management in Danish agriculture. Since futures markets do not seem to be a viable solution, the paper explores an alternative. Reallocation of price risk among members in marketing cooperatives. Endowing members with a forward contracted share of delivery, and allowing for transfer at a market... |
| Tipo: Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Futures; Hedging; Risk management; Marketing cooperatives; Agribusiness; Risk and Uncertainty; G13; G32; Q13; D61; D8. |
| Ano: 2012 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122529 |
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| Registros recuperados: 25 | |
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