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| Homer-Dixon, Thomas; Balsillie School of International Affairs, University of Waterloo, Canada; tfhomer@uwaterloo.ca; Walker, Brian; CSIRO Land and Water, Australia; Brian.Walker@csiro.au; Biggs, Reinette; Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Sweden; Centre for Studies in Complexity, Stellenbosch University, South Africa; oonsie.biggs@su.se; Folke, Carl; Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Sweden; Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden; carl.folke@beijer.kva.se; Lambin, Eric F.; Earth and Life Institute, University of Louvain, Belgium; School of Earth, Energy & Environmental Sciences and Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, United States; elambin@stanford.edu; Peterson, Garry D.; Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Sweden; garry.peterson@su.se; Scheffer, Marten; Environmental Sciences, Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management, Wageningen Agricultural University, Netherlands; Marten.Scheffer@wur.nl; Steffen, Will; Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Sweden; Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University, Australia; will.steffen@anu.edu.au; Troell, Max; Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden; Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Sweden; max@beijer.kva.se. |
| Recent global crises reveal an emerging pattern of causation that could increasingly characterize the birth and progress of future global crises. A conceptual framework identifies this pattern’s deep causes, intermediate processes, and ultimate outcomes. The framework shows how multiple stresses can interact within a single social-ecological system to cause a shift in that system’s behavior, how simultaneous shifts of this kind in several largely discrete social-ecological systems can interact to cause a far larger intersystemic crisis, and how such a larger crisis can then rapidly propagate across multiple system boundaries to the global scale. Case studies of the 2008-2009 financial-energy and food-energy crises illustrate the... |
| Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Synthesis |
Palavras-chave: Climate change; Conventional oil; Financial system; Global crisis; Grain supply; Social-ecological system. |
| Ano: 2015 |
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