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Estimation Issues in Single Commodity Gravity Trade Models AgEcon
Prehn, Soren; Brümmer, Bernhard.
Recently gravity trade models are applied to disaggregated trade data. Here many zeros are characteristic. In the presence of excess zeros usual Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) is still consistent, the variance covariance matrix however is invalid. Correct economic interpretation however requires also the last. So alternative estimators are looked for. Staub & Winkelmann [2010] argue that zeroinflated count data models (i.e. zero-inflated Poisson / Negative Binomial Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (ZIPPML / ZINBPML)) are no alternative since under model misspecification these estimators are inconsistent. Yet zero-inflated Poisson Quasi- Likelihood (PQL) is a reliable alternative. It is consistent even under model misspecifications and beyond that...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Gravity Model; Homogeneous Firm Trade Model; Excess Zeros; Overdispersion; Negatively Skewed Distribution; Poisson Quasi Likelihood; Two Part Model; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114776
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ESTIMATION ISSUES IN SINGLE COMMODITY GRAVITY TRADE MODELS AgEcon
Prehn, Soren; Brümmer, Bernhard.
Recently gravity trade models are applied to disaggregated trade data. Here many zeros are characteristic. In the presence of excess zeros usual Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) is still consistent, the variance covariance matrix however is invalid. Correct economic interpretation however requires also the last. So alternative estimators are looked for. STAUB &WINKELMANN (2010) argue that zero-inflated count data models (i.e. zero-inflated Poisson / Negative Binomial Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (ZIPPML / ZINBPML)) are no alternative since under model misspecification these estimators are inconsistent. Yet zeroinflated Poisson Quasi-Likelihood (PQL) is a reliable alternative. It is consistent even under model misspecifications and beyond that...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Gravity Model; Excess Zeros; Poisson Quasi Likelihood; Generalised Two Part Model; Gravitationsmodell; Exzess an Nullen; Poisson Quasi Likelihood; Generalisiertes Zwei-Teile Modell; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Demand and Price Analysis; Financial Economics.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114524
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Agritourism flows to Italy: an analysis of determinants using the gravity model approach AgEcon
Santeramo, Fabio G.; Seccia, Antonio; De Blasi, Giuseppe; Carlucci, Domenico.
Tourism represents one of the most important income sources for Italy. In recent years, apart from “traditional” destinations, tourism supply is widely changing in order to satisfy the customers “love for variety” and valorise marginal resources, then new formulas are emerging (e.g. agritourism). This work aims to elaborate and estimate an econometric model able to adequately explain the size of agritourists flows to Italy from main partner countries using the gravity model approach that has been broadly applied to the analysis of international flows. In this work, the “basic” model has been enlarged and improved with the introduction of other explicative variables. The results has allowed to confirm empirical validity of the gravity model in studying...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Gravity Model; Agritourism; Rural tourism; Tourism flows; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6623
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Analysis of Italian High Quality Wine Exports using the Gravity Model Approach AgEcon
De Blasi, Giuseppe; Seccia, Antonio; Carlucci, Domenico; Santeramo, Fabio G..
Italian wine firms are facing a significant reduction in wine consumption and increasing competition in international markets. In fact, markets are becoming increasingly liberalized and producers of non-EU countries adopt even more aggressive strategies to increase their competitiveness. Nevertheless, demand for high quality wine which includes a large number of Italian wines, is increasing. The aim of this work is to explain the magnitude of the trade flows for high quality wine from Italy to its main importing countries. This objective has been reached by establishing an appropriate econometric model derived from an extended form of the “Gravity Model”. This model has been broadly applied to the analysis of international trade because it provides robust...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Gravity Model; High Quality Wine; Export Analysis; Italian Wine; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7901
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On the Green Side of Trade Competitiveness? Environmental Policies and Innovation in the EU AgEcon
Valeria, Costantini; Mazzanti, Massimiliano.
This paper aims to explore how the competitiveness of the EU economy, here captured by export dynamics over the medium run (1996-2007), has been affected by environmental regulation both on the public and private sector side. The strong and weak versions of the Porter hypothesis are tested by specifying the export dynamics of five aggregated manufacturing sectors classified by their technological or environmental content using a dynamic panel data estimator applied to a theoretically-based gravity model. When testing the strong version on export performances of manufacturing sectors, the overall effect of environmental policies does not conflict with export competitiveness. When testing the weak version using export flows of environmental goods,...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Environmental Policies; Porter Hypothesis; Technological Innovation; Export Performances; Gravity Model; European Union; Environmental Economics and Policy; F14; O14; Q43; Q56.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/92910
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Impact of Regulating Greenhouse Gas Emissions on US Cattle Industry and Trade Competitiveness AgEcon
Kim, Man-Keun; Pang, Arwin.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Cattle Export; Gravity Model; Greenhouse Gas Emission; Trade Competitiveness; International Relations/Trade; Livestock Production/Industries; F18; Q17; Q54.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103705
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What Gravity Models Can Tell Us about the Position of German FDI in Central and Eastern Europe AgEcon
Borrmann, Christine; Jungnickel, Rolf; Keller, Dietmar.
The tradition of gravity models is in the analysis of trade flows with market size and geographic or economic distance as core variables. Both these variables can be important determinants of FDI, too. However, when such models are used to explain FDI, there can be differences in the mode of operation of these variables so that the interpretation can become uncertain. Market size can reach beyond the host country and distance can be an incentive as well as an impediment to FDI. In the present paper, we use gravity-type models in order to assess the level of German FDI in CEE countries, distinguishing between the four nearby core countries and the other six EU accession countries. Estimates are done both on the basis of an in-sample as well as an...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Foreign Direct Investment; Gravity Model; Transformation Countries; International Relations/Trade; F200; F230.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/26386
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