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Registros recuperados: 9
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Climate Policy When the Distant Future Matters: Catastrophic Events with Hyperbolic Discounting AgEcon
Karp, Larry S.; Tsur, Yacov.
Low probability catastrophic climate change can have a significant influence on policy under hyperbolic discounting. We compare the set of Markov Perfect Equilibria (MPE) to the optimal policy under time-consistent commitment. For some initial levels of risk there are multiple MPE; these may involve either excessive or insufficient stabilization effort. These results imply that even if the free-rider problem amongst contemporaneous decision-makers were solved, there may remain a coordination problem amongst successive generations of decision-makers. A numerical example shows that under plausible conditions society should respond vigorously to the threat of climate change.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Abrupt climate change; Event uncertainty; Catastrophic risk; Hyperbolic discounting; Markov Perfect Equilibria; Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; C61; C73; D63; D99; Q54.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7186
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CLIMATE POLICY WHEN THE DISTANT FUTURE MATTERS: CATASTROPHIC EVENTS WITH HYPERBOLIC DISCOUNTING AgEcon
Karp, Larry S.; Tsur, Yacov.
Low probability catastrophic climate change can have a signifcant influence on policy under hyperbolic discounting. We compare the set of Markov Perfect Equilibria (MPE) to the optimal policy under time-consistent commitment. For some initial levels of risk there are multiple MPE; these may involve either excessive or insufficient stabilization effort. These results imply that even if the free-rider problem amongst contemporaneous decision-makers were solved, there may remain a coordination problem amongst successive generations of decision-makers. A numerical example shows that under plausible conditions society should respond vigorously to the threat of climate change.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Abrupt climate change; Event uncertainty; Catastrophic risk; Hyperbolic discounting; Markov Perfect Equilibria; Environmental Economics and Policy; C61; C73; D63; D99; Q54.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7181
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Time perspective and climate change policy AgEcon
Karp, Larry S.; Tsur, Yacov.
The tendency to foreshorten time units as we peer further into the future provides an explanation for hyperbolic discounting at an intergenerational time scale. We study implications of hyperbolic discounting for climate change policy, when the probability of a climate-induced catastrophe depends on the stock of greenhouse gasses. We provide a positive analysis by characterizing the set of Markov perfect equilibria (MPE) of the intergenerational game amongst a succession of policymakers. Each policymaker reflects her generation’s preferences, including its hyperbolic discounting. For a binary action game, we compare the MPE set to a “restricted commitment” benchmark. We compare the associated “constant equivalent discount rates” and the willingness to pay...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Hyperbolic discounting; Markov Perfect Equilibria; Catastrophic climate change; Uncertainty; Environmental Economics and Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; C61; C73; D63; D99; Q54.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42848
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Non-Constant Discounting in Continuous Time AgEcon
Karp, Larry S..
This note derives the dynamic programming equation (DPE) to a differentiable Markov Perfect equilibrium in a problem with non-constant discounting and general functional forms. We begin with a discrete stage model and take the limit as the length of the stage goes to 0 to obtain the DPE corresponding to the continuous time problem. We characterize the multiplicity of equilibria under non-constant discounting and discuss the relation between a given equilibrium of that model and the unique equilibrium of a related problem with constant discounting. We calculate the bounds of the set of candidate steady states and we Pareto rank the equilibria.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Hyperbolic discounting; Time consistency; Markov equilibria; Non-uniqueness; Observational equivalence; Pareto efficiency; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; D83; L50.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25050
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Sacrifice, discounting and climate policy: five questions AgEcon
Karp, Larry S..
I provide a selective review of discounting and climate policy. After reviewing evidence on the importance of the discount rate in setting policy, I ask whether standard models tend to exaggerate the sacrifices that the current generation needs to undertake in order to internalize climate damages. I then consider whether the risk of catastrophic damage really overwhelms discounting, in the determination of optimal policy. I revisit the question of how we actually think about the distant future.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Climate change; Discounting; Intergenerational conflict; Catastrophic risk; Hyperbolic discounting; Environmental Economics and Policy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; C61; C73; D63; D99; Q54.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51612
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Hyperbolic discounting in analyzing investment in groundwater irrigation in India AgEcon
Chandrakanth, Mysore G.; Rashmi, N.; Chandrashekar, H.; Nagaraj, N..
Researchers are often confronted with the choice of discount rate as well as the method of discounting for estimating the amortized cost of long-term investment in agriculture including groundwater irrigation. The obvious choice is to use the opportunity cost of capital, which is the prevailing interest rate of around 9 percent (compounded – exponential basis), charged on longterm agriculture loans. However, using the ‘exponential’ basis does not provide a realistic amortized cost of irrigation as it over estimates the value of investment due to ‘exponential’ basis as demonstrated above. In order to obtain an empirical estimate of this interest rate, using field data from farmers three dry agro-climatic zones of Karnataka (Shamsundar (1996), Sripadmini...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Hyperbolic discounting; Groundwater; Exponential; Environmental Economics and Policy; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; D9; Q25; M4.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43626
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Read This Paper Even Later: Procrastination with Time-Inconsistent Preferences AgEcon
Fischer, Carolyn.
Salience costs, along with imperfect foresight, have been used in previous studies to explain procrastination of a one-time task. A companion to this paper, "Read This Paper Later: Procrastination with Time-Consistent Preferences" analyzes the extent to which procrastination of a divisible task is compatible with rational behavior. While the fully rational model explains key qualitative observations, it requires an extremely high rate of time preference or elasticity of intertemporal substitution to generate serious procrastination and cannot explain undesired procrastination at all. This paper investigates the extent to which dynamically inconsistent preferences can better explain such impatience and address the issue of self-control failures. Two types...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Procrastination; Natural resource economics; Hyperbolic discounting; Differential discounting; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; Q3; D9; J22; J31.
Ano: 1999 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10725
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Equilibrium management of fisheries with altruistic overlapping generations AgEcon
Ekeland, Ivar; Karp, Larry S.; Sumaila, Ussif Rashid.
We imbed a classic fishery model, where the optimal policy follows a Most Rapid Approach Path to a steady state, into an overlapping generations setting. The current generation discounts future generations’ utility flows at a rate possibly different from the pure rate of time preference used to discount their own utility flows. The resulting model has non-constant discount rates, leading to time inconsistency. The unique Markov Perfect equilibrium to this model has a striking feature: provided that the current generation has some concern for the not-yet born, the equilibrium policy does not depend on the degree of that concern.
Tipo: Working Paper Palavras-chave: Fisheries management; Sustainable development; Renewable resources; Time inconsistency; Hyperbolic discounting; Production Economics; Q01; Q22; C 61.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/123635
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Global Warming and Hyperbolic Discounting AgEcon
Karp, Larry S..
The use of a constant discount rate to study long-lived environmental problems such as global warming has two disadvantages: the prescribed policy is sensitive to the discount rate, and with moderate discount rates, large future damages have almost no effect on current decisions. Time-consistent quasi-hyperbolic discounting alleviates both of these modeling problems, and is a plausible description of how people think about the future. We analyze the time-consistent Markov Perfect equilibrium in a general model with a stock pollutant. The solution to the linear-quadratic specialization illustrates the role of hyperbolic discounting in a model of global warming.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Stock pollutant; Hyperbolic discounting; Global warming; Time consistency; Environmental Economics and Policy; D83; L50.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25069
Registros recuperados: 9
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