Arkansas cropping pattern changes at the county level were estimated under various scenarios involving a likely decline in water availability, the development of a biomass market for renewable energy production, and the potential of a widely used carbon offset market. These scenarios are analyzed separately and jointly to determine which of the three scenarios is expected to have the largest impact on net (emissions – sequestration) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, renewable fuels feedstock supply, and producer net returns. Land use choices included conventional crops of rice, cotton, soybean, corn, grain sorghum, pasture, and hay. Specialty crops of loblolly pine and switchgrass were modeled for their respective potential to sequester carbon and provide... |