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| Sanders, Dwight R.; Manfredo, Mark R.. |
| One-step-ahead forecasts of quarterly live cattle, live hog, and broiler prices are evaluated under two general approaches: accuracy-based measures and classification based measures which test the ability to categorize price movements directionally or within a forecasted range. Results suggest U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) price forecasts are not optimal. Broiler price forecasts are biased, and all the forecast series tend to repeat errors. While the USDA forecasts are more accurate than those of a univariate AR(4) time-series model, evidence suggests the USDA live cattle forecasts could be improved with a composite forecast that includes a time-series alternative. Despite this, the USDA correctly identifies the direction of price change in at... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Forecast efficiency; Forecast evaluation; Livestock prices; USDA forecasts; Livestock Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31101 |
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| Tonsor, Glynn T.; Khuyvetter, Kevin C.; Mintert, James R.. |
| The ability to accurately forecast basis is crucial to risk management strategies employed by many agribusiness firms. Previous research has examined how to effectively use basis forecasts and what factors affect basis, but literature focusing on forecasting basis is sparse. This research evaluates the impact of adopting a time-to-expiration approach, as compared to the more common calendar approach, when forecasting feeder cattle, live cattle, and hog basis. Furthermore, the optimal number of past year's basis levels to include in making basis predictions is evaluated in an out-of-sample framework. Absolute basis forecasts errors are generated for all three commodities and evaluated to determine the signifcance of the two issues mentioned above.... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Livestock prices; Basis; Hedging; Basis forecasts; Livestock Production/Industries; Marketing. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18978 |
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| Sanders, Dwight R.; Manfredo, Mark R.. |
| This research presents a systematic and unified approach to evaluating forecast rationality that considers the potential of nonstationarity in forecasts and realized values. The approach is applied to one-quarter ahead U.S. Department of Agriculture livestock price forecasts from 1982 through 2004. Results show that forecasts and realized prices are integrated of the same order, and those that are nonstationary are cointegrated. However, the stationary price forecasts for hogs, turkeys, eggs, and milk are biased and improperly scaled, and forecast errors tend to be repeated. Similarly, nonstationary forecasts for cattle and broilers are also biased and irrational in the long run, but short-run dynamics are rational. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Forecast evaluation; Livestock prices; Rationality; Livestock Production/Industries; C53; Q13. |
| Ano: 2007 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6658 |
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| Marsh, John M.; Brester, Gary W.. |
| An econometric model is used to estimate real wholesale-retail marketing margins for beef and pork. From 1970 to 1998, these margins increased by 27% and 149%, while farm-wholesale margins declined. Wholesale-retail (WR) marketing margin increases have caused livestock producers to focus on the retail sector as a contributor to declining real livestock prices. Increases in WR margins may be related to increased demand and costs of value-added food products/services as well as increased market concentration in the retail grocery sector. Results indicate that retail factors, and to a lesser extent meat processing factors, significantly increased WR margins and decreased livestock prices. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Livestock prices; Retail concentration; Retail costs; Wholesale-retail marketing margins; Demand and Price Analysis. |
| Ano: 2004 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31139 |
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