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Mattos, Fabio; Garcia, Philip; Pennings, Joost M.E.. |
This paper investigates the dynamics of sequential decision-making in agricultural futures and options markets. Analysis of trading records of 12 traders identified considerable heterogeneity in individual dynamic trading behavior. Using risk measures derived from the deltas and vegas of trader’s portfolios, we find nearly half the traders behavior is consistent with a house-money effect and the other half with loss aversion. These findings correspond closely to expected behavior inferred from elicited utility and probability weighting functions. The results call into question more aggregate findings that discount probability weighting to develop risk measures which support the notion of more uniform, less heterogeneous, behavior. Understanding behavior in... |
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Loss aversion; House-money effect; Futures; Options; Agricultural Finance. |
Ano: 2008 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37605 |
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Yesuf, Mahmud; Bluffstone, Randall. |
Production systems in low-income developing countries are generally poorly diversified, focusing on rainfed staple crop production and raising livestock. These activities are inherently risky and investment and production decisions by farm households are therefore made within environments that are affected by risk. Because of poorly developed or absent credit and insurance markets it is difficult to pass any of these risks to a third party. As a result, it is often found that even when the expected net return is high, households are reluctant to adopt new agricultural technologies when they involve risk. Better understanding risk behavior will be essential for identifying appropriate farm-level strategies for adaptation to climate change by low-income... |
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Ethiopian farm households; Experimental studies; Loss aversion; Risk aversion; Risk and Uncertainty. |
Ano: 2007 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42398 |
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