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A BAYESIAN ALTERNATIVE TO GENERALIZED CROSS ENTROPY SOLUTIONS FOR UNDERDETERMINED ECONOMETRIC MODELS AgEcon
Heckelei, Thomas; Mittelhammer, Ronald C.; Jansson, Torbjorn.
This paper presents a Bayesian alternative to Generalized Maximum Entropy (GME) and Generalized Cross Entropy (GCE) methods for deriving solutions to econometric models represented by underdetermined systems of equations. For certain types of econometric model specifications, the Bayesian approach provides fully equivalent results to GME-GCE techniques. However, in its general form, the proposed Bayesian methodology allows a more direct and straightforwardly interpretable formulation of available prior information and can reduce significantly the computational effort involved in finding solutions. The technique can be adapted to provide solutions in situations characterized by either informative or uninformative prior information.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Underdetermined Equation Systems; Maximum Entropy; Bayesian Priors; Structural Estimation; Calibration; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; C11; C13; C51.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56973
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The Effect of the El Nino Southern Oscillation on U.S. Corn Production and Downside Risk AgEcon
Tack, Jesse B.; Ubilava, David.
El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections imply anomalous weather conditions around the globe, causing yield shortages, price changes, and even civil unrests. Extreme ENSO events may cause catastrophic damages to crop yields, thus amplifying downside risk for producers. This study presents a framework for quantifying the effects of climate on crop yield distributions. An empirical application provides estimates of the effect that ENSO events have on the means of U.S. county-level corn yield distributions, as well as the probabilities of catastrophic crop loss. Our findings demonstrate that ENSO events strongly influence these probabilities systematically over large production regions, which has important implications for research and policy...
Tipo: Presentation Palavras-chave: Climate; El Nino Southern Oscillation; Maximum Entropy; Risk Management; Yield Distribution; Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy; Production Economics.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/119785
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Full Product Costs on Base of Farm Accountancy Data by Means of Maximum Entropy AgEcon
Lips, Markus.
The paper presents an approach to allocate joint costs to production branches based on maximum entropy. Using bookkeeping data from the Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) we derive full product costs. Accordingly, the suggested approach offers the opportunity of full product costs based on actual costing rather than normal costing. The approach is applied for arable crop in Switzerland providing full product costs on a hectare base. The resulting total costs are up to 20 percent higher than in literature. An important reason is labour, which shows for all analysed production branches higher costs than in the actual costing based literature.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Full Product Costs; Maximum Entropy; FADN; Arable Crops; Farm Management; M41; Q12.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51088
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