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Dealing with Uncertainty in Flood Management Through Diversification Ecology and Society
Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; ; jeroen.aerts@ivm.falw.vu.nl; Botzen, Wouter; ; Wouter.Botzen@ivm.falw.vu.nl; Veen, Anne van der; ; a.vanderveen@ctw.utwente.nl; Krywkow, Joerg; ; j.krywkow@ctw.utwente.nl; Werners, Saskia; ; Saskia.Werners@wur.nl.
This paper shows, through a numerical example, how to develop portfolios of flood management activities that generate the highest return under an acceptable risk for an area in the central part of the Netherlands. The paper shows a method based on Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) that contributes to developing flood management strategies. MPT aims at finding sets of investments that diversify risks thereby reducing the overall risk of the total portfolio of investments. This paper shows that through systematically combining four different flood protection measures in portfolios containing three or four measures; risk is reduced compared with portfolios that only contain one or two measures. Adding partly uncorrelated measures to the portfolio diversifies...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Adaptive water management; Diversification; Flood risk; Modern Portfolio Theory; Uncertainty; Vulnerability..
Ano: 2008
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