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| Registros recuperados: 37 | |
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| Rochet, Marie-joelle; Rice, Jake C.. |
| Simulation-based management strategy evaluations are increasingly developed and used for science advice in support of fisheries management, along with risk evaluation and decision analysis. These methods tackle the problem of uncertainty in fisheries systems and data by modelling uncertainty in two ways. For quantities that are difficult to measure accurately or are inherently variable, variables are replaced by probability distributions, and system dynamics are simulated by Monte Carlo simulations, drawing numbers from these distributions. For processes that are not fully understood, arrays of model formulations that might underlie the observed patterns are developed, each is assumed successively, and the results of the corresponding arrays of model... |
| Tipo: Text |
Palavras-chave: Uncertainty; Risk estimates; Monte Carlo simulation; Management strategy evaluation. |
| Ano: 2009 |
URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/2009/publication-6361.pdf |
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| Leynaud, Didier; Sultan, Nabil. |
| Recent geophysical and geotechnical data acquired on the Nice shelf to the east of the 1979 landslide source area, Suggest slow deformations processes which could lead to future catastrophic slope failure. According to these preliminary interpretations, it is of major interest to perform a slope stability evaluation to define the hazard and quantify the danger related to a probable instability on this slope. A probabilistic approach is proposed here using a modified version of the SAMU_3D model, a 3-D slope stability software recently developed by Sultan and others to account for complex geometry. The 3-D analysis is based on the upper bound theorem of plasticity developed by Chen and others. One of the main features of the original model is to allow... |
| Tipo: Text |
Palavras-chave: Probabilistic analysis; Slope stability; Monte Carlo simulation; Shear zone. |
| Ano: 2010 |
URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00002/11290/7828.pdf |
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| Lips, Markus; Bolli, Simon. |
| In eastern Switzerland there is a substantial weather risk during the wheat harvest. Increasing the number of available combine harvesters reduces harvest losses due to bad weather conditions, whilst increasing machinery costs. Simulating weather risk, we analyse harvest losses and machinery costs. In doing so, we apply both a deterministic and a stochastic approach the latter by means of a Monte Carlo simulation. The costs per hectare of wheat are higher in the stochastic approach, because bad weather conditions lead to high costs. There is no difference between the two approaches in terms of minimum costs, which in both cases are achieved by a density of 20 harvesters per 1000 hectares. Calculation results are lower than the actual density, which is... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Weather risk; Wheat harvest; Monte Carlo simulation; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2007 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9249 |
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| Hyde, Jeffrey; Martin, Marshall A.; Preckel, Paul V.; Buschman, Lawrent L.; Edwards, C. Richard; Sloderbeck, Phillip E.; Higgins, Randall A.. |
| While most Corn Belt farmers consider planting Bt corn to control European corn borer, southwestern Kansas farmers must also take into account an array of other insect pests, including corn rootworm, spider mites, and southwestern corn borer. This research uses a decision analysis framework to estimate the expected economic value of Bt corn in southwest Kansas. Mean per acre Bt values ranged from $12.49 to $34.60, well above the technology fee assumed to be $14 per unit, or $5.25 per acre at a seeding rate of 30,000 seeds per acre. The minimum value over all scenarios was $8.69 per acre. Using Monte Carlo simulation, it was shown that European and southwestern corn borer infestation probabilities, expected corn price, and expected pest-free yields are... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Bt corn; Decision analysis; European corn borer; Integrated pest management; Monte Carlo simulation; Southwestern corn borer; Crop Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30721 |
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| Pedreira, Ernani Macedo; Cardoso, Carlos Estevao Leite; Guerreiro, Mariana Sampaio Silva; Almeida, Otavio Alvares De; Souza, Luiz Francisco Da Silva. |
| O abacaxizeiro é uma planta de clima tropical, que apresenta crescimento adequado em grande parte das condições climáticas encontradas no Brasil, sobretudo na Bahia. No entanto necessita de chuvas bem distribuídas para não prejudicar seu crescimento e/ou desenvolvimento e, conseqüentemente, a produção. Este trabalho objetiva avaliar a viabilidade financeira do sistema de produção da cultura do abacaxi irrigado, em condições de risco. A metodologia utilizada consistiu no levantamento de dados primários, referentes aos vetores de preços dos insumos e dos produtos. Com base na matriz de coeficientes técnicos realizou-se a análise de rentabilidade em condições determinística e em condições de risco, utilizando-se o método de simulação de Monte Carlo. A partir... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Viabilidade econômica; Simulação Monte Carlo; Semi-árido; Economic viability; Monte Carlo simulation; Semi-arid; Crop Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 2008 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/112695 |
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| Richardson, James W.; Outlaw, Joe L.. |
| The provision for producers to update base acres and payment yields in the 2002 farm bill afforded an opportunity to test whether it was feasible to deliver a complex simulation model directly to producers. A Monte Carlo simulation model for assessing the economic impacts of the alternative base and yield options on individual farms was developed and made available to producers via the World Wide Web. The experiences and challenges from this collaborative extension and research effort are described, as well as the issues educators might consider before delivering complex software to a national audience via the Web. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Base and yield update; 2002 farm bill; Monte Carlo simulation; C15; D83; Q12; Q16. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43517 |
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| Ceddia, M. Graziano; Bartlett, Mark; Perrings, Charles. |
| Pollen-mediated gene flow is one of the main concerns associated with the introduction of genetically modified (GM) crops, since growers of GM varieties normally do not take into account its possible impact on conventional and organic growers therefore generating negative externalities. Should a premium for non-GM varieties emerge on the market, 'contamination' with GM pollen would generate a revenue loss for growers of non-GM varieties. The existence of such externalities has led the European Union (EU) to put forward the concept of coexistence in order to guarantee farmers' freedom to plant both conventional and GM varieties without generating economic losses to conventional farmers. The first part of this paper develops a simple economic model analysing... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Coexistence; Pollen-mediated gene flow; Monte Carlo simulation; Crop Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 2008 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44193 |
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| Sung, Hwansoo; Shortle, James S.. |
| There is considerable interest in watershed-based water quality protection. However, the approach can be highly information intensive, necessitating decisions about the types and amounts of data used to guide decisions. This study examines the Bayesian value of different types and amounts of sample information for reducing nutrient pollution in the Conestoga watershed of Pennsylvania, focusing on nitrogen from agricultural sources. Uncertainty is modeled from the perspective of a social planner seeking to maximize the economic efficiency of water quality control. A nested Monte Carlo procedure combined with an Evolutionary Optimization Strategy with Covariance Matrix Adaptation is used to compute resource allocation that optimizes the expected net benefit... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Water quality management; Value of sample information; Monte Carlo simulation; Environmental Economics and Policy. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21296 |
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| Hyytiainen, Kari; Ahtiainen, Heini; Heikkila, Jaakko; Helin, Janne; Huhtala, Anni; Iho, Antti; Koikkalainen, Kauko; Miettinen, Antti; Pouta, Eija; Vesterinen, Janne. |
| This study introduces a prototype model for evaluating policies to abate agricultural nutrients in the Baltic Sea from a Finnish national point of view. The stochastic simulation model integrates nutrient dynamics of nitrogen and phosphorus in the sea basins adjoining the Finnish coast, nutrient loads from land and other sources, benefits from nutrient abatement (in the form of recreation and other ecosystem services) and the costs of agricultural abatement activities. The aim of this study is to present the overall structure of the model and to demonstrate its potential using preliminary parameters. The model is made flexible for further improvements in all of its ecological and economic components. Results of a sensitivity analysis suggest that... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Ecosystem services; Nutrient abatement; Monte Carlo simulation; Recreation; Valuation; Environmental Economics and Policy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods. |
| Ano: 2009 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49896 |
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| Registros recuperados: 37 | |
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