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Assessing the Uncertainty of Land Based Carbon Sequestration: A Parameter Uncertainty Analysis with a Global Land Use Model AgEcon
Kim, Yoon Hyung; Sohngen, Brent.
This paper analyzes the effect of uncertainty in several key parameters on the marginal costs of carbon sequestration in forests. These parameters include the land supply elasticity, which governs the conversion of land from agriculture to forests and vice versa; parameters of the forest biomass yield function; parameters of the forest carbon density function; and parameters of the costs functions for accessing inaccessible land. Monte Carlo techniques are thus used to turn the global forest model with no probability (e.g., Sohngen & Mendelsohn, 2003; 2007) into a proper probability model through Latin hypercube sampling. For this paper, we have restricted our analysis to consideration of probability distributions for only two of the parameters...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Uncertainty Analysis; Global Land Use Model; Carbon Sequestration; Monte Carlo simulations; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49416
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Alternative Land Use Policies: Real Options with Costly Reversibility AgEcon
Song, Feng; Zhao, Jinhua; Swinton, Scott M..
This paper adopts a real options framework to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of four types of subsidies that aim to encourage a socially desirable land use under return uncertainties and costly reversibility of land use change. We first present a land conversion model to show how the subsidies that are expected net present value (ENPV) equivalent can change a representative farmer’s optimal land conversion rules differently for converting land into an alternative use as well as converting out of it. This is because these subsidies affect the land conversion costs, land return level and uncertainty differently. Then in the context of encouraging energy crop production, we compare the probabilities of inducing the representative farmer to convert land from...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Monte Carlo simulations; Real options; Agricultural subsidies; Cost-effectiveness; Two-way land conversion; Agricultural and Food Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q24; Q48.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61510
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Does economic endogeneity of site facilities in recreation demand models lead to statistical endogeneity? AgEcon
Chen, Min; Lupi, Frank.
Different kinds of endogeneity problems in Random Utility Models of recreation demand have been studied in previous literature. Some site characteristics, like facilities, could be endogenous in an economic sense due to the interplay of supply and demand. That is, it may be that more popular recreation sites tend to have better site characteristics since managers with limited budgets would be more willing to invest in them. If recreation site improvements are more likely to occur at the more popular sites, then might this economic endogeneity cause problems for econometric models linking site demand to facilities. In this paper, we use Monte Carlo simulations to test whether this economic endogeneity will lead to statistical endogeneity.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Random Utility Models; Facilities; Endogeneity; Monte Carlo simulations; Environmental Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49449
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Does Economic Endogeneity of Site Facilities in Recreation Demand Models Lead to Statistical Endogeneity? AgEcon
Chen, Min.
Random Utility Models of recreation demand are widely used to relate demand and value to the characteristics of recreation sites. Although some kinds of endogeneity problems have been studied in previous literature, no study has addressed the potential problem with site characteristics that are endogenously supplied. Some site characteristics, like facilities, could be endogenous in an economic sense due to the interplay of supply and demand. That is, more popular recreation sites tend to have better site characteristics since managers with limited budgets would be more willing to invest in them. If recreation site improvements are more likely to occur at the more popular sites, then this economic endogeneity might cause problems for econometric models...
Tipo: Thesis or Dissertation Palavras-chave: Random Utility Maximization models; Facilities; Endogeneity; Monte Carlo simulations; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q51.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/55808
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The modified Mann-Kendall test: on the performance of three variance correction approaches Bragantia
Blain,Gabriel Constantino.
The Mann-Kendall test has been used to detect climate trends in several parts of the Globe. Three variance correction approaches (MKD, MKDD and MKRD) have been proposed to remove the influence of serial correlation on this trend test. Thus, the main goal of this study was to evaluate the probability of occurrence of types I and II errors associated with these three approaches. The results obtained by means of Monte Carlo simulations and from a case of study allowed us to drawn the following conclusions: All approaches are capable of meeting the adopted significant level when they are applied to trend-free uncorrelated series. The approaches are as powerful as the original MK test when they are applied to uncorrelated series. Regarding serially correlated...
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article Palavras-chave: Monte Carlo simulations; Serial correlation; Climate change.
Ano: 2013 URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0006-87052013000400014
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