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Land Conversion Pace under Uncertainty and Irreversibility: too fast or too slow? AgEcon
Di Corato, Luca; Moretto, Michele; Vergalli, Sergio.
In this paper stochastic dynamic programming is used to investigate land conversion decisions taken by a multitude of landholders under uncertainty about the value of environmental services and irreversible development. We study land conversion under competition on the market for agricultural products when voluntary and mandatory measures are combined by the Government to induce adequate participation in a conservation plan. We study the impact of uncertainty on the optimal conversion policy and discuss conversion dynamics under different policy scenarios on the basis of the relative long-run expected rate of deforestation. Interestingly, we show that uncertainty, even if it induces conversion postponement in the short-run, increases the average rate of...
Tipo: Working Paper Palavras-chave: Optimal Stopping; Deforestation; Payments for Environmental Services; Natural Resources Management; Risk and Uncertainty; C61; D81; Q24; Q58.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/119107
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The Optimal Season Length for a Sugar Mill in the Australian Sugar Industry AgEcon
Beard, Rodney; Wegener, Malcolm K..
In this paper we present a model of the optimal crushing season length for sugar cane. The approach taken is to view the optimal season length problem as an optimal stopping problem for both the Mill and a representative grower. We formulate the optimal stopping problems for both Mill and grower based on \real option" theory using Ito calculus. Because the interests of the Mill and growers do not coincide this results in a stochastic differential game of optimal stopping. We solve the model numerically using a finite difference algorithm.
Tipo: Presentation Palavras-chave: Sugarcane Harvesting; Seasonality; Real Option Theory; Optimal Stopping; Ito Calculus; Stochastic Differential Games.; Production Economics.
Ano: 1999 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/123762
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