SABIIA - Sistema Aberto e Integrado de Informação em Agricultura (Sabiia)

Gracia, Azucena; de Magistris, Tiziana; Casado, Jose Maria.

The aim of the paper is to provide an econometric, dynamic, multi-product and partial equilibrium model for the Spanish agriculture able to analyse the effects of the SFP and subsequent reforms in both the irrigated and non-irrigated cultivation. In the case of the EU Mediterranean countries, irrigated agriculture is very relevant because farmers in irrigated land get higher productivity and returns. However, irrigation is also the source of a number of environmental concerns, such as over-abstraction of water from subterranean aquifers, irrigation driven erosion, soil salinisation, etc.. The new decoupling direct payments from production will reduce many of the incentives to intensive production. The developed model is called Spanish Econometric...

INCORPORATING BIOFUELS INTO A PARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL OF THE EU AGRICULTURAL SECTOR

Palavras-chave: CAP reform; Partial equilibrium model; Policy modelling; Irrigated Agriculture; Simulation; Agricultural and Food Policy; Land Economics/Use; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6590

Binfield, Julian C.R.; Westhoff, Patrick C.; Le Cadre, Elodie.

The impact of increased consumption of biofuels on agricultural markets has already been substantial, and will increase further as countries around the world seek to expand the proportion of their energy that they get from renewable sources. Models of the agricultural sector must therefore include some consideration of the demand for agricultural products for biofuels and the byproducts that are produced as part of the production process that are returned to the agricultural sector. In this paper the method of introducing biofuels into the FAPRI GOLD (grains, oilseeds, livestock and dairy) model is discussed. A scenario is run whereby the EU is assumed to introduce a binding 10% target by 2020 and the results are discussed in order to illustrate the...

The olive oil and cotton lint sectors in the European Union

Palavras-chave: Biofuels; Partial equilibrium model; Agricultural sector; EU policy; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6680

Clapan, Carmen; Periklis, Drakos; Gadanakis, Yiorgos; Baourakis, George.

This paper examines and analyzes the impacts of the reformed CAP as well as the decisions of the new round of negotiations for the olive oil and cotton sectors in the European Union. The aim of this study is to estimate the changes in supply (agricultural supply plus intermediate demand and final production), demand (consumption), price and stock formation (import, export, beginning and ending stocks, national price formation) for both the olive oil and cotton sectors. The model designed for this purpose is partial equilibrium and policy oriented. The objectives of this model are to estimate changes in the production and consumption of the two products concerned, to determine how the reformed Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and the new round of...

Introducing Different Land Uses (Irrigated and Non-Irrigated) in Policy Analysis Modelling for Mediterranean Countries

Palavras-chave: Olive oil; Cotton CAP; Trade; Socio economic effects; Partial equilibrium model; Dynamic; Multi market; Synthetic; Policy oriented simulation model; Crop Production/Industries.

Ano: 2006

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10079

Casado, Jose Maria; Gracia, Azucena.

The arable crop sector in Spain is highly dependent of the Community subsidies and account for 33% of total transfers received by the Community. Then, it is expected that the introduction of the Single Farm Payment (SFP) will drive important changes in the arable crop production in Spain. The quantitative assessment of the SFP impacts on the arable crop sector in Spain is the overall objective of this paper. To achieve this goal, an econometric, dynamic, multi-product and partial equilibrium commodity model has been built disaggregating between irrigated and non-irrigated land use for cereals called Spanish Econometric Simulation of Agricultural Policies (SESAP). Results indicated that the introduction of the SFP has only induced considerable changes...

EU Dairy Sector: Impact of Luxemburg Reform, EU Enlargement and Trade Negotiations

Palavras-chave: CAP reform; Partial equilibrium model; Policy modelling; Irrigated agriculture; Simulation; Land Economics/Use; Q12; Q18.

Ano: 2006

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25709

Bouamra-Mechemache, Zohra; Ali-Kein, Hela Hadj; Jongeneel, Roelof A.; Tonini, Axel; Requillart, Vincent.

The EU dairy sector is facing a period of significant changes that are due to three major decisions: the EU enlargement, the Luxembourg reform and on-going WTO negotiations. To evaluate the impact of such changes we developed a model of the EU and world dairy industry. The model is composed of two modules that interact: a milk and beef supply module and a dairy industry module. In this paper we present the model and focus on elements that are crucial for a better understanding of the impact of reforms: quota rents in the EU, evolution of production in the new member states and trade policy.

The Welfare Effects of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in German Pork Production

Palavras-chave: Agricultural policy; Dairy industry; Partial equilibrium model; International Relations/Trade; C21; Q13; Q18.

Ano: 2005

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24581

Heinrich, Barbara; von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan.

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are an externality of the pork production process. To respond to climate change concerns and reduce GHG emissions, internalizing this external effect using a market-based economic instrument would be economically efficient. We calculate the welfare effects of GHG emissions using a partial equilibrium model of the German pork market. Sensitivity analysis is used to investigate the impacts of emission prices and emission rates on the welfare effects of reducing GHG emissions. Potential overall welfare gains amount to roughly € 360,000 in the base setting and increase to roughly € 3 million when emission prices are tripled. This sensitivity highlights the need for more dependable estimates of key parameters such as emission...

An Economic Assessment of the BSE Crisis in Canada: Impact of Border Closure and BSE Recovery Programs

Palavras-chave: Welfare effects; Greenhouse gas emissions; Pork production; Partial equilibrium model; Environmental Economics and Policy; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; H23; Q18; Q54.

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/108793

Weerahewa, Jeevika; Meilke, Karl D.; Le Roy, Danny G..

This article assesses the economic consequences of three alternative government responses to the BSE crisis in Canada: 1) expansion in slaughter capacity; 2) partial destruction of the cattle herd; and 3) deficiency payments. Each of these policies is evaluated under four different border situations: 1) autarky; 2) free trade in young beef only; 3) free trade in young beef and cattle; and 4) complete free trade. The results of the policy analysis are quite sensitive to the border assumptions, making it impossible to select a “best” policy without perfect foresight with respect to the timing and the extent of the border opening.

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: BSE; Cattle and beef; Partial equilibrium model; Simulation; Trade ban; International Relations/Trade; Livestock Production/Industries.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6176

Greenhouse Gas and Nitrogen Fertilizer Scenarios for U.S. Agriculture and Global Biofuels

Elobeid, Amani E.; Carriquiry, Miguel A.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Mulik, Kranti; Hayes, Dermot J.; Babcock, Bruce A.; Dumortier, Jerome; Rosas, Francisco.

This analysis uses the 2011 FAPRI-CARD (Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute–Center for Agricultural and Rural Development) baseline to evaluate the impact of four alternative scenarios on U.S. and world agricultural markets, as well as on world fertilizer use and world agricultural greenhouse gas emissions. A key assumption in the 2011 baseline is that ethanol support policies disappear in 2012. The baseline also assumes that existing biofuel mandates remain in place and are binding. Two of the scenarios are adverse supply shocks, the first being a 10% increase in the price of nitrogen fertilizer in the United States, and the second, a reversion of cropland into forestland. The third scenario examines how lower energy prices would impact world...

Agriculture, Population, Land and Water Scarcity in a Changing World – The Role of Irrigation

Palavras-chave: Afforestation; Energy price; Ethanol tax credit; Fertilizer; Partial equilibrium model; Policy analysis; Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/107043

Sauer, Timm; Havlik, Petr; Schneider, Uwe A.; Kindermann, Georg E.; Obersteiner, Michael.

Fertile land and fresh water constitute two of the most fundamental resources for food production. These resources are affected by environmental, political, economic, and technical developments. Regional impacts may transmit to the world through increased trade. With a global forest and agricultural sector model, we quantify the impacts of increased demand for food due to population growth and economic development on potential land and water use. In particular, we investigate producer adaptation regarding crop and irrigation choice, agricultural market adjustments, and changes in the values of land and water.

Reform der EU-Milchmarktpolitik bei instabilen Weltmärkten

Palavras-chave: Irrigation; Food supply; Integrated assessment; Water use intensity; Agricultural adaptation; Land scarcity; Partial equilibrium model; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44271

World Market Impacts of High Biofuel Use in the European Union

Grams, Michael.

The article examines the market and welfare effects of the current CAP reform and further policy options on the EU dairy market. The main focus is the influence of unstable world markets and the uncertainty it generates in policy analysis which has been widely neglected. The simulations of a stochastic dairy market model reveal that the considered policy options affect the impact of world market instabilities on the EU dairy market. Thus, not only a changing level of producer price or revenues can be expected, but also a changing degree of instability. Policy making without taking such instability changes into account may lead to undesired effects and, finally, could undermine the realisation of policy objectives. Also, the evaluation of the welfare...

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: CAP; Dairy market; Milk quota system; Partial equilibrium model; Uncertainty; Stochastic simulation; Agricultural and Food Policy; Livestock Production/Industries.

Ano: 2005

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97212

Carriquiry, Miguel A.; Dong, Fengxia; Du, Xiaodong; Elobeid, Amani E.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Chavez, Eddie C.; Pan, Suwen.

This study examines the world market impact of an expansion in the biofuel sector in the European Union with particular focus on indirect land-use impacts. In the first scenario, an increase of 1 million tonnes oil equivalent (Mtoe) of wheat ethanol use in the European Union expands world land area used in agricultural commodity production by 366,000 hectares, representing an increase of 0.039% in total area. In the second scenario, an increase of 1 Mtoe of rapeseed oil biodiesel use in the European Union expands world land area by 352,000 hectares, representing an increase of 0.038% in total area. With additional land use somewhat close between the two scenarios, the main difference is the spatial distribution of the sources of additional supply. Because...

EU dairy policy and WTO negotiations

Palavras-chave: Biofuels; Land use; Partial equilibrium model; Rapeseed oil biodiesel scenario; Wheat ethanol scenario.; Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis; Land Economics/Use; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/91923

Bouamra-Mechemache, Zohra; Requillart, Vincent.

The EU dairy sector is facing a period of significant changes that are due to three major decisions: the EU enlargement, the Luxemburg reform and on-going WTO negotiations. In this paper, we focus on the analysis of changes in both domestic and trade dairy policies using a spatial model of the dairy sector that includes EU25 member countries, the modelling of the rest of the world including the main world dairy exporter (Oceania) and 4 importing areas (Africa, America, Asia and the Rest of Europe). The paper provides detailed results with respect to dairy markets in the EU. We show that in the context of the Luxemburg reform, the WTO might have positive impacts on EU milk price. The positive impact on EU milk price of a reduction of the tariffs in the...

Modeling Economywide versus Sectoral Climate Policies Using Combined Aggregate-Sectoral Models

Palavras-chave: WTO; Agricultural policy; Dairy industry; Partial equilibrium model; Agricultural and Food Policy; International Relations/Trade.

Ano: 2006

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10105

Pizer, William A.; Burtraw, Dallas; Harrington, Winston; Newell, Richard G.; Sanchirico, James N..

Economic analyses of climate change policies frequently focus on reductions of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions via market-based, economywide policies. The current course of environment and energy policy debate in the United States, however, suggests an alternative outcome: inefficiently designed and/or sector-based policies. This paper uses a collection of specialized, sector-based models in conjunction with a computable general equilibrium model of the economy to examine and compare these policies at an aggregate level. We examine the relative cost of different policies designed to achieve the same quantity of emissions reductions. We find that excluding a limited number of sectors from an economywide policy does not significantly raise costs....

Bioenergy and Food Security Modeling Income Effects in a Partial Equilibrium Model

Palavras-chave: Carbon; Carbon dioxide; Climate change; Climate policy; General equilibrium model; Partial equilibrium model; Cost; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q25; D58; D61; Q48.

Ano: 2005

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10502

Schneider, Uwe A.; Llull, Christian; Havlik, Petr.

Bioenergy has been politically promoted as a means to mitigate air pollution, climate change, and scarcity of fossil energy sources. This study addresses the question whether increased agricultural incomes from bioenergy production will improve food security despite increasing food prices. We use a small partial equilibrium to analyze bioenergy policies. Through an iterative procedure, income changes are used to shift food demand curves until equilibrium. Our results show that despite global reductions in food production, undernourishment may decrease in certain locations, where bioenergy production occurs.

Linkages between Agriculture, Trade and the Environment in the Context of the European Union Accession

Palavras-chave: Food security; Bioenergy policy; Income changes; Partial equilibrium model; Food Security and Poverty; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44176

Toma, Luiza; Mathijs, Erik; Revoredo-Giha, Cesar.

This paper analyses the impact of trade on environment in Romania using a partial equilibrium model of bilateral trade in beef between Romania and the EU. We use a recursive dynamic model to analyse beef production and trade and adjust it as to include a component to evaluate the impact of liberalised trade due to Romania’s accession to the EU on groundwater and air quality. The environmental module of the model associates the pollution to the use of production inputs. We link the use of itrogen inputs (e.g., nitrogenous fertilisers, manure) to nitrogen loss through leaching/runoff into groundwater (nitrates) and greenhouse gases (emissions of nitrous oxide and methane). We compute the nitrogen loss through leaching/runoff into the groundwater based on the...

CHINESE CONSUMER DEMAND FOR ANIMAL PRODUCTS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR U.S. PORK AND POULTRY EXPORTS

Palavras-chave: Agricultural trade; Externalities; Partial equilibrium model; Romania; Agricultural and Food Policy; Environmental Economics and Policy; International Relations/Trade.

Ano: 2006

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/45991

Wang, Qingbin; Fuller, Frank H.; Hayes, Dermot J.; Halbrendt, Catherine K..

This paper examines Chinese consumer preference for major animal products and assesses the potential impacts of a reduction in China's import tariff on its pork and poultry demand and net import. Our analysis suggests that China's demand for animal products will continue to grow as income increases. Using a trade model, results of our scenario analysis indicate that a reduction in China's import tariffs will significantly increase its net pork and poultry imports and the U.S. will capture most of the increases. Nevertheless, the impact on the market price in China and the U.S. is likely to be very small.

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Almost Ideal Demand System; China; Consumer demand; Demand elasticity; Food demand; Partial equilibrium model; Two-stage budgeting; U.S. meat export; Demand and Price Analysis; International Relations/Trade.

Ano: 1998

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15102

Modelling the impact of the ‘Fast Track’ land reform policy on Zimbabwe’s maize sector

Kapuya, T.; Meyer, Ferdinand H.; Kirsten, Johann F..

This paper attempts to analyze the impacts of the ‘fast track’ land reform policy on maize production in Zimbabwe through the construction of a partial equilibrium model that depicts what could have happened if no further policy shifts had taken place after 2000. The resimulated baseline model was used to make projections based on the various trends of exogenous variables in 2000. This means that the model generated an artificial data set based on what the maize market would have looked like under a set of the pre-2000 existent policy conditions. The ‘fast track’ land reform policy was thus assessed based on the performance of the baseline model using a range of “what if” assumptions. Commercial area harvested was 39 % less than what could have been...

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: ‘fast track’ land reform programme; Partial equilibrium model; Maize; Zimbabwe; Crop Production/Industries; Land Economics/Use.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/95958

Modelling the Hungarian Agriculture: a methodological overview of the FARM-T model

Himics, Mihaly.

This paper provides an opportunity for the reader to get an insight into the current modelling work at the Research Institute for Agricultural Economics, Hungary (AKI). After giving a short summary of the applied econometric models in the past decade, our latest development, the farm group model FARM-T will be introduced. Before introducing FARM-T in details, we devote the second part of the paper to collect all the major challenges we faced during the model development process, when we tried to establish a model structure, with which the possible effects of the introduction of the Single Payment Scheme (SPS) in Hungary can be properly estimated. Therefore, this chapter is meant to explain our motivation for choosing the applied model concept. In the...

MODELLING LONG-TERM COMMODITIES: THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIMULATION MODEL FOR THE SOUTH AFRICAN WINE INDUSTRY WITHIN A PARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM FRAMEWORK

Palavras-chave: FARM-T; Partial equilibrium model; Farm groups; Demand and Price Analysis; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6697

Cutts, Michela; Reynolds, Sanri; Meyer, Ferdinand H.; Vink, Nick.

Econometric demand and supply models of agricultural commodities and crops have been around for a long time with extensive research and adaptations being made in the grain and livestock sectors. This much attention has, however, not been afforded to long term commodities. This paper presents a partial equilibrium framework for modelling long term commodities using the South African wine industry as an example. The model structure and important assumptions are presented, after which the usefulness of the model is tested in the form of baseline projections and the analysis of a typical “what if” question. The wine model presented in this paper is housed and maintained in the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP) at the Department of Agriculture,...

CAP Reform and the Mediterranean EU-Member States

Palavras-chave: Wine market; South Africa; Partial equilibrium model; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis.

Ano: 2007

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37324

Borresch, Rene; Kavallari, Aikaterini; Schmitz, P. Michael.

In the previous years the Mediterranean Member States of the EU came across the Reform of the CAP and especially last year faced the second wave of the Reform for three typical Mediterranean products, namely cotton, olive oil and tobacco. In this paper a partial equilibrium model is used to simulate the impacts of decoupling, as a key point of the decided CAP Reform. The second wave of the Reform appears to be of crucial importance for the southern EU countries and although the producer's income is reduced, there are positive welfare effects.