SABIIA - Sistema Aberto e Integrado de Informação em Agricultura (Sabiia)

Banse, Martin; Salamon, Petra; Ledebur, Oliver von; van Leeuwen, Myrna; Bouma, Foppe; Salputra, Guna; Fellmann, Thomas; Nekhay, Olexandr.

This paper examines the effect of the future developments of Russian and Ukrainian agricultural sectors and their impact on the world market prices for arable crops. Employed in the study is AGMEMOD, a partial equilibrium economic model of EU agriculture at the Member State level that has been extended by Russia and Ukraine to gain quantitative insights. Vital for the project has also been the integration of an endogenous world market price module including a stylized Rest of the World (ROW) model. In Russia and Ukraine, there is a strong focus on plant production in general and on grain based animal production; Russia and Ukraine are mostly net-exports of those products. Under the baseline, in Russia prices for crops and oilseeds are below the world...

Tipo: Presentation

Palavras-chave: Partial equilibrium model; Price formation; Russia; Ukraine; Agricultural and Food Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.

Ano: 2012

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122536

CHINESE CONSUMER DEMAND FOR ANIMAL PRODUCTS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR U.S. PORK AND POULTRY EXPORTS

Wang, Qingbin; Fuller, Frank H.; Hayes, Dermot J.; Halbrendt, Catherine K..

This paper examines Chinese consumer preference for major animal products and assesses the potential impacts of a reduction in China's import tariff on its pork and poultry demand and net import. Our analysis suggests that China's demand for animal products will continue to grow as income increases. Using a trade model, results of our scenario analysis indicate that a reduction in China's import tariffs will significantly increase its net pork and poultry imports and the U.S. will capture most of the increases. Nevertheless, the impact on the market price in China and the U.S. is likely to be very small.

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Almost Ideal Demand System; China; Consumer demand; Demand elasticity; Food demand; Partial equilibrium model; Two-stage budgeting; U.S. meat export; Demand and Price Analysis; International Relations/Trade.

Ano: 1998

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15102

Agricultural policy (AP2011) Reform and the WTO: Potential Impacts on Swiss Agriculture

Ferjani, Ali.

This article analyses the impact of the planned Swiss package of agricultural policy measures AP2011 and the tariff reductions scheduled as part of the WTO Doha Round, with special emphasis on effects in the dairy and meat sector. The simulations are carried out using an extended partial equilibrium model. This article discusses the anticipated impact of changing structural conditions on production, processing, consumption, prices and exports in the milk market. If account is taken of the Bilateral Agreements between Switzerland and the EU providing for liberalisation of the common cheese market, raw milk production increases by 10.5 %, whereas the milk price shows a significant drop to around 60 centimes per kilogram of milk. The abolition of subsidies...

THE IMPACTS OF U.S. COTTON PROGRAMS ON THE WEST AND CENTRAL AFRICAN COUNTRIES COTTON EXPORT EARNINGS

Palavras-chave: Partial equilibrium model; Simulation; AP2011; WTO; Dairy industry; Agricultural and Food Policy; International Relations/Trade; Livestock Production/Industries.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6638

Fadiga, Mohamadou L.; Mohanty, Samarendu; Pan, Suwen.

This study uses a stochastic simulation approach based on a partial equilibrium structural econometric model of the world fiber market to examine the effects of a removal of U.S. cotton programs on the world market. The effects on world cotton prices and African export earnings were analyzed. The results suggest that on average an elimination of U.S. cotton programs would lead to a marginal increase in the world cotton prices thus resulting in minimal gain for cotton exporting countries in Africa.

Analyzing Drivers of World Food Prices: Weather, Growth, and Biofuels

Palavras-chave: Stochastic simulation; Partial equilibrium model; United States; Africa; Cotton subsidies; Export earnings; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Q11; Q17.

Ano: 2004

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20312

Saunders, Caroline M.; Kaye-Blake, William; Cagatay, Selim.

The recent rise of food cost in world markets has accelerated the research examining the underlying factors for this rise. The present research investigated the separate and combined impacts of three factors thought to contribute to the price rise: adverse weather events, strong and sustained growth in high populated countries, and increased biofuels production. The research further analysed the effects of these price rises on consumption expenditures in Brazil, China and India. Analyses were carried out using a partial equilibrium trade model with a focus on the 2004 to 2007 period. The modelling suggests that the most important factor behind the price rise depends on the commodity, with maize/corn, oilseeds, and sugar most affected by biofuels, while...

An Economic Assessment of the BSE Crisis in Canada: Impact of Border Closure and BSE Recovery Programs

Palavras-chave: Food prices; Partial equilibrium model; Biofuel; Agricultural and Food Policy; International Relations/Trade; F11; Q17.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51460

Weerahewa, Jeevika; Meilke, Karl D.; Le Roy, Danny G..

This article assesses the economic consequences of three alternative government responses to the BSE crisis in Canada: 1) expansion in slaughter capacity; 2) partial destruction of the cattle herd; and 3) deficiency payments. Each of these policies is evaluated under four different border situations: 1) autarky; 2) free trade in young beef only; 3) free trade in young beef and cattle; and 4) complete free trade. The results of the policy analysis are quite sensitive to the border assumptions, making it impossible to select a “best” policy without perfect foresight with respect to the timing and the extent of the border opening.

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: BSE; Cattle and beef; Partial equilibrium model; Simulation; Trade ban; International Relations/Trade; Livestock Production/Industries.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6176

How to Derive Market Impacts of the Luxembourg Agreement on the German Beef Market - A Synthetic Uniform Model versus an Econometric Country Specific Model

Salamon, Petra.

The paper discusses two partial equilibrium models, one is a synthetic model (GAPsi) and the other an econometrically estimated model (AG-MEMOD). While the synthetic model incorporates only price impacts and some shifts, the econometric model also reflects other influencing factors. Price formation includes policy measures as price wedges, or as explaining variables in key price equations or price transmission equations, which is also true when premiums and decoupling are regarded. When the Luxembourg Agreement is simulated, our example of beef shows that these model differences induce deviations in model results, especially concerning prices and trade.

A General Conceptual Approach to Modeling the Livestock Sector: Application to the Japanese Swine-Pork Sector Model with Analysis of the "No Gate Price Policy Scenario"

Palavras-chave: Partial equilibrium model; CAP; Luxembourg Agreement; Projections; Econometric estimation; Agricultural and Food Policy; Q11; Q18.

Ano: 2005

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24570

Fabiosa, Jacinto F..

This study develops a generic conceptual approach to modeling the livestock sector that provides better coverage of variables to ensure the consistency in the underlying biologics of the model and also provides consistent rules of specification. This approach is applied to modeling the swine-pork sector of Japan and then used to analyze the impact of removing Japan's gate price policy and variable levy for pork imports. The new approach departs significantly from existing models. For consistency in the biologics of the model both live animals and meat components of the sector are fully covered. The structure clearly differentiates stock and flow variables and investment and production decisions. A standard rule of specification is established that only...

Introducing Different Land Uses (Irrigated and Non-Irrigated) in Policy Analysis Modelling for Mediterranean Countries

Palavras-chave: Livestock sector; Partial equilibrium model; Gate price policy; Livestock Production/Industries.

Ano: 1999

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18655

Casado, Jose Maria; Gracia, Azucena.

The arable crop sector in Spain is highly dependent of the Community subsidies and account for 33% of total transfers received by the Community. Then, it is expected that the introduction of the Single Farm Payment (SFP) will drive important changes in the arable crop production in Spain. The quantitative assessment of the SFP impacts on the arable crop sector in Spain is the overall objective of this paper. To achieve this goal, an econometric, dynamic, multi-product and partial equilibrium commodity model has been built disaggregating between irrigated and non-irrigated land use for cereals called Spanish Econometric Simulation of Agricultural Policies (SESAP). Results indicated that the introduction of the SFP has only induced considerable changes...

INCORPORATING BIOFUELS INTO A PARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL OF THE EU AGRICULTURAL SECTOR

Palavras-chave: CAP reform; Partial equilibrium model; Policy modelling; Irrigated agriculture; Simulation; Land Economics/Use; Q12; Q18.

Ano: 2006

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25709

Binfield, Julian C.R.; Westhoff, Patrick C.; Le Cadre, Elodie.

The impact of increased consumption of biofuels on agricultural markets has already been substantial, and will increase further as countries around the world seek to expand the proportion of their energy that they get from renewable sources. Models of the agricultural sector must therefore include some consideration of the demand for agricultural products for biofuels and the byproducts that are produced as part of the production process that are returned to the agricultural sector. In this paper the method of introducing biofuels into the FAPRI GOLD (grains, oilseeds, livestock and dairy) model is discussed. A scenario is run whereby the EU is assumed to introduce a binding 10% target by 2020 and the results are discussed in order to illustrate the...

The olive oil and cotton lint sectors in the European Union

Palavras-chave: Biofuels; Partial equilibrium model; Agricultural sector; EU policy; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6680

Clapan, Carmen; Periklis, Drakos; Gadanakis, Yiorgos; Baourakis, George.

This paper examines and analyzes the impacts of the reformed CAP as well as the decisions of the new round of negotiations for the olive oil and cotton sectors in the European Union. The aim of this study is to estimate the changes in supply (agricultural supply plus intermediate demand and final production), demand (consumption), price and stock formation (import, export, beginning and ending stocks, national price formation) for both the olive oil and cotton sectors. The model designed for this purpose is partial equilibrium and policy oriented. The objectives of this model are to estimate changes in the production and consumption of the two products concerned, to determine how the reformed Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and the new round of...

Greenhouse Gas and Nitrogen Fertilizer Scenarios for U.S. Agriculture and Global Biofuels

Palavras-chave: Olive oil; Cotton CAP; Trade; Socio economic effects; Partial equilibrium model; Dynamic; Multi market; Synthetic; Policy oriented simulation model; Crop Production/Industries.

Ano: 2006

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10079

Elobeid, Amani E.; Carriquiry, Miguel A.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Mulik, Kranti; Hayes, Dermot J.; Babcock, Bruce A.; Dumortier, Jerome; Rosas, Francisco.

This analysis uses the 2011 FAPRI-CARD (Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute–Center for Agricultural and Rural Development) baseline to evaluate the impact of four alternative scenarios on U.S. and world agricultural markets, as well as on world fertilizer use and world agricultural greenhouse gas emissions. A key assumption in the 2011 baseline is that ethanol support policies disappear in 2012. The baseline also assumes that existing biofuel mandates remain in place and are binding. Two of the scenarios are adverse supply shocks, the first being a 10% increase in the price of nitrogen fertilizer in the United States, and the second, a reversion of cropland into forestland. The third scenario examines how lower energy prices would impact world...

THE EFFECT OF THE NEW SINGLE FARM PAYMENT IN IRRIGATED AGRICULTURE: THE CASE OF SPAIN

Palavras-chave: Afforestation; Energy price; Ethanol tax credit; Fertilizer; Partial equilibrium model; Policy analysis; Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/107043

Gracia, Azucena; de Magistris, Tiziana; Casado, Jose Maria.

The aim of the paper is to provide an econometric, dynamic, multi-product and partial equilibrium model for the Spanish agriculture able to analyse the effects of the SFP and subsequent reforms in both the irrigated and non-irrigated cultivation. In the case of the EU Mediterranean countries, irrigated agriculture is very relevant because farmers in irrigated land get higher productivity and returns. However, irrigation is also the source of a number of environmental concerns, such as over-abstraction of water from subterranean aquifers, irrigation driven erosion, soil salinisation, etc.. The new decoupling direct payments from production will reduce many of the incentives to intensive production. The developed model is called Spanish Econometric...

Linkages between Agriculture, Trade and the Environment in the Context of the European Union Accession

Palavras-chave: CAP reform; Partial equilibrium model; Policy modelling; Irrigated Agriculture; Simulation; Agricultural and Food Policy; Land Economics/Use; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6590

Toma, Luiza; Mathijs, Erik; Revoredo-Giha, Cesar.

This paper analyses the impact of trade on environment in Romania using a partial equilibrium model of bilateral trade in beef between Romania and the EU. We use a recursive dynamic model to analyse beef production and trade and adjust it as to include a component to evaluate the impact of liberalised trade due to Romania’s accession to the EU on groundwater and air quality. The environmental module of the model associates the pollution to the use of production inputs. We link the use of itrogen inputs (e.g., nitrogenous fertilisers, manure) to nitrogen loss through leaching/runoff into groundwater (nitrates) and greenhouse gases (emissions of nitrous oxide and methane). We compute the nitrogen loss through leaching/runoff into the groundwater based on the...

Agriculture, Population, Land and Water Scarcity in a Changing World – The Role of Irrigation

Palavras-chave: Agricultural trade; Externalities; Partial equilibrium model; Romania; Agricultural and Food Policy; Environmental Economics and Policy; International Relations/Trade.

Ano: 2006

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/45991

Sauer, Timm; Havlik, Petr; Schneider, Uwe A.; Kindermann, Georg E.; Obersteiner, Michael.

Fertile land and fresh water constitute two of the most fundamental resources for food production. These resources are affected by environmental, political, economic, and technical developments. Regional impacts may transmit to the world through increased trade. With a global forest and agricultural sector model, we quantify the impacts of increased demand for food due to population growth and economic development on potential land and water use. In particular, we investigate producer adaptation regarding crop and irrigation choice, agricultural market adjustments, and changes in the values of land and water.

World Market Impacts of High Biofuel Use in the European Union

Palavras-chave: Irrigation; Food supply; Integrated assessment; Water use intensity; Agricultural adaptation; Land scarcity; Partial equilibrium model; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44271

Carriquiry, Miguel A.; Dong, Fengxia; Du, Xiaodong; Elobeid, Amani E.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Chavez, Eddie C.; Pan, Suwen.

This study examines the world market impact of an expansion in the biofuel sector in the European Union with particular focus on indirect land-use impacts. In the first scenario, an increase of 1 million tonnes oil equivalent (Mtoe) of wheat ethanol use in the European Union expands world land area used in agricultural commodity production by 366,000 hectares, representing an increase of 0.039% in total area. In the second scenario, an increase of 1 Mtoe of rapeseed oil biodiesel use in the European Union expands world land area by 352,000 hectares, representing an increase of 0.038% in total area. With additional land use somewhat close between the two scenarios, the main difference is the spatial distribution of the sources of additional supply. Because...

Bioenergy and Food Security Modeling Income Effects in a Partial Equilibrium Model

Palavras-chave: Biofuels; Land use; Partial equilibrium model; Rapeseed oil biodiesel scenario; Wheat ethanol scenario.; Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis; Land Economics/Use; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/91923

Schneider, Uwe A.; Llull, Christian; Havlik, Petr.

Bioenergy has been politically promoted as a means to mitigate air pollution, climate change, and scarcity of fossil energy sources. This study addresses the question whether increased agricultural incomes from bioenergy production will improve food security despite increasing food prices. We use a small partial equilibrium to analyze bioenergy policies. Through an iterative procedure, income changes are used to shift food demand curves until equilibrium. Our results show that despite global reductions in food production, undernourishment may decrease in certain locations, where bioenergy production occurs.

CAP Reform and the Mediterranean EU-Member States

Palavras-chave: Food security; Bioenergy policy; Income changes; Partial equilibrium model; Food Security and Poverty; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44176

Borresch, Rene; Kavallari, Aikaterini; Schmitz, P. Michael.

In the previous years the Mediterranean Member States of the EU came across the Reform of the CAP and especially last year faced the second wave of the Reform for three typical Mediterranean products, namely cotton, olive oil and tobacco. In this paper a partial equilibrium model is used to simulate the impacts of decoupling, as a key point of the decided CAP Reform. The second wave of the Reform appears to be of crucial importance for the southern EU countries and although the producer's income is reduced, there are positive welfare effects.

Modelling the impact of the ‘Fast Track’ land reform policy on Zimbabwe’s maize sector

Palavras-chave: Decoupling; Partial equilibrium model; CAP reform; Greece; Italy; Spain; Agricultural and Food Policy; Q18; Q17; D59.

Ano: 2005

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24607

Kapuya, T.; Meyer, Ferdinand H.; Kirsten, Johann F..

This paper attempts to analyze the impacts of the ‘fast track’ land reform policy on maize production in Zimbabwe through the construction of a partial equilibrium model that depicts what could have happened if no further policy shifts had taken place after 2000. The resimulated baseline model was used to make projections based on the various trends of exogenous variables in 2000. This means that the model generated an artificial data set based on what the maize market would have looked like under a set of the pre-2000 existent policy conditions. The ‘fast track’ land reform policy was thus assessed based on the performance of the baseline model using a range of “what if” assumptions. Commercial area harvested was 39 % less than what could have been...

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: ‘fast track’ land reform programme; Partial equilibrium model; Maize; Zimbabwe; Crop Production/Industries; Land Economics/Use.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/95958

The Welfare Effects of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in German Pork Production

Heinrich, Barbara; von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan.

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are an externality of the pork production process. To respond to climate change concerns and reduce GHG emissions, internalizing this external effect using a market-based economic instrument would be economically efficient. We calculate the welfare effects of GHG emissions using a partial equilibrium model of the German pork market. Sensitivity analysis is used to investigate the impacts of emission prices and emission rates on the welfare effects of reducing GHG emissions. Potential overall welfare gains amount to roughly € 360,000 in the base setting and increase to roughly € 3 million when emission prices are tripled. This sensitivity highlights the need for more dependable estimates of key parameters such as emission...