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Embracing Uncertainty: The Interface of Bayesian Statistics and Cognitive Psychology Ecology and Society
Anderson, Judith L; Dept. of Psychology, Simon Fraser University; janderso@sfu.ca.
Ecologists working in conservation and resource management are discovering the importance of using Bayesian analytic methods to deal explicitly with uncertainty in data analyses and decision making. However, Bayesian procedures require, as inputs and outputs, an idea that is problematic for the human brain: the probability of a hypothesis ("single-event probability"). I describe several cognitive concepts closely related to single-event probabilities, and discuss how their interchangeability in the human mind results in "cognitive illusions," apparent deficits in reasoning about uncertainty. Each cognitive illusion implies specific possible pitfalls for the use of single-event probabilities in ecology and resource management. I then discuss recent research...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Cognitive psychology; Judgment under uncertainty; Cognitive illusion; Bayesian statistical analysis; Bayesian decision analysis; Probability; Frequency; Expert elicitation of probabilities..
Ano: 1998
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ESTIMATE OF REFERENCE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION THROUGH CONTINUOUS PROBABILITY MODELLING REA
Uliana,Eduardo M.; Silva,Demetrius D. da; Silva,José G. F. da; Fraga,Micael de S.; Lisboa,Luana.
ABSTRACT This study aimed at testing the fit of continuous probability distributions to a daily reference evapotranspiration dataset (ET0) at a 75% probability level for designing of irrigation systems. Reference evapotranspiration was estimated by the Penman-Monteith method (FAO-56-PM) for eight locations, within the state of Espírito Santo (Brazil), where there are automatic gauge stations. The assessed probability distributions were beta, gamma, generalized extreme value (GEV), generalized logistic (GLO), generalized normal (GN), Gumbel (G), normal (N), Pearson type 3 (P3), Weibull (W), two- and three-parameter lognormal (LN2 and LN3). The fitting of the probability distributions to the ET0 daily dataset was checked by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov's test....
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article Palavras-chave: Evapotranspiration; Probability; Irrigation.
Ano: 2017 URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0100-69162017000200257
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Uma função hiperbólica de distribuição probabilística de alta flexibilidade. Infoteca-e
GUIMARÃES, D. P..
bitstream/CPAC-2009/24828/1/doc_79.pdf
Tipo: Documentos (INFOTECA-E) Palavras-chave: Probabilidade.; Estatística; Matemática; Modelo Matemático.; Mathematical models; Mathematics; Probability; Statistical analysis..
Ano: 2002 URL: http://www.infoteca.cnptia.embrapa.br/infoteca/handle/doc/567774
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Caracterização agroclimática do Estado da Bahia: probabilidades do balanço hídrico mensal. Infoteca-e
REDDY, S. J.; AMORIM NETO, M. da S..
Este estudo apresenta uma caracterização climática do Estado da Bahia, utilizando probabilidades do balanço hídrico mensal. Na estimativa da probabilidade, dados de precipitação mensal de um período de 15 anos ou mais foram utilizados. A análise foi efetuada para 196 locais. Os valroes de evapotranspiração potencial para anos individuais, foram calculados utilizando a metodologia de Reddy * Amorim Neto (1983) e Reddy (1979). A técnica do balanço hídrico mensal de Thornthwaite & Mather (1955 e 1957) com algumas modificações foi utilizada na estimativa da evapotranspiração real, deficit hídrico e escorrimento superficial (runnoff). Com estes parametros, a probabilidade do déficit hídrico relativo a evapotranspiração potencial, e, do runnoff sob...
Tipo: Boletim de Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento (INFOTECA-E) Palavras-chave: Bahia; Probabilidade; Balanço Hídrico; Climatologia; Bioclimatologia; Aclimatação; Climatology; Probability; Water balance.
Ano: 1984 URL: http://www.infoteca.cnptia.embrapa.br/infoteca/handle/doc/132998
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Analyse de l'évolution temporelle de communautés macrobenthiques à partir des probabilités de présence des espèces ArchiMer
Mante, C; Durbec, Jp; Dauvin, Jc.
Statistical analysis of long-term changes in marine communities generally involves recourse to multivariate methods. Some of these, such as Correspondence Analysis (CA), are very sensitive to the presence of rare species in the data, whereas other methods, such as Principal Components analysis (PCA) or Multidimensional Scaling (MDS) are only sensitive to the dominant species. Thus, it is necessary to identify rare species. We used an original method of species determination, based on a multinomial scheme and permitting the generalization of the classical presence/absence coding from a probabilistic viewpoint. This selection method was applied to the identification of the different categories of species (rare, intermediate or dominant) that constitute the...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Statistical analysis; Probability; Long-term changes; Macrobenthic community.
Ano: 1997 URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00093/20428/18095.pdf
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Karpography: a generic concept of quality for chain analysis and knowledge transfer in supply chains AgEcon
McRoberts, Neil.
As with other areas of science, supply chain analysis suffers from the fact that practitioners of its different component disciplines often find it exchange results and methods of analysis. For fresh produce supply chains a key issue is how to unite the elegant mathematical work on the physiology of quality change with the more qualitative methods of social science that are applied to the analysis supply chain management. This paper explores the possibility of utilising approaches which are widely used in demography to unify concepts of quality modelling and supply chain efficiency in the fresh produce sector. A key feature of demographic (or karpographic) models is that they use the average properties of individuals to model the behaviour of cohorts (or...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Quality; Modelling; Matrix model; Variance; Supply chain; Probability; Agribusiness.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/45995
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ELEMENTS OF CATTLE FEEDING PROFITABILITY IN MIDWEST FEEDLOTS AgEcon
Lawrence, John D.; Wang, Zhi; Loy, Daniel D..
Conventional wisdom and earlier research have concluded that cattle feeding profitability is more determined by feeder and fed cattle prices than by animal performance. This study examined cross-sectional and time-series data from over 1600 pens of cattle in more than 220 feedlots in the upper Midwest where weather and lot conditions are thought to influence feedlot profitability. In addition to input and output prices and animal performance, other factors found to significantly impact cattle feeding profitability were sex, placement weight, facility design, and to a lesser extent placement season.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Cattle feedlots; Probability; Risk; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 1999 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15377
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Manure Application Rules and Environmental Considerations AgEcon
Massey, Raymond E.; Gedikoglu, Haluk.
Three manure application limits (N Limit, Annual P Limit and P Banking) were modeled with particular attention to the number of hours needed to appropriately distribute manure. The benefit and costs estimates indicated that P Banking was more profitable than N Limit which was more profitable than Annual P Limit. The number of hours required indicated that the Annual P Limit would not be completed within a two month window approximately 2 of 10 years. The increased number of hours for the Annual P Limit also increased the probability of a runoff event following manure application, relative to the other two scenarios. This work indicates that regulations that require Annual P Limits of manure cost the farmer and may have the unintended consequence of...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Manure; Environment; Policy; Runoff; Hours; Acres; Probability; Rainfall; Environmental Economics and Policy; Farm Management; Livestock Production/Industries; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98765
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MAXIMUM-LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATES OF RACEHORSE EARNINGS AND PROFITABILITY AgEcon
Vinzant, Patrick L.; Neibergs, J. Shannon.
Thoroughbred racehorses are commonly characterized as unprofitable investments. Previous studies, grouping all racehorses together, estimate that over 80% of all racehorses in training fail to earn enough to recover the variable costs of training. However, these studies are not truly representative, because they fail to account for a number of factors affecting profitability. This study estimates expected purse earnings and profitability of claiming horses in Kentucky. Maximum-likelihood estimates of probability distribution parameters show that expected purse earnings follow an exponential distribution with a mean of $25,267. Profitability is best described by a Gamma distribution with a mean of $4,824. Of the 305 claims analyzed for profitability,...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Claiming horses; Financial risk; Maximum likelihood; Probability; Profitability; Thoroughbred; Agribusiness.
Ano: 1999 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14682
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Erosive rainfall in the Rio do Peixe Valley: Part III - Risk of extreme events AGRIAMBI
Back,Álvaro J.; Pola,Augusto C.; Ladwig,Nilzo I.; Schwalm,Hugo.
ABSTRACT Understanding the risks of extreme events related to soil erosion is important for adequate dimensioning of erosion and runoff control structures. The objective of this study was to determine the rainfall erosivity with different return periods for the Valley of the Rio do Peixe in Santa Catarina state, Brazil. Daily pluviographic data series from 1984 to 2014 from the Campos Novos, and Videira meteorological stations and from 1986 to 2014 from the Caçador station were used. The data series of maximum annual rainfall intensity in 30 min, maximum annual erosive rainfall, and total annual erosivity were analyzed for each station. The Gumbel-Chow distributions were adjusted and their adhesions were evaluated by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test at a...
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article Palavras-chave: Soil conservation; Water erosion; Precipitation; Probability.
Ano: 2018 URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1415-43662018000100063
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Mathematical modeling and simulation of hourly precipitation through rectangular pulses - doi: 10.4025/actasciagron.v33i4.7052 Agronomy
Uggioni, Edison; Universidade do Extremo Sul Catarinense; Back, Álvaro José; Empresa de Pesquisa Agropecuária e Extensão Rural de Santa Catarina; Vieira, Hamilton Justino; Empresa de Pesquisa Agropecuária e Extensão Rural de Santa Catarina.
The recorded historical series of precipitation are usually available for short periods of time and with many failures. The use of mathematical modeling to simulate rainfall is a tool used to circumvent this problem and to simulate the operation of water systems in different scenarios. The present study applies mathematical modeling to the hourly pluviometric precipitation data simulation. A pluviographical data set from October 1980 to December 2007 was used in the study. Precipitation data sets were obtained through daily pluviometric digitalization from the Meteorologic Station of Epagri at Urussanga, in southern Santa Catarina, Brazil (latitude 28º 31’ S and longitude 48º 19’ W). To simulate the hourly rain series, the stochastic model was modified...
Tipo: Pesquisa aplicada Palavras-chave: 5.03.02.00-0 Hydrology; Rainfall; Simulation; Probability; Stochastic models engenharia de Água e Solo Hydrology; Rainfall; Simulation; Probability; Stochastic models.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://periodicos.uem.br/ojs/index.php/ActaSciAgron/article/view/7052
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Distribuição das chuvas no município de Tangará da Serra, médio norte do Estado de Mato Grosso, Brasil - doi: 10.4025/actasciagron.v33i2.5838 Agronomy
Dallacort, Rivanildo; UNEMAT; Martins, Juliano Araujo; UNEMAT; Inoue, Miriam Hiroko; UNEMAT; Freitas, Paulo Sérgio Lourenço de; UEM; Coletti, Ademar Junior; UNEMAT.
Pela grande importância em se conhecer a distribuição da precipitação pluviométrica no município de Tangará da Serra, Estado do Mato Grosso (lat. 14°37’55”S, long. 57°28’05”W e altitude de 488 m), por ser uma região de expressão agrícola, esse tipo de informação se torna indispensável para um planejamento adequado, uma maximização do potencial agrícola e uma otimização dos recursos hídricos. Nesse sentido, o objetivo do trabalho foi avaliar a variabilidade anual, mensal e decendial, quantificar o número de dias secos e chuvosos e a precipitação para diferentes níveis de probabilidade. Foram utilizados dados pluviométricos disponibilizados pela Agência Nacional de Águas (ANA), do período de janeiro de 1970 a dezembro de 2007, totalizando um...
Palavras-chave: 5.01.05.00-0 precipitação pluvial; Probabilidade; Recursos hídricos Engenharia de Água e Solo / Agrometeorologia pluviometric precipitation; Probability; Hydric resources.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://periodicos.uem.br/ojs/index.php/ActaSciAgron/article/view/5838
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ANÁLISIS DE LA DINÁMICA CARDIACA DE LA BALLENA JOROBADA (MEGAPTERA NOVAEANGLIAE) CON LA TEORÍA DE LA PROBABILIDAD Boletín de Investigaciones
Rodríguez,Javier; Ortiz,Liliana; Prieto,Signed; Alvarez,Luisa; Correa,Catalina; Reynolds,Jorge.
The cardiac behaviour of the humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae) is described, in order to mathematically characterize its electrocardiogram (ECG) using the Dynamic Components of the System (DCS) and the probability theory. Images of 199 cardiac complexes from the electrocardiography register of a humpback whale were digitalized, determining the frequency apparition of each DCS and calculating the probability of those which frequency was greater or equal than four. Application of the probability theory to the electrocardiography analysis of the whale allows its mathematical, objective and reproducible characterization.
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/report Palavras-chave: Electrocardiogram (ECG); Probability; Dynamic Component of the System (DCS).
Ano: 2009 URL: http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0122-97612009000200011
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