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| Musshoff, Oliver; Hirschauer, Norbert. |
| Agricultural production relies to a great extent on biological processes in natural environments. In addition to volatile prices, it is thus heavily exposed to risks caused by the variability of natural conditions such as rainfall, temperature and pests. With a view to the apparently lacking support of risky farm production program decisions through formal planning models, the objective of this paper is to examine whether, and eventually by how much, farmers’ “intuitive” program decisions can be improved through formal statistical analyses and stochastic optimization models. In this performance comparison, we use the results of the formal planning approach that are generated in a quasi ex-ante analysis as a normative benchmark for the empirically observed... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Stochastic optimization; Stochastic processes; Production risk; Program planning; Time series analysis; C1; C61; M11; Q12. |
| Ano: 2008 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/36865 |
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| Musshoff, Oliver; Hirschauer, Norbert. |
| Agricultural production relies to a great extent on biological processes in natural environments. In addition to volatile prices, it is thus heavily exposed to risks caused by the variability of natural conditions such as rainfall, temperature and pests. With a view to the apparently lacking support of risky farm production program decisions through formal planning models, the objective of this paper is to examine whether, and eventually by how much, farmers’ “intuitive” program decisions can be improved through formal statistical analyses and stochastic optimization models. In this performance comparison, we use the results of the formal planning approach that are generated in a quasi ex-ante analysis as a normative benchmark for the empirically observed... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Stochastic optimization; Program planning; Time series analysis; Crop Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 2008 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44174 |
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