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Targeting the poor and smallholder farmers: empirical evidence from Malawi AgEcon
Houssou, Nazaire; Zeller, Manfred.
This paper develops low cost, reasonably accurate, and simple models for improving the targeting efficiency of development policies in Malawi. Using a stepwise logistic regression (weighted) along with other techniques applied in credit scoring, the research identifies a set of easily observable and verifiable indicators for correctly predicting whether a household is poor or not, based on the 2004-05 Malawi Integrated Household Survey data. The predictive power of the models is assessed using out-of-sample validation tests and receiver operating characteristic curves, whereas the model’s robustness is evaluated by bootstrap simulation methods. Finally, sensitivity analyses are performed using the international and extreme poverty lines. The models...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Malawi; Poverty targeting; Proxy means tests; Out-of-sample tests; Bootstrap; Food Security and Poverty; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; I32; C15.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/57988
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Operational Models for Improving the Targeting Efficiency of Agricultural and Development Policies: A systematic comparison of different estimation methods using out-of-sample tests AgEcon
Houssou, Nazaire; Zeller, Manfred.
Accurate targeting is key for the success of any development policy. While a number of factors might explain low targeting efficiency such as governance failure, political interference or lack of political will, this paper focuses on improving indicator-based models that identify poor households and smallholder farmers more accurately. Using stepwise regressions along with out-of-sample validation tests and receiver operating characteristic curves, this paper develops proxy means tests models for rural and urban Malawi. The models developed have proved their validity in an independent sample and therefore, can be used to target a wide range of development policies to the poor. This makes the models a potentially interesting policy tool for the country.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Malawi; Poverty targeting; Predictions; Proxy means tests; Out-of-sample tests; ROC curve; Bootstrap; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Food Security and Poverty; International Development; Political Economy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; C01; C13; C51; C52; I3; I32; Q14.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51454
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How Best to Target the Poor? An operational targeting of the poor using indicator-based proxy means tests AgEcon
Houssou, Nazaire; Zeller, Manfred; Alcaraz V., Gabriela; Johannsen, Julia; Schwarze, Stefan.
This paper seeks to answer an operational development question: how best to target the poor? In their endeavor, policy makers, program managers, and development practitioners face the daily challenge of targeting policies, projects, and services at the poorer strata of the population. This is also the case for microfinance institutions that seek to estimate the poverty outreach among their clients. This paper addresses these challenges. Using household survey data from Uganda, we estimate four alternative models for improving the identification of the poor in the country. Furthermore, we analyze the model sensitivity to different poverty lines and test their validity using bootstrapped simulation methods. While there is bound to be some errors, no...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Uganda; Poverty assessment; Targeting; Proxy means tests; Validations; Bootstrap; Food Security and Poverty.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/95780
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