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Investment in Electricity Transmission and Ancillary Environmental Benefits AgEcon
Bloyd, Cary; Bharvirkar, Ranjit; Burtraw, Dallas.
Planning of the electricity transmission system generally focuses on the pros and cons of providing generation close to the source of the power demand versus remote generation linked via the transmission system. Recent electricity supply problems in the western United States have renewed interest in the role of transmission in assuring the reliability of electricity supply. Recently, the Western Governors' Association led the development of a planning exercise that examined the tradeoffs over the next 10 years between locating new natural gas powered generation close to the load centers versus new coal, wind, hydro, and geothermal generation in remote areas. Although the analysis concentrated on the direct system costs, the choice of new generation will...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Electricity; Transmission; Air pollution; Ancillary benefits; Nitrogen oxides; Sulfur dioxide; Carbon dioxide; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; L94; Q25; Q41.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10519
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The External Cost of European Crude Oil Imports AgEcon
Bigano, Andrea; Cassinelli, Mariaester; Sferra, Fabio; Guarrera, Lisa; Karbuz, Sohbet; Hafner, Manfred; Markandya, Anil; Navrud, Stale.
This paper is the first to assess operational and probabilistic externalities of oil extraction and transportation to Europe on the basis of a comprehensive evaluation of realistic future oil demand-supply scenarios, of the relative relevance of import routes, of the local specificities in terms of critical passages and different burdens and impacts along import routes. The resulting externalities appear reasonable both under the assumption of high future demand and under low demand. Estimates range from 2.32 Euro in 2030 in the low demand scenario to 2.60 Euro in 2010 in the high demand scenario per ton of imported oil.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Oil Transport; Externalities Oil Spills; Risk Analysis; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q32; Q25; Q41; R40.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/50362
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Demand and price volatility: rational habits in international gasoline demand AgEcon
Scott, K. Rebecca.
Tipo: Working Paper Palavras-chave: Gasoline demand; Rational habits; Price elasticity; Environmental Economics and Policy; Public Economics; H30; Q40; Q41; Q50; R40.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/121931
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Demand and price volatility: rational habits in international gasoline demand AgEcon
Scott, K. Rebecca.
The combination of habits and a forward outlook suggests that consumers will be sensitive not just to prices but to price dynamics. In particular, rational habits models suggest 1. that price volatility and uncertainty will reduce demand for a habit-forming good and 2. that such volatility will dampen demand’s responsiveness to price. These two implications can be tested by augmenting a traditional partial-adjustment or error-correction model of demand. I apply this augmented model to data on gasoline consumption, as rational habits provide a succinct representation for the investment and behavioral decisions that determine gasoline usage. The trade-o¤s among 2SLS, system GMM, and pooled mean group (PMG) estimators are considered, and my preferred PMG...
Tipo: Working Paper Palavras-chave: Gasoline demand; Rational habits; Price elasticity; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; H30; Q40; Q41; Q50; R40.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122891
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Inflationary Effect of Oil-Price Shocks in an Imperfect Market: A Partial Transmission Input-output Analysis AgEcon
Wu, Libo; Li, Jing; Zhang, ZhongXiang.
This paper aims to examine the impacts of oil-price shocks on China’s price levels. To that end, we develop a partial transmission input-output model that captures the uniqueness of the Chinese market. We hypothesize and simulate price control, market factors and technology substitution - the three main factors that restrict the functioning of a price pass-through mechanism during oil-price shocks. Using the models of both China and the U.S., we separate the impact of price control from those of other factors leading to China’s price stickiness under oil-price shocks. The results show a sharp contrast between China and the U.S., with price control in China significantly preventing oil-price shocks from spreading into its domestic inflation, especially in...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Oil-price Shocks; Price Transmission; Price Control; Input-output Analysis; Inflation; Industrial Structure; China; The United States; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q43; Q41; Q48; O13; O53; P22; E31.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/102507
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The Implications of Alternative Biofuel Policies on Carbon Leakage AgEcon
Drabik, Dusan; de Gorter, Harry; Just, David R..
We show carbon leakage depends on the type of biofuel policy (tax credit versus mandate), the domestic and foreign gasoline supply and fuel demand elasticities, and on consumption and production shares of world oil markets for the country introducing the biofuel policy. The components of carbon leakage – market leakage and emissions savings – are counteracting: carbon leakage increases with market leakage but decreases with emissions savings. We also distinguish domestic and international leakage where the latter is always positive, but domestic leakage can be negative with a mandate. The IPCC definition of leakage omits domestic leakage, resulting in biased estimates. Leakage with a tax credit always exceeds that of a mandate, while the combination of a...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Biofuels; Tax credit; Mandate; Market leakage; Carbon leakage; Emissions savings; Domestic leakage; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q27; Q41; Q42; Q54.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114432
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Dynamic Adjustment of U.S. Agriculture to Energy Price Changes AgEcon
Lambert, David K.; Gong, Jian.
Energy prices increased significantly following the first energy price shock of 1973. Agricultural producers found few short run substitution possibilities as relative factor prices changed. Inelastic demands resulted in total expenditures on energy inputs that have closely followed energy price changes over time. A dynamic cost function model is estimated to derive short and long run adjustments within U.S. agriculture between 1948 and 2002 to changes in relative input prices. The objective is to measure the degree of farm responsiveness to energy price changes and if this responsiveness has changed over time. Findings support inelastic demands for all farm inputs. Statistical results support moderate increases in responses to energy and other input price...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Dynamic cost function; Energy prices; U.S. agriculture; Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis; International Development; Production Economics; Productivity Analysis; Q11; Q41.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/90666
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Wind Power: The Economic Impact of Intermittency AgEcon
van Kooten, G. Cornelis.
Wind is the fastest growing renewable energy source for generating electricity, but economic research lags behind. In this study, therefore, we examine the economics of integrating large-scale wind energy into an existing electrical grid. Using a simple grid management model to investigate the impact of various levels of wind penetration on grid management costs, we show that costs of reducing CO2 emissions by relying more on wind power depend on the generation mix of the existing electricity grid and the degree of wind penetration, with costs ranging from $21 to well over $1000 per tonne of CO2 reduced. Costs are lowest if wind displaces large amounts of fossil fuel production and there is some hydroelectric power to act as a buffer. Hydro capacity has...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Wind power; Carbon costs; Electricity grids; Mathematical programming; Environmental Economics and Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q54; Q41; C61.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54370
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Smart Meter Devices and The Effect of Feedback on Residential Electricity Consumption: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Northern Ireland AgEcon
Gans, Will; Alberini, Anna; Longo, Alberto.
Using a unique set of data and exploiting a large-scale natural experiment, we estimate the effect of real-time usage information on residential electricity consumption in Northern Ireland. Starting in April 2002, the utility replaced prepayment meters with “smart” meters that allow the consumer to track usage in real-time. We rely on this event, account for the endogeneity of price and plan with consumption through a plan selection correction term, and find that the provision of information is associated with a decline in electricity consumption of up to 20%. We find that the reduction is robust to different specifications, selection-bias correction methods and subsamples of the original data. At £15-17 per tonne of CO2e (2009£), the smart meter program...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Residential Energy; Electricity Demand; Feedback; Smart Meter; Information; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q40; Q41; D8.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/108202
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The Costs of U.S. Oil Dependency AgEcon
Parry, Ian W.H.; Darmstadter, Joel.
This paper first describes trends and future predictions of factors that determine U.S. dependence on oil and oil imports. We then review evidence on the oil premium, that is, the extent to which the costs to the United States as a whole from extra oil consumption may exceed the private costs to individual oil users. The premium has two main components: one reflects the risk of macroeconomic disruptions from oil price shocks, while the other stems from U.S. market power in the world oil market. Our best assessment of the oil premium is $5/barrel (equivalent to 12 cents per gallon of gasoline), which would warrant a broad, though moderately scaled, tax on all uses of oil.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Energy security; Oil imports; Oil premium; Macroeconomic disruptions; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q43; Q41; Q38.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10644
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The French Biodiesel Production: An Assessment of the Impacts and Interaction Effects of Policy Instruments AgEcon
Doumax, Virginie.
Replaced with revised version of paper 07/18/10.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Biofuels; Blend mandate; Subsidy; Social costs; Agricultural and Food Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; H23; Q41; Q42; Q48.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61698
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CDM Baseline Construction for Vietnam National Electricity Grid AgEcon
Tuyen, Tran Minh; Michaelowa, Axel.
For projects under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), a baseline has to be set to allow calculation of the greenhouse gas emissions reductions achieved. An important obstacle to CDM project development is the lack of data for baseline definition; often project developers do not have access to data and therefore incur high transaction costs to collect them. The government of Vietnam has set up all necessary institutions for CDM, wants to promote CDM projects and thus is interested to reduce transaction costs. We calculate emission factors of the Vietnam electricity grid according to the rules defined by the CDM Executive Board for small scale projects and for large renewable electricity generation projects. The emission factors lie between 365 and 899 g...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: CDM; Baseline; Electricity generation; Vietnam; Public Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; D62; F18; Q25; Q41.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/26393
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Willingness to Pay for Emission Reductions with E85 AgEcon
Jensen, Kimberly L.; Marra, Adrienne; Clark, Christopher D.; English, Burton C..
This study examines consumers' WTP for reductions in greenhouse gas emissions from E85 as opposed to gasoline. Data were collected via a contingent choice exercise in a 2009 national online survey. As part of the fuel choice exercise, several fuel attributes were allowed to vary including emission reductions, import level, proximity of fuel availability, price, and fuel blend (E85 or regular gasoline). A random parameters model with demographics and attitudes interacted with emission reductions was estimated. The resulting estimates suggest that, overall the WTP for an emission reduction is not statistically significant. However, for some demographic and attitudinal profiles, the WTP is significant. An example profile includes younger age, female,...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Willingness to Pay; Emission Reductions; E85; Consumer/Household Economics; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q41; Q51.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/60916
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An Evaluation of Overseas Oil Investment Projects under Uncertainty Using a Real Options Based Simulation Model AgEcon
Zhu, Lei; Zhang, ZhongXiang; Fan, Ying.
This paper applies real options theory to establish an overseas oil investment evaluation model that is based on Monte Carlo simulation and is solved by the Least Squares Monte-Carlo method. To better reflect the reality of overseas oil investment, our model has incorporated not only the uncertainties of oil price and investment cost but also the uncertainties of exchange rate and investment environment. These unique features have enabled our model to be best equipped to evaluate the value of oil overseas investment projects of three oil field sizes (large, medium, small) and under different resource tax systems (royalty tax and production sharing contracts). In our empirical setting, we have selected China as an investor country and Indonesia as an...
Tipo: Working Paper Palavras-chave: Overseas Oil Investment; Project Value; Real Options; Least Squares Monte-Carlo; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q41; Q43; Q48; G31; O13; O22; C63.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/119106
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Discussion: Revisiting Macroeconomic Linkages to Agriculture: The Impact of Macroeconomic Variables and the Oil Sector on Farm Prices and Income AgEcon
Penson, John B., Jr..
Periodically, events occur in the domestic and global economies that remind agricultural economists that macroeconomics matter. This was evident in the early 1980s when the Federal Reserve responded to double-digit inflation by driving interest rates to post–World War II period highs. The Asian financial crisis in the late 1990s, rising oil prices this past decade, and current stress in domestic and overseas financial markets serve to remind us again that externalities can have an effect on the economic performance and financial strength of U.S. agriculture. These effects are transmitted through interest rates, inflation, unemployment, real gross domestic product, and exchange rates.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Macroeconomics; Linkages; Net farm income; Exchange rates; Interest rates; Real GDP; Agribusiness; Farm Management; Financial Economics; Political Economy; Public Economics; E31; E44; Q41; Q43.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/92583
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The Impact of Public and Private R&D n Farmers' Production Decisions: 1960-2004 AgEcon
Schuring, Jessica; Huffman, Wallace E.; Fan, Xing.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Aggregate production; Midwestern agriculture; Elasticities of supply and demand; Public agricultural research; GM- crop varieties; Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis; Production Economics; Productivity Analysis; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Q11; Q16; Q41.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103493
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Energy Access Scenarios to 2030 for the Power Sector in Sub-Saharan Africa AgEcon
Bazilian, Morgan; Nussbaumer, Patrick; Rogner, Hans-Holger; Brew-Hammond, Abeeku; Foster, Vivien; Kammen, Daniel M.; Pachauri, Shonali; Eric, Williams; Howells, Mark; Niyongabo, Philippe; Musaba, Lawrence; O Gallachoir, Brian; Radka, Mark.
In order to reach a goal of universal access to modern energy services in Africa by 2030, consideration of various electricity sector pathways is required to help inform policy-makers and investors, and help guide power system design. To that end, and building on existing tools and analysis, we present several ‘high-level’, transparent, and economy-wide scenarios for the sub-Saharan African power sector to 2030. We construct these simple scenarios against the backdrop of historical trends and various interpretations of universal access. They are designed to provide the international community with an indication of the overall scale of the effort required. We find that most existing projections, using typical long-term forecasting methods for power...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Energy Access; Power System Planning; Sub-Saharan Africa; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; C1; Q41; Q47.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/116904
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A Trend Deduction Model of Fluctuating Oil Prices AgEcon
Xu, Haiyan; Zhang, ZhongXiang.
Crude oil prices have been fluctuating over time and by a large range. It is the disorganization of oil price series that makes it difficult to deduce the changing trends of oil prices in the middle- and long-terms and predict their price levels in the short-term. Following a price-state classification and state transition analysis of changing oil prices from January 2004 to April 2010, this paper first verifies that the observed crude oil price series during the soaring period follow a Markov Chain. Next, the paper deduces the changing trends of oil prices by the limit probability of a Markov Chain. We then undertake a probability distribution analysis and find that the oil price series have a log-normality distribution. On this basis, we integrate the...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Oil Price; Log-normality Distribution; Limit Probability of a Markov Chain; Trend Deduction Model; OPEC; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q41; Q47; C12; C49; F01; O13.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/101300
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Incentives Matter: Assessing Biofuel Policies in the South AgEcon
Miller, J. Corey; Coble, Keith H..
As a result of the increase in the real cost of fossil fuel-based energy in recent years, federal and state governments have taken a more active role in energy policy by creating incentives to develop alternative sources of energy, including biofuels. However, policymakers often become focused on the specific type of energy and not the energy services consumers ultimately value. The lack of recognition of energy as a commodity results in policies that ignore the characteristics of the associated markets: easy entry and exit, no barriers to entry, and sensitivity to changes in supply and demand. Consequently, energy industries may fail to arise because entrepreneurs must be able to account for all costs and earn—at a minimum—a competitive return on the...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Alternative energy; Biofuels; Energy policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q41; Q42; Q48.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/113534
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Industrial Coal Demand in China: A Provincial Analysis AgEcon
Cattaneo, Cristina; Manera, Matteo; Scarpa, Elisa.
In recent years, concerns regarding the environmental implications of the rising coal demand have induced considerable efforts to generate long-term forecasts of China’s energy requirements. Nevertheless, none of the previous empirical studies on energy demand for China has tackled the issue of modelling coal demand in China at provincial level. The aim of this paper is to fill this gap. In particular, we model and forecast the Chinese demand for coal using time series data disaggregated by provinces. Moreover, not only does our analysis account for heterogeneity among provinces, but also, given the nature of the data, it captures the presence of spatial autocorrelation among provinces using a spatial econometric model. A fixed effects spatial lag model...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Energy demand; Coal demand; China; Spatial econometrics; Panel data; Forecasting; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; C23; E6; Q31; Q41.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44425
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