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Optimal Timing of Cartel Formation Under Uncertainty AgEcon
Cai, Xiaowei; Stiegert, Kyle W..
Understanding how business cartels form and expand is foundational for developing sound deterrence strategies. Past work (i.e. Connor, 2005) has relied on net present value (NPV) methods to evaluate the streams of costs and benefits of forming or joining a cartel. While NPV adequately measure the expected value of future streams of benefits and costs, higher moments of the distribution are also important in understanding agent behavior. Thus, in the presence of uncertainty about future streams and litigation costs, NPV may miss important dimensions that shape the issue. The decision to form or join a cartel is, at least, partially irreversible, because it exposes the firm or its involved managers to litigation on all previous returns and even after the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Cartel Joining Behavior; Real Options Theory; International Cartels; Industrial Organization; K21; L00; L12.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61301
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A Real Options Framework for Analyzing Program Participation as Human Capital Investments: The Case of the Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE) Program AgEcon
Mitchell, Paul D.; Rejesus, Roderick M.; Coble, Keith H.; Knight, Thomas O..
We develop a real options framework to model producer participation in a subsidy program as a human capital investment to learn how the stochastic subsidy affects returns and how to adapt production activities to new program incentives, formally linking the framework to a multinomial logit specification for empirical applications. Analysis of farmer intentions for participation in the ACRE program created by the 2008 Farm Bill finds that reluctance to participate was driven largely by risk aversion and perceptions about income risk from yield and price variability, consistent with the theory that uncertainty creates an option value discouraging human capital investments.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Agricultural Policy; Commodity Programs; Farm Bill; Multinomial Logit; Real Options Theory; Subsidy; Agricultural and Food Policy; Q12; Q18.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/92896
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