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Acreage Decisions When Risk Preferences Vary AgEcon
Arnade, Carlos Anthony; Cooper, Joseph C..
This presentation summarizes an AAEA poster.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Risk preferences; Acreage decision; Soybeans; Corn; Wheat; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61005
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Joint Estimation of Risk Preferences and Technology: Flexible Utility of Futility? AgEcon
Lence, Sergio H..
The present study sets up a thought experiment calibrated to represent risks of a high-risk production activity (farming), and investigating whether the structure of risk aversion (i.e., the changes in absolute or relative risk aversion associated with changes in wealth) can be estimated with reasonable precision. Findings strongly suggest that typical production data are unlikely to allow identification of the structure of risk aversion. A flexible utility parameterization is found to worsen technology parameter estimates. Findings also indicate that even under a restricted utility specification, the quality of utility parameters estimated from small samples is very poor.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Expected utility; Risk preferences; Production analysis; Risk attitudes.; Risk and Uncertainty; C13; D24; D81; Q12..
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9980
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Participation in Off-Farm Employment, Risk Preferences, and Weather Variability: The Case of Ethiopia AgEcon
Bezabih, Mintewab; Gebreegziabher, Zenebe; GebreMedhin, Liyousew; Kohlin, Gunnar.
This article assesses the relative importance of risk preferences and rainfall availability on households’ decision to engage in off-farm employment. Devoting time for off-farm activities, while it helps households earn additional incomes, involves a number of uncertainties. Unique panel data from Ethiopia which includes experimentally generated risk preference measures combined with longitudinal rainfall data is used in the analysis. An off farm participation decision and activity choice showed that both variability and reduced availability of rainfall as well as neutral risk preferences increase the likelihood of off-farm participation. From policy perspective, the results imply that expanding off farm opportunities could act as safety nets in the face...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Off-farm employment; Labor supply; Rainfall variability/reduced availability; Risk preferences; GLLAMM; Ethiopia; Labor and Human Capital; Q13; D81; C35; C93.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/95784
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Expected Utility or Prospect Theory Maximizers? Results from a Structural Model based on Field-experiment Data AgEcon
Bocqueho, Geraldine; Jacquet, Florence; Reynaud, Arnaud.
We elicit risk preferences of French farmers in a field experimental setting under expected utility theory and cumulative prospect theory. We use two different estimation methods, namely the interval approach and the estimation of a random preference model. On average, farmers are risk averse and loss averse. They also exhibit an inverse S-shaped probability weighting function, meaning that they tend to overweight small probabilities and underweight high probabilities. We infer from our results that CPT explains farmers’ behaviour better than EUT in the context of our experiment. We also investigate how preferences correlate with individual socio-demographic characteristics. We find that education and agricultural innovation are negatively linked with risk...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Risk preferences; Field experiment; Experimental economics; Prospect theory; Risk and Uncertainty; C91; D81; J16; Q12.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114257
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Hazardous Agrochemicals, Smoking, and Farmers’ Differences in Wage-Risk Tradeoffs AgEcon
Nastis, Stefanos A.; Michailidis, Anastasios.
This paper utilizes the theory of compensating differentials for job risks from the labor economics literature to evaluate farmers’ differences in wage-risk tradeoffs. In the context of job risks, the theory predicts that farmers who place a lower value on health status are willing to work for lower compensation on a risky job. The aim of the paper is to evaluate how the observed wage-risk tradeoff is affected by individual heterogeneity in risk preferences, by acknowledging variations in farmers’ revealed attitudes toward risk, both in job-related and non-job activities. The job risk measure employed is self-reported job risk of low back pain, the most recurring health risk faced by farmers. The job-related risky activity is the application of hazardous...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agrochemicals; Smoking; Farming job risk; Compensating differentials; Risk preferences; Health impairment; Agribusiness; Farm Management; Health Economics and Policy; Labor and Human Capital.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/109389
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How Much Can We Learn About Producers' Utility Functions from Their Production Data? AgEcon
Lence, Sergio H..
A thought experiment is designed to investigate whether the structure of risk aversion (i.e., the changes in absolute or relative risk aversion associated with changes in wealth) can be estimated with reasonable precision from agricultural production data. Findings strongly suggest that typical production data are unlikely to allow identification of the structure of risk aversion. A flexible utility parameterization is found to slightly worsen technology parameter estimates. Results also indicate that even under a restricted utility specification, utility parameter estimates are biased. Further, their quality is much worse when shocks are not large or samples are small.
Tipo: Presentation Palavras-chave: Expected utility; Risk preferences; Production analysis; Risk attitudes; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; C13; D24; D81; Q12.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/119534
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The Impact of Price-Induced Hedging Behavior on Commodity Market Volatility AgEcon
Kauffman, Nathan S.; Hayes, Dermot J..
The utility maximization problem of a grain producer is formulated and solved numerically under prospect theory as an alternative to expected utility theory. Conventional theory posits that the optimal hedging position of a producer is not affected solely due to changes in the level of futures prices. However, a strong degree of positive correlation is apparent in the data. Our results show that with prospect theory serving as the underlying behavioral framework, the optimal hedge of a producer is affected by changes in futures price levels. The implications of this price-induced hedging behavior on spot prices and volatility are subsequently considered.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Futures markets; Hedging; Prospect theory; Risk preferences; Agribusiness; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; D03; D81; G11; Q13.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103242
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Some Simulation Results for a Green Insurance Mechanism AgEcon
Baerenklau, Kenneth A..
This analysis extends previous work on green insurance by proposing a mechanism that offers a stronger adoption incentive and is applicable to heterogeneous populations and non-binary adoption decisions. Endogenous learning about the new technology is incorporated, and empirically calibrated simulation results are presented for the case of reduced-phosphorus dairy diets. Results show that the mechanism has a significant impact on behavior and may incur no net cost for the regulator when an insurance premium is charged. Conditions under which a green payment mechanism may be preferable to green insurance also are discussed.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Conservation technology adoption; Dairy farming; Endogenous learning; Green insurance; Phosphorus; Risk preferences; Voluntary programs; Environmental Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30787
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Effects of Decoupling on the Average and the Variability of Output AgEcon
Serra, Teresa; Zilberman, David; Goodwin, Barry K.; Featherstone, Allen M..
Previous research has ignored the influence of inputs on output risk when assessing the effects of decoupled income-support payments on production decisions. This paper studies the impacts of agricultural policy decoupling on output variability and mean by explicitly considering the influence of agricultural input use on the stochastic component of production. We develop a theoretical framework that studies production responses of agricultural producers to apparently decoupled payments. Results show that, under DARA preferences, government transfers will have the effect of increasing production risk. Inferences on the effects of payments on output mean are also made. In our empirical application we use farm-level data collected in Kansas to illustrate the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Decoupling; Output risk; Risk preferences; Just-Pope production function; Demand and Price Analysis; Q12; Q18.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24601
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An Investigation of Production Risk, Risk Preferences and Technical Efficiency: Evidence From Rainfed Lowland Rice Farms in the Philippines AgEcon
Villano, Renato A.; O'Donnell, Christopher J.; Battese, George E..
Risk plays a vital role in farmers' decisions on input allocations and, therefore, output supply. This paper provides empirical evidence on the estimation of production risk, risk preferences and technical inefficiency. An eight-year panel data set is used for 46 rice farmers from a representative rainfed lowland environment in Central Luzon, Philippines. The heteroskedastic and stochastic frontier frameworks are reconciled and extended to accommodate the risk preferences of farmers in an analysis of production risk. Results show that technical inefficiency is overstated in risky production environments where farmers are risk-averse.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Production risk; Risk preferences; Technical efficiency; Productivity Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12953
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STOCHASTIC TECHNOLOGY, RISK PREFERENCES AND ADOPTION OF SITE-SPECIFIC TECHNOLOGIES AgEcon
Isik, Murat; Khanna, Madhu.
This paper develops a model of farmer decision-making to examine the extent to which uncertainties about the performance of site-specific technologies (SSTs) and about the weather impact the value of these technologies. The model uses the jointly estimated risk and technology parameters to examine the impacts of SSTs on returns and nitrogen pollution. The availability of uncertain soil information and production uncertainty can lead risk-averse farmers to apply more fertilizers and generate more pollution. Ignoring the impact of uncertainty and risk preferences of farmers leads to a significant overestimation of the economic and environmental benefits of SSTs and underestimation of the required subsidy for inducing adoption of SSTs. The model that accounts...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Spatial variability; Risk preferences; Joint estimation; Uncertainty; Technology adoption; Nitrogen runoff; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19858
Registros recuperados: 11
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