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| Registros recuperados: 20 | |
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| Brand, Fridolin Simon; Natural and Social Science Interface, Institute for Environmental Decisions, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH) Zurich; fridolin.brand@env.ethz.ch; Seidl, Roman; Natural and Social Science Interface; Institute for Environmental Decisions; Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH) Zurich; roman.seidl@env.ethz.ch; Le, Quang Bao; Natural and Social Science Interface; Institute for Environmental Decisions; Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH) Zurich; quang.le@env.ethz.ch; Scholz, Roland Werner; Natural and Social Science Interface; Institute for Environmental Decisions; Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH) Zurich; roland.scholz@env.ethz.ch. |
| Alpine regions in Europe, in particular, face demanding local challenges, e.g., the decline in the agriculture and timber industries, and are also prone to global changes, such as in climate, with potentially severe impacts on tourism. We focus on the Visp region in the Upper Valais, Switzerland, and ask how the process of stakeholder involvement in research practice can contribute to a better understanding of the specific challenges and future development of mountainous regions under global change. Based on a coupled human-environment system (HES) perspective, we carried out a formative scenario analysis to develop a set of scenarios for the future directions of the Visp region. In addition, we linked these regional scenarios to context scenarios... |
| Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports |
Palavras-chave: Global change; Human-environment systems; Mountain regions; Scenario analysis; Sustainability science; Switzerland; Transdisciplinarity. |
| Ano: 2013 |
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| Biggs, Reinette; University of Wisconsin; biggs@wisc.edu; Raudsepp-Hearne, Ciara; McGill University; ciara.rh@gmail.com; Atkinson-Palombo, Carol; Arizona State University; cmatkin@mainex1.asu.edu; Bohensky, Erin; University of Pretoria; CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems; erin.bohensky@csiro.au; Boyd, Emily; Stockholm University; boyd@ctm.su.se; Cundill, Georgina; Rhodes University; g.cundill@ru.ac.za; Fox, Helen; World Wildlife Fund; helen.fox@wwfus.org; Ingram, Scott; Arizona State University; singram@asu.edu; Kok, Kasper; Wageningen University; kasper.kok@wur.nl; Spehar, Stephanie; New York University; stephanie.spehar@gmail.com; Timmer, Dagmar; Resourceful Solutions Consulting; timmer.dagmar@gmail.com; Zurek, Monika; FAO; monika.zurek@fao.org. |
| Scenario analysis is a useful tool for exploring key uncertainties that may shape the future of social-ecological systems. This paper explores the methods, costs, and benefits of developing and linking scenarios of social-ecological systems across multiple spatial scales. Drawing largely on experiences in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, we suggest that the desired degree of cross-scale linkage depends on the primary aim of the scenario exercise. Loosely linked multiscale scenarios appear more appropriate when the primary aim is to engage in exploratory dialog with stakeholders. Tightly coupled cross-scale scenarios seem to work best when the main objective is to further our understanding of cross-scale interactions or to assess trade-offs between... |
| Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Insight |
Palavras-chave: Multiscale scenarios; Cross-scale scenarios; Stakeholder engagement; Millennium Ecosystem Assessment; Environmental assessment; Scenario analysis. |
| Ano: 2007 |
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| Levin, Phillip S; NOAA Fisheries, Northwest Fisheries Science Center; phil.levin@noaa.gov; Williams, Gregory D; Pacific States Marine Fisheries Commission; Northwest Fisheries Science Center, NMFS, NOAA; greg.williams@noaa.gov; Rehr, Amanda; NOAA Fisheries, Northwest Fisheries Science Center; pearlgrl@gmail.com; Norman, Karma C; NOAA Fisheries, Northwest Fisheries Science Center; karma.norman@noaa.gov; Harvey, Chris J; National Marine Fisheries Service; Chris.Harvey@noaa.gov. |
| The development of targets is foundational in conservation. Although progress has been made in setting targets, the diverse linkages among ecological and social components make target setting for coupled social-ecological systems extremely challenging. Developing integrated social-ecological targets is difficult because it forces policy makers to consider how management actions propagate throughout social-ecological systems, and because ultimately it is society, not scientists, that defines targets. We developed an interdisciplinary approach for identifying management targets and illustrate this approach using an example motivated by Puget Sound, USA. Our approach blends ecological modeling with empirical social science to articulate trade-offs and reveal... |
| Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Insight |
Palavras-chave: Conservation target; Ecosystem assessment; Scenario analysis; Social norm analysis. |
| Ano: 2015 |
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| Tian, Guangjin; State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University; tianguangjin@bnu.edu.cn; Qiao, Zhi; State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University; 386656602@qq.com. |
| Policy makers and the human decision processes of urban planning have an impact on urban expansion. The behaviors and decision modes of regional authority, real estate developer, resident, and farmer agents and their interactions can be simulated by the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) method. The driving factors are regressed with urban dynamics instead of static land-use types. Agents’ behaviors and decision modes have an impact on the urban dynamic pattern by adjusting parameter weights. We integrate an agent-based model) (ABM) with AHP to investigate a complex decision-making process and future urban dynamic processes. Three policy scenarios for baseline development, rapid development, and green land protection have been applied to predict... |
| Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports |
Palavras-chave: Agent-based model; Analytical hierarchy process; Guangzhou; Policy makers; Scenario analysis. |
| Ano: 2014 |
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| Chary, Killian; Callier, Myriam; Coves, Denis; Aubin, Joel; Simon, Julien; Fiandrino, Annie. |
| Spatial planning, including zoning and site-selection steps, is necessary to determine locations that minimize environmental impacts of aquaculture and respect ecosystem carrying capacities. This study aimed to analyse potential benthic waste deposition in a broad range of fish farming situations to facilitate zoning. To this end, we simulated waste dispersion for 54 aquaculture scenarios combining three red drum (Sciaenops ocellatus) farm types (Small, Medium, and Large) based on real farm characteristics and 36 sites with contrasting hydrodynamics in Mayotte’s North-East Lagoon. Key forcing variables and parameters of the particle-dispersion model for farms (layout and solid waste fluxes), species (feed- and faeces-settling velocities) and sites (depth... |
| Tipo: Text |
Palavras-chave: Aquaculture zones; Carrying-capacity; Environmental impact; Hydrodynamics; NewDEPOMOD; Particle dispersion; Red drum; Scenario analysis. |
| Ano: 2021 |
URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00666/77810/79985.pdf |
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| Roucan-Kane, Maud; Boehlje, Michael; Gray, Allan W.; Akridge, Jay T.. |
| The objective of this paper is to present the teaching note of a case study. The case study outlines the strategic issues facing Excel Cooperative as a result of the rapid expansion of biofuel production capacity in the Midwestern U.S. Excel Cooperative is a mid-sized, ‘local’, farmer-owned cooperative serving farmers in north central Indiana. Excel is composed of four divisions: agronomy, energy, grain, and feed/livestock. With the Excel case, the reader must think strategically about the broad impacts of the biofuel “boom”, apply strategic management tools and decision-making under uncertainty concepts to better understand the impacts, and frame a response. The methodology proposed in the teaching note is composed of a SWOT analysis, scorecarding and... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Uncertainty; Risk; Heat mapping; Scorecarding; Scenario analysis; Payoff matrix; Decision tree; Real option; Traps; Agribusiness; D81. |
| Ano: 2009 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53584 |
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| Sun, Yun-peng. |
| Based on the climatic data and other statistics of climatic data of 54 meteorological stations from 1956 to 2005 in Liangning Province, the annual and seasonal light, heat and water and the like major elements of climatic resources are diagnosed and analyzed by using the method of linear climate trend rate. The results show that warming trend is 0.25℃/10a , the precipitation decrease gradually by 2.2mm/a and the decreasing trend of solar radiation and hours of sunshine is not dramatic. The overall climate change trend is warming and drying trend, featuring “significantly increased temperature, the decreased precipitation and sunshine”. These features are significant in autumn, thus leading to the trend of moving west and retreating east of the... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Global climate change; Land use; Scenario analysis; Ecological security assessment; China; Agribusiness. |
| Ano: 2010 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/93668 |
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| Roucan-Kane, Maud; Boehlje, Michael; Gray, Allan W.; Akridge, Jay T.. |
| The dramatic changes occurring throughout the agriculture industry are creating an increasingly turbulent business climate for the sector. The objective of this paper is to present a methodology to understand, assess, evaluate, and manage uncertainty. Five methods are discussed: scenario analysis, scorecarding and heat mapping, payoff matrix, decision tree, and options portfolio mapping. Scenario analysis can help identify the alternative futures that may unfold. Scorecarding and heat mapping assessment tools can be used to assess and map the uncertainties, and decide which uncertainties the company should capitalize on and which projects could be pursued to exploit those uncertainties. Payoff matrices and decision trees (using real option valuation)... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Uncertainty; Risk; Heat mapping; Scorecarding; Scenario analysis; Payoff matrix; Decision tree; Real option; Traps; Agribusiness; D81. |
| Ano: 2009 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/55465 |
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| Roucan-Kane, Maud; Boehlje, Michael; Gray, Allan W.; Akridge, Jay T.. |
| The business climate for the agricultural sector is characterized by increased uncertainty and “unanticipated surprises,” such as new government regulations, new technology and product introductions, mergers and acquisitions, nonperformance by supply chain partners, and changes in interest and exchange rates. This manuscript uses a real case problem to describe a set of tools(such as scenario analysis, risk scorecarding and heat mapping, payoff matrices, decision trees, and options portfolio mapping) available to use for making strategic decisions in such a business climate. |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Scorecarding and heat mapping; Decision trees; Scenario analysis; Payoff matrices; Real options; Agribusiness; Q13. |
| Ano: 2010 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98052 |
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| Mesa-Jurado, Maria A.; Berbel, Julio; Piston, Juan Maximo. |
| This paper reviews the application of a scenario for the 2015 agricultural policy and markets for the irrigated agriculture in Europe. Scenarios for irrigated agriculture 2015 are described in detail including Reformed CAP and how biofuel impacts demand. A model for irrigation water demand is applied at the basin level for the Guadalquivir River (Southern Spain). The methodology is based upon residual value of water and it combines budget and farm analysis at municipality level, with the Guadalquivir basin divided at 50 counties where 24 possible crops are selected and adapted specifically to each county yield and costs. The result is a comparative analysis between actual level of water use and value, and 2015 scenario at county level and later aggregated... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Irrigated agriculture; Value of water; Scenario analysis; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy. |
| Ano: 2008 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43857 |
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| Bacic,Ivan Luiz Zilli; Rossiter,David G.; Mannaerts,Christiaan Mathias. |
| Intensification of agricultural production without a sound management and regulations can lead to severe environmental problems, as in Western Santa Catarina State, Brazil, where intensive swine production has caused large accumulations of manure and consequently water pollution. Natural resource scientists are asked by decision-makers for advice on management and regulatory decisions. Distributed environmental models are useful tools, since they can be used to explore consequences of various management practices. However, in many areas of the world, quantitative data for model calibration and validation are lacking. The data-intensive distributed environmental model AgNPS was applied in a data-poor environment, the upper catchment (2,520 ha) of the... |
| Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
Palavras-chave: Soil and water pollution; AgNPS; Pig manure; Simulation modeling; Model calibration; Scenario analysis; Local expert knowledge. |
| Ano: 2008 |
URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0100-06832008000400035 |
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| Registros recuperados: 20 | |
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