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| Lambert, David K.; McCarl, Bruce A.; He, Quifen; Kaylen, Michael S.; Rosenthal, Wesley; Chang, Ching-Cheng; Nayda, W.I.. |
| Agriculture operates in an uncertain environment. Yields, prices, and resource usage can change dramatically from year to year. However, most analyses of the agricultural sector, at least those using mathematical programming methods, assume decision making is based on average yields, ignoring yield variability. This study examines how explicit consideration of stochastic yield outcomes influence a sector analysis. We develop a model that can be used for stochastic sector analysis. We extend the risk framework developed by Hazell and others to incorporate discrete yield outcomes as well as consumption activities dependent upon yield outcomes. An empirical application addresses a comparison between sector analysis with and without considerations of the... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Agricultural sector analysis; Global warming; Partial equilibrium models; Stochastic programming; Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 1995 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15257 |
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| Flaten, Ola; Lien, Gudbrand D.. |
| The EU regulation governing organic production will require 100% organic feed in organic dairy systems from August 2005 compared with 85% currently in Norway. This study aimed to assess adjustments in resource use and financial impacts on organic dairy herds using a discrete stochastic programming model. Farm management effects of the regulatory change varied between farm types. For the two organic dairy systems examined, both having a milk quota of 100 000 litres but with varying farmland availability, the introduction of the 100% organic feed regulation resulted in an economic loss of approximately 6-8% of the net income compared to the current regime. The economic loss was mainly due to the considerable higher price of organic compared to conventional... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Feed regulation; Organic farming; Milk production; Stochastic programming; Livestock Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24245 |
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| Berg, Ernst. |
| This paper investigates the farm level impacts of multiple peril yield and revenue insurance in an expected value-variance framework. The analysis is conducted using stochastic simulation jointly with numerical optimisation. Simulation is used to compute the means and variances of revenues as affected by the insurance schemes under consideration. In a second step these results are incorporated in a whole-farm programming approach, which optimises a portfolio that consists of crop production and insurance activities. The results of a case study indicate that from the farmer's point of view there is an incentive to buy multiple peril crop insurance, because it significantly reduces the variability of income. The risk reduction through insurance in turn leads... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Crop insurance; Risk management; Portfolio selection; Stochastic programming; Expected value-variance analysis; Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2002 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24834 |
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