|
|
|
| Registros recuperados: 92 | |
|
|
| Hatchett, Robert B.; Brorsen, B. Wade; Anderson, Kim B.. |
| The question addressed in this study is which length of historical moving average provides the best forecast of futures basis. Differences in observed forecast accuracy among the different moving averages are usually less than a cent per bushel, and most are not statistically significant. Further, the search for an optimal length of moving average may be futile since the optimal length depends on how much structural change has occurred. Our recommendation is to use moving averages when there has been no structural change and to use last year’s basis or an alternative approach if the forecaster perceives that a structural change has occurred. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Basis forecast; Grain; Law of One Price; Moving averages; Structural change; Marketing. |
| Ano: 2010 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61057 |
| |
|
|
| Xiao, Hui; Kinnucan, Henry W.; Kaiser, Harry M.. |
| The dominant pattern in U.S. non-alcoholic drink: consumption over the past 25 years has been a steady increase in per capita soft-drink: consumption, largely at the expense of coffee (and to a lesser extent) milk consumption. Our findings suggest that the major factor governing this pattern is structural change. Specifically, trend was found to be statistically significant in three of the four equations estimated in the Rotterdam system. Moreover, the estimated trend-related changes in per capita consumption (-1.0 percent per year for milk, 2. 1 percent for soft drinks, and 3.7 percent for coffee and tea) leave at most 28 percent ofthe observed quantity variation for 1990-1994 to be accounted for by changes in relative prices, income, and advertising.... |
| Tipo: Working Paper |
Palavras-chave: Advertising; Beverage demand; Milk consumption; Structural change; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Marketing. |
| Ano: 1998 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122688 |
| |
|
| |
|
| |
|
|
| Ollinger, Michael; Nguyen, Sang V.; Blayney, Donald P.; Chambers, William; Nelson, Kenneth B.. |
| Processing plants in eight major food industries were highly productive before being acquired and they significantly improved their labor productivity afterward, Economic Research Service and U.S. Census Bureau researchers found in their analysis of Census data. The plant-level data on production inputs and costs provided a detailed picture of food-production facilities involved in mergers and acquisitions. The industries are meatpacking, meat processing, poultry slaughtering and processing, cheese making, fluid milk processing, flour milling, feed processing, and oilseed crushing. The analysis suggests that mergers and acquisitions contributed to the general improvement in labor productivity, echoing an earlier ERS study. Labor productivity is defined as... |
| Tipo: Report |
Palavras-chave: Mergers; Acquisitions; Labor productivity; Consolidation; Structural change; Agribusiness; Industrial Organization; Productivity Analysis. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7246 |
| |
|
|
| Happe, Kathrin; Balmann, Alfons; Kellermann, Konrad. |
| A central criticism common to agricultural economic modelling approaches for policy analy-sis is that they do not adequately take account of a number of characteristic factors of the agri-cultural sector. This concerns aspects like the immobility of land, heterogeneity of farms, in-teractions between farms, space, dynamic adjustment processes as well as dynamics of struc-tural change. In brief, modelling the complexity of the system has not been at the centre of interest. In terms of modelling complex economic systems, an agent-based modelling ap-proach is a suitable approach to quantitatively model and understand such systems in a more natural way. In the same way, this applies to the modelling of agricultural structures. In par-ticular, agent-based... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Agent-based systems; Multi-agent systems; Policy analysis; Structural change; Simulation; Agentenbasierte Systeme; Politikanalyse; Dynamische An-passungsprozesse und Strukturwandel. Kurz; Multi-Agentensysteme; Struktur-wandel; Agricultural and Food Policy; Q12; Q15. |
| Ano: 2004 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14886 |
| |
|
|
| Ollinger, Michael; Nguyen, Sang V.; Blayney, Donald P.; Chambers, William; Nelson, Kenneth B.. |
| Consolidation and structural changes in the food industry have had profound impacts on firms, employees, and communities in many parts of the United States. Over 1972-92, eight important food industries underwent a structural transformation in which the number of plants declined by about one-third and the number of employees needed to staff the remaining plants dropped by more than 100,000 (20 percent). The number of plants in one other industry also dropped, but that industry added jobs. Economists generally attribute structural changes such as these to rising or falling demand and shifts in technology. This report examines consolidation and structural change in meatpacking, meat processing, poultry slaughter and processing, cheese products, fluid milk,... |
| Tipo: Report |
Palavras-chave: Structural change; Food processing; Consolidation; Grain processing; Meat slaughter; Dairy processing; Industrial Organization. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7217 |
| |
|
|
| Wang, Xiaoyang; Garcia, Philip. |
| Price volatility in the corn market has changed considerably globalization and stronger linkages to the energy complex. Using data from January 1989 through December 2009, we estimate and forecast the volatility in the corn market using futures daily prices. Estimates in a Fractional Integrated GARCH framework identify the importance of long memory, seasonality, and structural change. Recursively generated forecasts for up to 40-day horizons starting in January 2005 highlight the importance of seasonality, and long memory specifications which perform well at more distant horizons particularly with rising volatility. The forecast benefits of allowing for structural change in an adaptive framework are more difficult to identify except at more distant... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Corn price volatility; Long memory; Seasonality; Structural change; Forecasting; Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2011 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103749 |
| |
|
| |
|
| |
|
|
| Ahearn, Mary Clare; Korb, Penelope J.; Banker, David E.. |
| This paper examines the industrialization process of U.S. agriculture by examining the trends in the number of farms, the concentration of production during the last decade, and the dynamics of farm survivability, entry, and exit underlying aggregate statistics. We next examine vertical coordination as part of the industrialization process and highlight contracting in the poultry industry. The analysis provides evidence that production is continuing to be concentrated on a smaller number of farms at a relatively rapid rate, in spite of the stability in the number of farms. Although contracting clearly dominates the broiler industry, it is less prevalent in egg and turkey production, where other forms of vertical coordination are likely established. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Broilers; Contracting; Eggs; Industrialization; Poultry; Structural change; Turkeys; Vertical integration; D23; D40; L11; L14 L22; L23; Q12. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43511 |
| |
|
| |
|
| |
|
|
| Goodwin, Barry K.; Harper, Daniel C.; Schnepf, Randall D.. |
| Fats and oils play a prominent role in U.S. dietary patterns. Recent concerns over the negative health consequences associated with fats and oils have led many to suspect structural change in demand conditions. Our analysis considers short run (monthly) demand relationships for edible fats and oils. In that monthly quantities of fats and oils are likely to be relatively fixed, an inverse almost ideal demand system specification is used. A smooth transition function is used to model a switching inverse almost ideal demand system that assesses short-run demand conditions for edible fats and oils in the United States. The results suggest that short-run demand conditions for fats and oils experienced a gradual structural shift that began in the late 1980s... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Fats and oils; Inverse demand system; Structural change; Q0; D1. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37858 |
| |
|
| |
|
| |
|
| |
|
| |
|
| |
|
|
| Bezemer, Dirk J.. |
| The replacement of wage-labour farms by family farms in Central and Eastern Europe during the transformation has been more limited than was initially expected. In this paper a formal framework is developed in order to analyse the behaviour of family farms and socialist-style farms in the presence of risk, given the typical post-socialist environment. Management incentives, ownership structure, lump-sum transfers and consumption choices are shown to have the potential to limit the size of family farms relative to socialist-style farms. The hypotheses are tested with survey data collected by the author in the Czech Republic. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Transition; Agriculture; Structural change; Risk; Survey data; Risk and Uncertainty; D21; D81; O18; Q12. |
| Ano: 2002 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24888 |
| |
| Registros recuperados: 92 | |
|
|
|
