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Calculation of uncertainties in influence quantities in biological essays 52
Morel,Pierre; Arruda,Tatiana Langbeck de; Bohrer-Morel,Maria Beatriz C..
Due to the need of showing the reliability of results from biological essays, such as in health and environmental areas, laboratories have been implementing quality systems, particularly ABNT NBR ISO/IEC 17025 (ABNT, 2001), which include as one of the requirements, the calculation of uncertainty in essays results. It is of common knowledge that estimating uncertainty in essays using organisms, such as animal and vegetal species, is difficult, preventing from meeting that requirement in the standard. The paper shows the calculation of uncertainties in influences quantities in these essays as a tool to allow validating the measuring process, by using the essays performed by Rhodia Environmental Impact Analysis Laboratory and IPEN Ecotoxicology Laboratory as...
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article Palavras-chave: Uncertainty; Influence quantities; Biological essays.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1516-89132006000200015
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Analytical quality in environmental studies: uncertainty evaluation of chemical concentrations determined by INAA 52
França,Elvis Joacir de; Fernandes,Elisabete A. De Nadai; Bacchi,Márcio Arruda; Saiki,Mitiko.
Instrumental neutron activation analysis (INAA) is a measurement technique of high metrological level for the determination of chemical elements. In the context of BIOTA/FAPESP Program, leaves of trees have been evaluated by INAA for biomonitoring purposes of the Atlantic Forest. To assure the comparability of results in environmental studies, a leaf sample of Marlierea tomentosa (Myrtaceae family) showing the lowest concentrations of chemical elements was selected for the evaluation of analytical quality of the determination under unfavorable conditions. Nevertheless, the homogeneity of chemical concentrations of sample at the 95% of confidence level has been achieved and INAA has presented repeatability of 2% for the determination of Br, Co, Cs, Fe, K,...
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article Palavras-chave: Uncertainty; INAA; Jackknife; Bootstrap.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1516-89132006000200016
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Evaluación mediante opciones reales en la producción de jitomate en invernadero. 32
Osorio Hernández, Olga Lidia.
La diversidad climática, tecnológica, económica y social que existe en el campo mexicano, las pequeñas unidades de producción con suelos degradados, problemas de escasez de agua, creciente contaminación e impactadas por un entorno con alteraciones climáticas, hace necesaria la trasformación del campo mexicano mediante tecnologías modernas y sustentables para impulsar el crecimiento sostenido y acelerado; como resultado de lo anterior, el gobierno federal implementó una política pública sobre agricultura protegida bajo el Programa de Apoyo a la Inversión en Equipamiento e Infraestructura. En este contexto, la presente investigación evalúa el proyecto de inversión para la construcción de un invernadero para la producción de jitomate a través de la teoría de...
Palavras-chave: Proyecto; Agricultura protegida; Inversión; Incertidumbre; Opciones reales; Project; Protected agriculture; Investment; Uncertainty; Real options; Maestría; Economía.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10521/779
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Evaluación mediante opciones reales en la producción de jitomate en invernadero. 32
Osorio Hernández, Olga Lidia.
La diversidad climática, tecnológica, económica y social que existe en el campo mexicano, las pequeñas unidades de producción con suelos degradados, problemas de escasez de agua, creciente contaminación e impactadas por un entorno con alteraciones climáticas, hace necesaria la trasformación del campo mexicano mediante tecnologías modernas y sustentables para impulsar el crecimiento sostenido y acelerado; como resultado de lo anterior, el gobierno federal implementó una política pública sobre agricultura protegida bajo el Programa de Apoyo a la Inversión en Equipamiento e Infraestructura. En este contexto, la presente investigación evalúa el proyecto de inversión para la construcción de un invernadero para la producción de jitomate a través de la teoría de...
Palavras-chave: Proyecto; Agricultura protegida; Inversión; Incertidumbre; Opciones reales; Project; Protected agriculture; Investment; Uncertainty; Real options; Maestría; Economía.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10521/779
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Utilización de opciones reales en proyectos de inversión agrícola 32
Domínguez Alonso, Roberto.
Las técnicas tradicionales para evaluar alternativas de inversión no capturan apropiadamente la incertidumbre asociada al proyecto, así como tampoco permiten considerar la flexibilidad gerencial en el proceso de toma de decisiones, por ello, han surgido instrumentos y metodologías complementarios que permiten administrar el riesgo, uno de estos instrumentos son las Opciones Reales, el cual es una analogía a las opciones financiera. En esta investigación se aplica esta metodología a dos casos de estudio. El primero se trata de un proyecto de inversión para el establecimiento de una planta empacadora de camarón en el sur de Sonora, en el que existe incertidumbre debido al riesgo tecnológico. El segundo se trata de un proyecto de inversión para el cultivo...
Tipo: Tesis Palavras-chave: Incertidumbre; Flexibilidad gerencial; Opciones reales; Proyecto de inversión; Riesgo; Doctorado; Economía; Uncertainty; Managerial flexibility; Real options; Investment project; Risk.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10521/1324
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Valores críticos para la evaluación de una empresa que inicia (START-UP) con opciones reales de crecimiento. 32
Cobián Romero, Lizbeth.
Una empresa innovadora que inicia en el mercado es conocida en la literatura como Start-Up; esté tipo de firmas al ser evaluadas con los métodos tradicionales (tasa interna de retorno, TIR; valor actual neto, VAN y relación benéfico-costo, B/C) son generalmente rechazadas debido a que no cuentan con información económico-financiera suficiente. El objetivo de éste trabajo fue determinar si la incorporación de las metodologías Opciones Reales y Valores Críticos a la evaluación tradicional agregan valor a empresas Start-Up. El caso que se trató fue el de una planta de bioplásticos. Para calcular la opción de compra al aumentar la producción se utilizó el método de Black-Scholes, que consiste en una ecuación y cinco variables. Para calcular el beneficio...
Palavras-chave: Black-Scholes; Evaluación de proyectos; Bioplástico; Riesgo; Incertidumbre; Project evaluation; Bioplastic; Risk; Uncertainty; Maestría; Economía.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10521/688
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Uncertainty in Discount Models and Environmental Accounting 7
Ludwig, Donald; University of British Columbia; Ludwig@math.ubc.ca; Brock, William A.; University of Wisconsin-Madison; WBrock@ssc.wisc.edu; Carpenter, Stephen R; University of Wisconsin-Madison; srcarpen@wisc.edu.
Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is controversial for environmental issues, but is nevertheless employed by many governments and private organizations for making environmental decisions. Controversy centers on the practice of economic discounting in CBA for decisions that have substantial long-term consequences, as do most environmental decisions. Customarily, economic discounting has been calculated at a constant exponential rate, a practice that weights the present heavily in comparison with the future. Recent analyses of economic data show that the assumption of constant exponential discounting should be modified to take into account large uncertainties in long-term discount rates. A proper treatment of this uncertainty requires that we consider returns...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Insight Palavras-chave: Atlantic right whale; Cost-benefit analysis; Discounting; Ecological economics; Ecosystem service; Eutrophication; Renewable resource; Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
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Dealing with Uncertainty in Flood Management Through Diversification 7
Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; ; jeroen.aerts@ivm.falw.vu.nl; Botzen, Wouter; ; Wouter.Botzen@ivm.falw.vu.nl; Veen, Anne van der; ; a.vanderveen@ctw.utwente.nl; Krywkow, Joerg; ; j.krywkow@ctw.utwente.nl; Werners, Saskia; ; Saskia.Werners@wur.nl.
This paper shows, through a numerical example, how to develop portfolios of flood management activities that generate the highest return under an acceptable risk for an area in the central part of the Netherlands. The paper shows a method based on Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) that contributes to developing flood management strategies. MPT aims at finding sets of investments that diversify risks thereby reducing the overall risk of the total portfolio of investments. This paper shows that through systematically combining four different flood protection measures in portfolios containing three or four measures; risk is reduced compared with portfolios that only contain one or two measures. Adding partly uncorrelated measures to the portfolio diversifies...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Adaptive water management; Diversification; Flood risk; Modern Portfolio Theory; Uncertainty; Vulnerability..
Ano: 2008
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Avoiding Environmental Catastrophes: Varieties of Principled Precaution 7
Johnson, Alan R; Clemson University; Alanj@Clemson.edu.
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Synthesis Palavras-chave: Adaptive management; Aldo Leopold; Ambiguity; Blaise Pascal; Daniel Ellsberg; Decision theory; Future generations; Gifford Pinchot; Intelligent tinkering; Precautionary principle; Resilience; Risk; Uncertainty.
Ano: 2012
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A Participatory Modeling Process to Capture Indigenous Ways of Adaptability to Uncertainty: Outputs From an Experiment in West African Drylands 7
d'Aquino, Patrick; CIRAD; daquino@cirad.fr; Bah, Alassane; UMISCO ESP UCAD Dakar; alassane.bah@gmail.com.
Over the centuries, local communities have shaped atypical rules to deal with the uncertainty of their environment. They have developed complex prototypes for flexible overlapping institutions and arrangements to adapt their rules and uses to their uncertain environment. Today, this indigenous way of flexibly institutionalizing access rules could provide blueprints for dealing with uncertainty issues resulting from global change as well as designing practical guidelines for implementing resilient management. However, transforming indigenous skills for developing institutional flexibility into operational management rules that are appropriate in the current environmental and socioeconomic context is a huge challenge. However, communities could easily...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Environment; Indigenous knowledge; Management; Modeling; Participation; Sahel; Senegal; Uncertainty.
Ano: 2013
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Visions of Alternative (Unpredictable) Futures and Their Use in Policy Analysis 7
Costanza, Robert; University of Maryland, Institute for Ecological Economics; rcostanz@zoo.uvm.edu.
The most critical task facing humanity today is the creation of a shared vision of a sustainable and desirable society, one that can provide permanent prosperity within the biophysical constraints of the real world in a way that is fair and equitable to all of humanity, to other species, and to future generations. Recent work with businesses and communities indicates that creating a shared vision is the most effective engine for change in the desired direction, yet most effort in "futures modeling" has focused on extrapolating past trends rather than envisioning alternative futures. Science and economics as applied to policy are in conflict more often over alternative visions of the world than purely "scientific" disagreements. Likewise, governance has...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Alternative futures; Change process; Envisioning; Public judgment; Public policy analysis; Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
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The Interplay of Well-being and Resilience in Applying a Social-Ecological Perspective 7
Armitage, Derek; University of Waterloo; derek.armitage@uwaterloo.ca; Charles, Anthony T; Saint Mary's University; Tony.Charles@SMU.CA; Johnson, Derek; University of Manitoba; derek_johnson@umanitoba.ca; Allison, Edward H; The WorldFish Center and the University of East Anglia; e.allison@cgiar.org.
Innovative combinations of social and ecological theory are required to deal with complexity and change in human-ecological systems. We examined the interplay and complementarities that emerge by linking resilience and social well-being approaches. First, we reflected on the limitations of applying ecological resilience concepts to social systems from the perspective of social theory, and particularly, the concept of well-being. Second, we examined the interplay of resilience and well-being concepts in fostering a social-ecological perspective that promises more appropriate management and policy actions. We examined five key points of interplay: (1) the limits of optimization thinking (e.g., maximum sustainable yield), (2) the role of human agency and...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Synthesis Palavras-chave: Adaptation; Agency; Governance; Integration; Interdisciplinarity; Policy; Sustainability; Thresholds; Transdisciplinarity; Uncertainty.
Ano: 2012
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The Rauischholzhausen Agenda for Road Ecology 7
Roedenbeck, Inga A.; University of Giessen; inga.roedenbeck@agrar.uni-giessen.de; Fahrig, Lenore; Carleton University; lenore_fahrig@carleton.ca; Findlay, C. Scott; University of Ottawa; sfindlay@science.uottawa.ca; Houlahan, Jeff E; University of New Brunswick at Saint John; jeffhoul@unbsj.ca; Jaeger, Jochen A. G.; Concordia University; jochen.jaeger@env.ethz.ch; Kramer-Schadt, Stephanie; UFZ Centre for Environmental Research Leipzig-Halle; stephanie.kramer@ufz.de; van der Grift, Edgar A; ALTERRA Wageningen; edgar.vandergrift@wur.nl.
Despite the documented negative effects of roads on wildlife, ecological research on road effects has had comparatively little influence on road planning decisions. We argue that road research would have a larger impact if researchers carefully considered the relevance of the research questions addressed and the inferential strength of the studies undertaken. At a workshop at the German castle of Rauischholzhausen we identified five particularly relevant questions, which we suggest provide the framework for a research agenda for road ecology: (1) Under what circumstances do roads affect population persistence? (2) What is the relative importance of road effects vs. other effects on population persistence? (3) Under what circumstances can road effects be...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Insight Palavras-chave: Road ecology; Research agenda; Experimental design; Hierarchy of study designs; Methodological standard; Before-after-control-impact design; Before-after design; Control-impact design; Inferential strength; Weight of evidence; Uncertainty; Landscape scale; Extrapolation; Population persistence; Road networks; Road effects; Mitigation; Decision making.
Ano: 2007
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Uncertainty as Information: Narrowing the Science-policy Gap 7
Bradshaw, G. A.; National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS) and USDA Forest S; bradshaw@nceas.ucsb.edu; Borchers, Jeffrey G; Department of Forest Science, Oregon State University; borcherj@ucs.orst.edu.
Conflict and indecision are hallmarks of environmental policy formulation. Some argue that the requisite information and certainty fall short of scientific standards for decision making; others argue that science is not the issue and that indecisiveness reflects a lack of political willpower. One of the most difficult aspects of translating science into policy is scientific uncertainty. Whereas scientists are familiar with uncertainty and complexity, the public and policy makers often seek certainty and deterministic solutions. We assert that environmental policy is most effective if scientific uncertainty is incorporated into a rigorous decision-theoretic framework as knowledge, not ignorance. The policies that best utilize scientific findings are defined...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Adaptive management; Decision making; Environmental policy; Global climate change; Monitoring; Risk; Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
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Anticipating future risk in social-ecological systems using fuzzy cognitive mapping: the case of wildfire in the Chiquitania, Bolivia 7
Devisscher, Tahia; Environmental Change Institute‬, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford; Stockholm Environment Institute; tahia.devisscher@ouce.ox.ac.uk; Boyd, Emily; Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, University of Reading; Lund University Centre for Sustainability Studies; emily.boyd@reading.ac.uk; Malhi, Yadvinder; Environmental Change Institute‬, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford; yadvinder.malhi@ouce.ox.ac.uk.
Understanding complex social-ecological systems, and anticipating how they may respond to rapid change, requires an approach that incorporates environmental, social, economic, and policy factors, usually in a context of fragmented data availability. We employed fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) to integrate these factors in the assessment of future wildfire risk in the Chiquitania region, Bolivia. In this region, dealing with wildfires is becoming increasingly challenging because of reinforcing feedbacks between multiple drivers. We conducted semistructured interviews and constructed different FCMs in focus groups to understand the regional dynamics of wildfire from diverse perspectives. We used FCM modelling to evaluate possible adaptation scenarios in the...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Adaptation; Climate change; Complexity; Scenario; Social-ecological system; Uncertainty; Wildfire risk.
Ano: 2016
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Uncertainty, Climate Change, and Adaptive Management 7
Peterson, Garry; McGill University; garry.peterson@mcgill.ca; De Leo, Giulio A; Agenzia Regionale per la Protezione dell' Ambiente; deleo@dsa.unipr.it; Hellmann, Jessica J; Stanford University; jessicah@leland.stanford.edu; Janssen, Marco A; Indiana University; maajanss@indiana.edu; Kinzig, Ann; Arizona State University; Ann.Kinzig@asu.edu; Malcolm, Jay R; University of Toronto; jay.malcolm@utoronto.ca; O'Brien, Karen L; -; kobrien@online.no; Pope, Shealagh E; Environment Canada; shealagh.pope@ec.gc.ca; Rothman, Dale S; Columbia University; drothman@bio2.edu; Shevliakova, Elena; Carnegie Mellon University; lenish@cmu.edu; Tinch, Robert R.T.; York University, UK; rrtt100@york.ac.uk.
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Adaptive management; Climate change; Global change; Uncertainty; Models.
Ano: 1997
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How Personal Judgment Influences Scenario Development: an Example for Future Rural Development in Europe 7
Metzger, Marc J.; Centre for the Study of Environmental Change and Sustainability (CECS), University of Edinburgh ; Alterra Wageningen University and Research Centre; marc.metzger@ed.ac.uk; Rounsevell, Mark D.A.; Centre for the study of Environmental Change and Sustainability (CECS), University of Edinburgh;; Van den Heiligenberg, Harm A.R.M.; Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL); Province of Utrecht;; Soto Hardiman, Paul; Grupo Alba;.
Scenarios of alternative plausible futures have been used extensively to explore the potential effects of socioeconomic and environmental change. The ultimate objective of any explorative scenario exercise is to assess the variation in possible futures to provide insights into the range of potential outcomes. These results provide stakeholders with guidance for policy development, planning, and management. We explore how personal judgment can influence scenario development. Scenarios for the future of European rural regions are used to explore alternative outcomes under a public interventionist future and a market liberalization oriented future. A transparent qualitative framework is used to identify differences in outcomes based on personal judgment....
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Insight Palavras-chave: Common Agricultural Policy reform; Explorative scenarios; Personal judgment; Rural development; Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
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Landscape Change in the Southern Piedmont: Challenges, Solutions, and Uncertainty Across Scales 7
Conroy, Michael J; USGS Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit; conroy@forestry.uga.edu; Allen, Craig; University of Nebraska; allencr@unl.edu; Peterson, James T; USGS Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit;; Pritchard, Lowell, Jr.; Emory University; lpritc2@emory.edu; Moore, Clinton T; ;.
The southern Piedmont of the southeastern United States epitomizes the complex and seemingly intractable problems and hard decisions that result from uncontrolled urban and suburban sprawl. Here we consider three recurrent themes in complicated problems involving complex systems: (1) scale dependencies and cross-scale, often nonlinear relationships; (2) resilience, in particular the potential for complex systems to move to alternate stable states with decreased ecological and/or economic value; and (3) uncertainty in the ability to understand and predict outcomes, perhaps particularly those that occur as a result of human impacts. We consider these issues in the context of landscape-level decision making, using as an example water resources and lotic...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Piedmont; Adaptive management; Land use; Model; Resilience; Scale; Sprawl; Uncertainty; Urbanization; Water resources.
Ano: 2003
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The Challenge of Collecting and Using Environmental Monitoring Data 7
Biber, Eric; University of California, Berkeley; ebiber@law.berkeley.edu.
The monitoring of ambient environmental conditions is essential to environmental management and regulation. However, effective monitoring is subject to a range of institutional, political, and legal constraints, constraints that are a product of the need for monitoring to be continuous, long lived, and well matched to the resources being studied. Political pressure or myopia, conflicting agency goals, the need for institutional autonomy, or a reluctance of agency scientists to pursue monitoring all may make it difficult for ambient monitoring to be effectively undertaken. Even if effective monitoring data is gathered, it may not be used in decision making. The inevitable residual uncertainty in monitoring data allows stakeholders to contest the use of...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Synthesis Palavras-chave: Environmental law; Monitoring; Uncertainty.
Ano: 2013
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Foghorns to the Future: Using Knowledge and Transdisciplinarity to Navigate Complex Systems 7
Cundill, Georgina N. R.; Rhodes University; gcundill@rides.cl; Fabricius, Christo; Rhodes University; c.fabricius@ru.ac.za; Marti, Neus; Autonomous University; neus@amauta.rcp.net.pe.
Complex systems are shaped by cross-scale interactions, nonlinear feedbacks, and uncertainty, among other factors. Transdisciplinary approaches that combine participatory and conventional methods and democratize knowledge to enable diverse inputs, including those from local, informal experts, are essential tools in understanding such systems. The metaphor of a “bridge” to overcome the divide between different disciplines and knowledge systems is often used to advocate for more inclusive approaches. However, there is a shortage of information and consensus on the process, methodologies, and techniques that are appropriate to achieve this. This paper compares two case studies from Peru and South Africa in which community-level assessments...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Synthesis Palavras-chave: Ecological assessment; Community-based assessment; Complexity; Scale; Epistemology; Methodology; Millennium Ecosystem Assessment; Complex systems; Uncertainty; Peru; South Africa; Case studies; Transdisciplinary research.
Ano: 2005
Registros recuperados: 221
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