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Weather risk and machinery costs – A Monte Carlo simulation for the wheat harvest AgEcon
Lips, Markus; Bolli, Simon.
In eastern Switzerland there is a substantial weather risk during the wheat harvest. Increasing the number of available combine harvesters reduces harvest losses due to bad weather conditions, whilst increasing machinery costs. Simulating weather risk, we analyse harvest losses and machinery costs. In doing so, we apply both a deterministic and a stochastic approach – the latter by means of a Monte Carlo simulation. The costs per hectare of wheat are higher in the stochastic approach, because bad weather conditions lead to high costs. There is no difference between the two approaches in terms of minimum costs, which in both cases are achieved by a density of 20 harvesters per 1000 hectares. Calculation results are lower than the actual density, which is...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Weather risk; Wheat harvest; Monte Carlo simulation; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9249
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