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Agricultural economics and transition: What was expected, what we observed, the lessons learned Proceedings (Volume I / II) AgEcon
Csaki, Csaba; Forgacs, Csaba; Koester, Ulrich; Liefert, William M.; Banse, Martin; Gay, Stephan Hubertus; McDonald, Scott; M'Barek, Robert; Swinnen, Johan F.M.; Kim, Hanho; An, Donghwan; Hubbard, Lionel J.; Rieger, Laszlo; Szoke, Gyula; Cristoiu, Adriana; Udovc, Andrej; Kagan, Adam; Sassi, Maria; Takacs, Istvan; Takacs, Emese; Cimpoies, Dragos; Ertsey, Imre; Kovacs, Sandor; Przygodzka, Renata; Dziemianowicz, Ryta Iwona; Magda, Robert; Borodina, Elena; Borodina, Alexandra; Gavrilescu, Dinu; Pecze, Denes; Balogh, Peter; Cechura, Lukas; Sayin, Cengiz; Cengiz, M. Nisa; Osanami, Fumio; Szabo, Gabor G.; Karaman, Suleyman; Szekely, Geza; Szczepaniak, Iwona; Szczegolska, Monika; Serova, Eugenia; Pieniadz, Agata; Barmon, Basanta Kumar; Kondo, Takumi; Becvarova, Vera; Levkovych, Inna; Hockmann, Heinrich; Bezlepkina, Irina V.; Kupavych, Alexander; Konig, Gabor; Halmai, Peter; Vasary, Viktoria; Vincze, Maria-Magdolna; Lerman, Zvi; Kolcsey, Andrea; Bokusheva, Raushan; Turtoi, Crina Sinziana; Toma, Camelia; Gavrilescu, Camelia; Davidova, Sophia; Blaas, Gejza; Antonova, Maria; Zeller, Manfred; Deininger, Klaus W.; Savastano, Sara; Carletto, Calogero; Caceres-Clavero, Francisco; Lucena-Cobos, Blanca; Latruffe, Laure; Takacs-Gyorgy, Katalin; Bandlerova, Anna; Sadowski, Adam; Gomez y Paloma, Sergio; Luca, Lucian; Cristoiu, Adriana; Ciaian, Pavel; Pokrivcak, Jan; Drabik, Dusan; Voneki, Eva; Tonini, Axel; Burger, Anna; Szep, Katalin; Majewski, Edward; Raggi, Meri; Viaggi, Davide; Maccarini, Elisa Ricci; Monasterolo, Irene; Vandeplas, Anneleen; Jongeneel, Roelof A.; Novak, Petr; Brasili, Cristina; Meyer, William H.; Kuhne, Bianka; Fanfani, Roberto; Gellynck, Xavier; Molnar, Adrienn; Gagalyuk, Taras; Traikova, Diana; Mollers, Judith; Cochrane, Nancy J.; Kazlauskiene, Natalija; Fekete-Farkas, Maria; Molnar, Jozsef; Szucs, Istvan; Popp, Jozsef; Udovecz, Gabor; Florkowski, Wojciech J.; Fritzsch, Jana; Buchenrieder, Gertrud; Kasarjyan, Milada; Podruzsik, Szilard; Korff, Rudiger; Wilkin, Jerzy; van Leeuwen, Myrna; Bartova, Lubica; Erjavec, Emil; Katona-Kovacs, Judit; Baranyai, Zsolt; Hubbard, Carmen.
Over fifteen years have elapsed since the transition from the centrally planned economic system started in the early 1990’s. During this time agricultural and rural areas of Central and Eastern Europe have undergone profound structural changes with wide variations in the degree of transformation and in the rate of success in creating a competitive market and private ownership based food and agricultural system. By becoming member of the European Union the "transition" in its traditional interpretation has been concluded in ten of the Central East European countries. The transition to market based agriculture, however, is far from completion in Southern and Eastern Europe and especially in the CIS countries. International Association of Agricultural...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Farm Management; Financial Economics; Industrial Organization; International Development; International Relations/Trade; Land Economics/Use; Production Economics.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/92319
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Agricultural Incomes Development in EU till 2030: Scenario Analysis of Main Driving Factors AgEcon
Tabeau, Andrzej A.; van Meijl, Hans; Banse, Martin; Woltjer, Geert B..
Europe’s rural areas are expected to witness rapid changes due to developments in demography, (agricultural) policies, global trade, climate change, technology and enlargement of the European Union. These changes will affect farmers’ production and income level and make the final outcome of this process uncertain. This paper tries to assess this uncertainty by analyzing the results of 34 scenarios of the EURURALIS project. The scenario outcomes were used to investigate agricultural income development and to analyze the impact of different combinations of macroeconomic and policy factors on agricultural income. The results of these scenarios were achieved in a modeling framework consisting of a modified version of the Global Trade Analysis Project model...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agricultural incomes and production; Agricultural policy; Long-term scenarios.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48115
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Agricultural Market Performance in the EU after the 2000 and 2003 CAP Reform An Ex-post Evaluation based on AGMEMOD AgEcon
Banse, Martin; van Leeuwen, Myrna; Tabeau, Andrzej A.; Salamon, Petra; Ledebur, Oliver von.
The paper investigates the CAP impacts on the EU agriculture by means of policy simulations conducted with the AGMEMOD model. To isolate the policy effects in the historical period 2000-2005, counterfactual simulations for this period are run. To simulate the response of the EU agriculture on different policy changes in the period 2006-2020, a ‘no-policy change’ baseline scenario is developed and then policy experiments are conducted such as the abolition of milk quota, the implementation of the regional payments and some budget cuts. To identify the policy effects, the policy scenarios are compared with the ‘no-policy change’ baseline.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: CAP Reform; Ex-post evaluation; Agricultural sector modelling; Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/99366
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Agriculture in the Face of Changing Markets, Institutions and Policies: Challenges and Strategies AgEcon
Balmann, Alfons; Curtiss, Jarmila; Dautzenberg, Kirsti; Happe, Kathrin; Huang, Jikun; Swinnen, Johan F.M.; Rozelle, Scott; Sedik, David J.; Ciaian, Pavel; Vranken, Liesbet; Doitchinova, Julia M.; Kanchev, Ivan; Miteva, Albena; Bachev, Hrabrin Ianouchev; Forgacs, Csaba; Guo, Hongdong; Ferto, Imre; Jolly, Robert W.; Zhu, Jianhua; Falkowski, Jan; Milczarek, Dominika; Peyerl, Hermann; Breuer, Gunter; Danilowska, Alina; Zawojska, Aldona; Ramanovich, Mikhail; Hemme, Torsten; Mirzaei, Farhad; Heidelbach, Olaf; Balkhausen, Oliver; Banse, Martin; Perekhozhuk, Oleksandr; Grings, Michael; Luka, Oksana; Epstein, David B.; Naydenov, Nikolay; Sauer, Johannes; Balint, Borbala; Il'ina, Natalia; Svetlov, Nikolai M.; Weitzel, Enno-Burghard; Bayaner, Ahmet; Bakucs, Lajos Zoltan; Hockmann, Heinrich; Cechura, Lukas; Herzfeld, Thomas; Glauben, Thomas; Azzarri, Carlo; Carletto, Calogero; Davis, Benjamin; Zezza, Alberto; Nivievskyi, Oleg; von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan; Newton, Claire; Bednarikova, Zuzana; Doucha, Tomas; Travnicek, Zdenek; Fock, Theodor.
Since the late 1980s, agriculture in Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) has been under considerable adjustment pressure due to changing political, economic and institutional environments. These changes have been linked to the transition process, as well as the ongoing integration into the European Union and the world market. Reduced subsidies, increased environmental and food quality demands, as well as structural changes in the supply, processing and food retailing sector call for major structural adjustments and the improvement of farmers’ managerial abilities. Though such changes always carry significant threats to farms, they also offer new opportunities for the farms' entrepreneurial engagement. Upcoming changes in the agricultural...
Tipo: Book Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Farm Management; Industrial Organization; International Development; Labor and Human Capital; Land Economics/Use; Productivity Analysis.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/93012
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Biofuel do Brasil? - Impact of Multinational Biofuel Mandates on Agri-food Trade AgEcon
Banse, Martin; Junker, Franziska; Prins, Anne Gerdien; Stehfest, Elke; Tabeau, Andrzej A.; Woltjer, Geert B.; van Meijl, Hans.
This paper analyzes the consequences of enhanced biofuel production in regions and countries of the world that have announced plans to implement or expand on biofuel policies. The analysis considers not only mandatory blending targets for transportation fuels, but also voluntary ones. The chosen quantitative modeling approach is two-fold: it combines a multi-sectoral economic model (LEITAP) with a spatial bio-physical land use model (IMAGE). This paper adds to existing research by considering biofuel policies in the EU, the US and various other countries with considerable agricultural production and trade, such as Brazil, India and China. Moreover, the combination of the two modeling systems allows for the observation of changes in both economic and...
Tipo: Presentation Palavras-chave: Biofuel mandates; Land use changes; Greenhouse gas emissions; International Relations/Trade; Land Economics/Use; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/123838
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Budgetary Effects of Including the CEC into Dynamic Modulation AgEcon
Banse, Martin; Grethe, Harald.
The EU Commission suggests to exclude CEC from the dynamic modulation mechanism, being part of the MTR package. This article looks at the distributional aspects of including the CEC into dynamic modulation. Under the current accession proposal the CEC would account for only 18% of the rural development budget by 2006. If modulation would be realised with the CEC being excluded this share would drop to 14% by 2010. According to the criteria proposed by the Commission for the distribution of the modulation budget the CEC would get a higher share of the modulation budget if they were included as they account for high shares in agricultural area and employment, and their GDP per capita is relatively low. Based on the assumptions made for this article they...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Modulation; EU-enlargement; CAP-budget; Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98270
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Competitiveness in the Food Industry: a CGE Modelling Approach to assess Foreign Direct Investment in Transition Countries AgEcon
Banse, Martin; Gay, Stephan Hubertus; McDonald, Scott; M'Barek, Robert; Swinnen, Johan F.M..
For transition countries, the food industry sector is a key industry in terms of output and employment shares. As a competitive sector that receives substantial foreign direct investments (FDI), it plays an important role as an element in the process of integration in the European and world market. The GLOBE Computable General Equilibrium model is applied to analyse scenarios of alternative development pathways of the food industry sector, taking into account the impact of FDI in the European food industry. The scenario analyses of this study identify that with an enhanced attraction of FDI in the food processing industries in the New Member States (NMS) the integration of the agri-food sectors in the NMS into the Single European Market will become even...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Food industry; Foreign direct investment; CGE; Transition countries; Agribusiness; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8525
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Consequences of EU Biofuel Policies on Agricultural Production and Land Use AgEcon
Banse, Martin; van Meijl, Hans; Woltjer, Geert B..
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; D58; Q13; Q24; Q27; Q28.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/94666
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Development of Agricultural Market and Trade Policies in the CEE Candidate Countries. AgEcon
Sepp, Mati; Gorton, Matthew; Miglavs, Andris; Kazlauskiene, Natalija; Meyers, William H.; Guba, Waldemar; Ratinger, Tomas; Safin, Marius; Simon, Françoise; Bozik, Marian; Michalek, Jerzy; Banse, Martin; Ferenczi, Tibor; Bojnec, Stefan; Turk, Jernej; Dalton, Graham E.; Turtoi, Crina Sinziana; Vincze, Maria-Magdolna; Davidova, Sophia; Ivanova, Nedka Momtscheva; Mishev, Plamen Dimitrov; Abele, Steffen; Frohberg, Klaus; Hartmann, Monika; Matthews, Alan; Weingarten, Peter.
This synthesis report focuses on the evolution of agricultural market and trade policies in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) candidate countries in the period 1997 to 2001. The developments were crucially influenced by (OECD, 2000a): • the situation in world agricultural markets; • the overall macroeconomic development in the countries considered; • the prospective EU accession; • bringing domestic agricultural policy in line with the Uruguay Agreement on Agriculture (URAA). High 1997 agricultural prices on world commodity markets were followed by a marked depression in 1998. With the exemption of milk products this trend continued in 1999. Likewise the economic and financial crisis in Russia had a considerable impact on agricultural policies. It hit...
Tipo: Book Palavras-chave: Industrial Organization; International Development; Productivity Analysis.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/93083
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Die zukünftige Ausgestaltung der Direktzahlungen – Eine quantitative Analyse möglicher Reformen in einer erweiterten Europäischen Union AgEcon
Banse, Martin; Nolle, Ferdinand.
The introduction of the current Common European Agricultural Policy in ten new member states in central and eastern Europe will be a major financial challenge for the European Union. On the basis of the partial equilibrium model ESIM this article analyses potential consequences of different options for a reformed CAP. While the impact on agricultural markets will be relatively small, the financial burden of a harmonisation of agricultural policies and an introduction of direct payments in the new member states has to be carried mainly by the old member states of the EU-15. The burden of the main net-payers, especially Germany, would be significantly lower, if CAP were reformed according to the proposals of the EU-Commission's Mid-term Report. However, the...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: EU Enlargement; EU Mid-term Report; Costs of CAP; Partial equilibrium analysis; Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98271
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EFFECTS OF A POTENTIAL NEW BIOFUEL DIRECTIVE ON EU LAND USE AND AGRICULTURAL MARKETS AgEcon
Banse, Martin; Grethe, Harald.
In its Progress Report on Biofuels the European Commission proposes a more restrictive biofuel directive which sets a mandatory minimum share of biofuels in total fuel consumption in the transport sector of 10% per Member State by 2020. This is likely to have a strong impact on demand for biofuel inputs such as plant oils, cereals and sugar beet. To analyze the effects of this proposal on land use and agricultural markets, an extended version of the partial equilibrium model ESIM of the European agricultural sector is developed and applied which covers the production of and demand for biofuels. Two policy scenarios are simulated for the projection horizon until 2020: a baseline under which the share of biofuels in total transport fuels increases to 6.9% by...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Biofuels; EU Biofuels Directive; Agricultural markets; Partial equilibrium modeling; Land Economics/Use; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6331
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Factor Markets in Applied Equilibrium Models: The current state and planned extensions towards an improved presentation of factor markets in agriculture AgEcon
Shutes, Lindsay; Rothe, Andrea; Banse, Martin.
This paper describes how factor markets are presented in applied equilibrium models and how we plan to improve and to extend the presentation of factor markets in two specific models: MAGNET and ESIM. We do not argue that partial equilibrium models should become more ‘general’ in the sense of integrating all factor markets, but that the shift of agricultural income policies to decoupled payments linked to land in the EU necessitates the inclusion of land markets in policy-relevant modelling tools. To this end, this paper outlines options to integrate land markets in partial equilibrium models. A special feature of general equilibrium models is the inclusion of fully integrated factor markets in the system of equations to describe the functionality of a...
Tipo: Working Paper Palavras-chave: Factor Markets; Applied Equilibrium Models; Extensions; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122851
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Future of European agriculture after the Health Check AgEcon
Banse, Martin; Helming, John F.M.; Nowicki, Peter; van Meijl, Hans.
This paper identifies major future trends and driving factors and perspectives and challenges resulting from them for European agriculture and food sectors until the year 2020. The focus of the paper is an analysis of key driving forces and the provision of a well developed reference scenario under the assumption of continued CAP reform and taking into account the framework discussions in the Doha Development Round. To assess the impact of policies the paper also examines a liberalisation (no support) and regionalization (maximum support) scenario. In terms of policy options the paper shows that the structural change process in agriculture (measured in terms of agricultural share in GDP) is a long-term process that continues with or without policy changes....
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Economic modelling; Future; CAP policy options; Structural change; Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97588
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Impact of different biofuel policy options on agricultural production and land use in Germany AgEcon
Banse, Martin; Sorda, Giovanni.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Biofuel; Environmental Economics and Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53251
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Impact of EU Biofuel Policies on World Agricultural and Food Markets AgEcon
Banse, Martin; van Meijl, Hans; Tabeau, Andrzej A.; Woltjer, Geert B..
This paper assesses the global and sectoral implications of the EU biofuels directive in a multi-region computable general equilibrium framework. Our results show that without mandatory blending or subsidies to stimulate the use of biofuel crops in the petroleum sector the targets of the EU Biofuel directive will not the reached in 2010. With mandatory blending the enhanced demand for biofuel crops has a strong impact on agriculture at the global and European level. The additional demand from the energy sector might slow down or reverse the long term process of declining agricultural prices.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Biofuels; EU biofuel directive; Agricultural markets; Computable General Equilibrium modeling; Agribusiness; International Relations/Trade; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6476
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Impact of Russia and Ukraine on the international price formation and the EU markets - A Model based analysis AgEcon
Banse, Martin; Salamon, Petra; Ledebur, Oliver von; van Leeuwen, Myrna; Bouma, Foppe; Salputra, Guna; Fellmann, Thomas; Nekhay, Olexandr.
This paper examines the effect of the future developments of Russian and Ukrainian agricultural sectors and their impact on the world market prices for arable crops. Employed in the study is AGMEMOD, a partial equilibrium economic model of EU agriculture at the Member State level that has been extended by Russia and Ukraine to gain quantitative insights. Vital for the project has also been the integration of an endogenous world market price module including a stylized Rest of the World (ROW) model. In Russia and Ukraine, there is a strong focus on plant production in general and on grain based animal production; Russia and Ukraine are mostly net-exports of those products. Under the baseline, in Russia prices for crops and oilseeds are below the world...
Tipo: Presentation Palavras-chave: Partial equilibrium model; Price formation; Russia; Ukraine; Agricultural and Food Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122536
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Impact of the EU Biofuels Directive on the EU food supply chain AgEcon
Tabeau, Andrzej A.; Banse, Martin; Woltjer, Geert B.; van Meijl, Hans.
The paper investigates the impact of the EU Biofuels Directive (BFD) on the EU agri-food supply chain using the computable general equilibrium model of the world economy named LEITAP. LEITAP is an extended version of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model including an improved land market modeling, substitution possibilities between capital and energy as well as between different energy sources including biofuels, feed byproducts of the biofuel production process and substitution between different feed components and feed byproducts. The simulation results shows that the implementation of the EU BFD has a pronounced impact on the markets of cereals, oilseeds and sugar and shows only a limited impact on production and consumption of other agrifood...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: EU Biofuels Directive; Food supply chain; Indirect land use changes; Computable general equilibrium model.; Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/58148
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Modellierung der Auswirkungen einer Entkopplung der Direktzahlungen in der EU auf die Flächenallokation und Wiederkäuerproduktion: Eine Analyse unterschiedlicher Modellergebnisse AgEcon
Balkhausen, Oliver; Banse, Martin; Grethe, Harald; Nolte, Stephan.
Decoupling of direct payments can be expected to have complex effects and the net effect on crop and fodder acreage is unclear. A literature review reveals that various simulation models uniformly project a decline of the cereal and silage maize acreage as well as ruminant production in the EU-15 in the course of decoupling of direct payments. In contrast, model results are mixed with respect to the direction of the decoupling effect on oilseed and pasture as well as voluntary set aside area. The model type is not found to have a systematic effect on model results. It is rather the assumptions about the effects of direct payments on production which differ widely and drive model results to a large extent. A model analysis which is based on the partial...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Decoupling; Direct payments; Land allocation; Partial equilibrium agricultural sector models; Agricultural and Food Policy; Land Economics/Use.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97401
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Modelling the Consequences of Increasing Bioenergy Demand on Land and Feed Use AgEcon
Banse, Martin; Tabeau, Andrzej A.; van Meijl, Hans; Woltjer, Geert B..
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Bioenergy Production; CGE modeling; Land Demand; Feed Demand; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Land Economics/Use.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61082
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MODELLING THE EFFECTS OF EU SUGAR MARKET LIBERALIZATION ON AREA ALLOCATION, PRODUCTION AND TRADE AgEcon
Grethe, Harald; Nolte, Stephan; Banse, Martin.
This paper presents a partial equilibrium simulation analysis of EU sugar market reforms with a version of the European Simulation Model (ESIM) addressing three issues: preferential EU imports are a function of the price differential between world market and EU price, EU supply functions are estimated based on FADN data, and the production of bioethanol in the EU and the rest of the world is taken into account as an important component in sugar beet and sugar cane demand. It is found that the current sugar market reform including the restructuring process until the end of 2007 is sufficient to allow the EU to comply with its WTO commitments only very narrowly. EU sugar supply is simulated to decrease from roughly 19 million tons in the base period to 15.5...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Sugar; Common Agricultural Policy; Sugar Market Reform; Partial Equilibrium Modelling; Everything But Arms; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6329
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