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Registros recuperados: 31
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A Good Opening: The Key to Make the Most of Unilateral Climate Action AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; De Cian, Enrica.
In this paper we argue that when a subgroup of countries cooperate on emission reduction, the optimal response of non-signatory countries reflects the interaction between three potentially opposing factors, the incentive to free-ride on the benefits of cooperation, the incentive to expand the demand of fossil fuels, and the incentive to adopt cleaner technologies introduced by the coalition. Using an Integrated Assessment Model with a game theoretic structure we find that cost-benefit considerations would lead OECD countries to undertake a moderate, but increasing abatement effort (in line with the pledges subscribed in Copenhagen). Even if emission reductions are moderate, OECD countries find it optimal to allocate part of their resources to energy...
Tipo: Working Paper Palavras-chave: Technology Spillovers; Climate Change; Partial Cooperation; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q54; Q55; C72.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/119104
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Abatement Cost Uncertainty and Policy Instrument Selection under a Stringent Climate Policy. A Dynamic Analysis AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Golub, Alexander; Markandya, Anil; Massetti, Emanuele; Tavoni, Massimo.
This paper investigates the relative economic and environmental outcomes of price versus quantity mechanisms to control GHG emissions when abatement costs are uncertain. In particular, we evaluate the impacts on policy costs, CO2 emissions and energy R&D for a stringent mitigation target of 550 ppmv CO2 equivalent (i.e. 450 for CO2 only) concentrations. The analysis is performed in an optimal growth framework via Monte Carlo simulations of the integrated assessment model WITCH (World Induced Technical Change Hybrid). Results indicate that the price instrument stochastically dominates the quantity instrument when a stringent stabilization policy is in place.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Abatement Costs; Climate Policy; Environmental Economics and Policy; H2; C6; Q5.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6383
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Accounting for Uncertainty Affecting Technical Change in an Economic-Climate Model AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Drouet, Laurent.
The key role of technological change in the decline of energy and carbon intensities of aggregate economic activities is widely recognized. This has focused attention on the issue of developing endogenous models for the evolution of technological change. With a few exceptions this is done using a deterministic framework, even though technological change is a dynamic process which is uncertain by nature. Indeed, the two main vectors through which technological change may be conceptualized, learning through R&D investments and learning-by-doing, both evolve and cumulate in a stochastic manner. How misleading are climate strategies designed without accounting for such uncertainty? The main idea underlying the present piece of research is to assess and...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12143
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Alternative Paths toward a Low Carbon World AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Carraro, Carlo; Tavoni, Massimo.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Climate Policy; Stabilization Costs; Environmental Economics and Policy; C72; H23; Q25; Q28.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/90948
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Ambiguous Aggregation of Expert Opinions: The Case of Optimal R&D Investment AgEcon
Athanassoglou, Stergios; Bosetti, Valentina; Maere d'Aertrycke, Gauthier de.
How should a decision-maker allocate R&D funds when a group of experts provides divergent estimates on a technology's potential effectiveness? To address this question, we propose a simple decision-theoretic framework that takes into account ambiguity over the aggregation of expert opinion and a decision-maker's attitude towards it. In line with the paper's focus on R&D investment, decision variables in our model may affect experts' subjective probability distributions of the future potential of a technology. Using results from convex optimization, we are able to establish a number of analytical results including a closed-form expression of our model's value function, as well as a thorough investigation of its differentiability properties. We apply...
Tipo: Working Paper Palavras-chave: Ambiguity; Expert Opinions; R&D; Convex/Conic Optimization; Aggregation; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; C61; D81; Q42.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/121719
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Banking Permits: Economic Efficiency and Distributional Effects AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Carraro, Carlo; Massetti, Emanuele.
Most analyses of the Kyoto flexibility mechanisms focus on the cost effectiveness of “where” flexibility (e.g. by showing that mitigation costs are lower in a global permit market than in regional markets or in permit markets confined to Annex 1 countries). Less attention has been devoted to “when” flexibility, i.e. to the benefits of allowing emission permit traders to bank their permits for future use. In the model presented in this paper, banking of carbon allowances in a global permit market is fully endogenised, i.e. agents may decide to bank permits by taking into account their present and future needs and the present and future decisions of all the other agents. It is therefore possible to identify under what conditions traders find it optimal to...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Emission Trading; Banking; Environmental Economics and Policy; International Relations/Trade; C72; H23; Q25; Q28.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6362
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Benchmarking in Tourism Destination, Keeping in Mind the Sustainable Paradigm AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Cassinelli, Mariaester; Lanza, Alessandro.
Tourism destination benchmarking and the assessment of tourism management performances are a crucial and challenging task in the direction of evaluating tourism sustainability and reshaping tourism activities. However, assessing tourism management efficiency per se may not provide enough information concerning long-term performances, which is what sustainability is about. Natural resources management should therefore be included in the analysis to provide a more exhaustive picture of long-run sustainable efficiency and tourism performances. Indeed, while the environmental endowment of a site is a key feature in tourism destination comparison, what really matters is its effective management. Therefore, in this paper we assess and compare tourism...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12156
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Climate Change Mitigation Strategies in Fast-Growing Countries: The Benefits of Early Action AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Tavoni, Massimo; Carraro, Carlo.
This paper builds on the assumption that OECD countries are (or will soon be) taking actions to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. These actions, however, will not be sufficient to control global warming, unless developing countries also get involved in the cooperative effort to reduce GHG emissions. This paper investigates the best short-term strategies that emerging economies can adopt in reacting to OECD countries’ mitigation effort, given the common long-term goal to prevent excessive warming without hampering economic growth. Results indicate that developing countries would incur substantial economic losses by following a myopic strategy that disregards climate in the short-run, and that their optimal investment behaviour is to anticipate the...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Energy-economy Modeling; Climate Policy; Developing Countries; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q54; Q55; Q43.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/52541
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Delayed Action and Uncertain Targets. How Much Will Climate Policy Cost? AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Carraro, Carlo; Sgobbi, Alessandra; Tavoni, Massimo.
Despite the growing concern about actual on-going climate change, there is little consensus about the scale and timing of actions needed to stabilise the concentrations of greenhouse gases. Many countries are unwilling to implement effective mitigation strategies, at least in the short-term, and no agreement on an ambitious global stabilisation target has yet been reached. It is thus likely that some, if not all countries, will delay the adoption of effective climate policies. This delay will affect the cost of future policy measures that will be required to abate an even larger amount of emissions. What additional economic cost of mitigation measures will this delay imply? At the same time, the uncertainty surrounding the global stabilisation target to be...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Uncertainty; Climate Policy; Stabilisation Costs; Delayed Action; Environmental Economics and Policy; C72; H23; Q25; Q28.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44219
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Delayed Participation of Developing Countries to Climate Agreements: Should Action in the EU and US be Postponed? AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Carraro, Carlo; Tavoni, Massimo.
This paper analyses the cost implications for climate policy in developed countries if developing countries are unwilling to adopt measures to reduce their own GHG emissions. First, we assume that a 450 CO2 (550 CO2e) ppmv stabilisation target is to be achieved and that Non Annex1 (NA1) countries decide to delay their GHG emission reductions by 30 years. What would be the cost difference between this scenario and a case in which both developed and developing countries start reducing their emissions at the same time? Then, we look at a scenario in which the timing of developing countries’ participation is uncertain and again we compute the costs of climate policy in developed and developing countries. We find that delayed participation of NA1 countries has...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Delayed Action; Climate Policy; Stabilisation Costs; Uncertain Participation; Environmental Economics and Policy; C72; H23; Q25; Q28.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44220
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Emissions Pricing to Stabilize Global Climate AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Paltsev, Sergey; Reilly, John M.; Carraro, Carlo.
In the absence of significant greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation, many analysts project that atmospheric concentrations of species identified for control in the Kyoto protocol could exceed 1000 ppm (carbon-dioxide-equivalent) by 2100 from the current levels of about 435 ppm. This could lead to global average temperature increases of between 2.5 and 6°C by the end of the century. There are risks of even greater warming given that underlying uncertainties in emissions projections and climate response are substantial. Stabilization of GHG concentrations that would have a reasonable chance of meeting temperature targets identified in international negotiations would require significant reductions in GHG emissions below “business-as-usual” levels, and indeed from...
Tipo: Working Paper Palavras-chave: Emissions Pricing; Climate Stabilization; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q54; Q58.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/119102
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Forestry and the Carbon Market Response to Stabilize Climate AgEcon
Tavoni, Massimo; Bosetti, Valentina; Sohngen, Brent.
This paper investigates the potential contribution of forestry management in meeting a CO2 stabilization policy of 550 ppmv by 2100. In order to assess the optimal response of the carbon market to forest sequestration we couple two global models. An energy-economy-climate model for the study of climate policies is linked with a detailed forestry model through an iterative procedure to provide the optimal abatement strategy. Results show that forestry is a determinant abatement option and could lead to significantly lower policy costs if included. Linking forestry management to the carbon market has the potential to delay the policy burden, and is expected to reduce the price of carbon of 40% by 2050. Biological sequestration will mostly come from avoided...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Environmental Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10263
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Global Climate Policy Architecture and Political Feasibility: Specific Formulas and Emission Targets to Attain 460 ppm CO2 Concentrations AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Frankel, Jeffrey.
Three gaps in the Kyoto Protocol most badly need to be filled: the absence of emission targets extending far into the future, the absence of participation by the United States, China, and other developing countries, and the absence of reason to think that members will abide by commitments. To be politically acceptable, any new treaty that fills these gaps must, we believe, obey certain constraints regarding country-by-country economic costs. We offer a framework of formulas that assign quantitative allocations of emissions, across countries, one budget period at a time. The two-part plan: (i) China and other developing countries accept targets at BAU in the coming budget period, the same period in which the US first agrees to cuts below BAU; and (ii)...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: International Climate Agreements; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q; Q40; Q54.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/55291
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Incentives and Stability of International Climate Coalitions: An Integrated Assessment AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Carraro, Carlo; De Cian, Enrica; Massetti, Emanuele; Tavoni, Massimo.
This paper analyses the incentives to participate in and the stability of international climate coalitions. Using the integrated assessment model WITCH, the analysis of coalitions’ profitability and stability is performed under alternative assumptions concerning the pure rate of time preference, the social welfare aggregator and the extent of climate damages. We focus on the profitability, stability, and “potential stability” of a number of coalitions which are “potentially effective” in reducing emissions. We find that only the grand coalition under a specific sets of assumptions finds it optimal to stabilise GHG concentration below 550 ppm CO2-eq. However, the grand coalition is found not to be stable, not even “potentially stable” even through an...
Tipo: Working Paper Palavras-chave: Climate Policy; Climate Coalition; Game Theory; Free Riding; Environmental Economics and Policy; C68; C72; D58; Q54.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/120048
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International Energy R&D Spillovers and the Economics of Greenhouse Gas Atmospheric Stabilization AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Carraro, Carlo; Massetti, Emanuele; Tavoni, Massimo.
It is widely recognized that technological change has the potential to reduce GHG emissions without compromising economic growth; hence, any better understanding of the process of technological innovation is likely to increase our knowledge of mitigation possibilities and costs. This paper explores how international knowledge flows affect the dynamics of the domestic R&D sector and the main economic and environmental variables. The analysis is performed using WITCH, a dynamic regional model of the world economy, in which energy technical change is endogenous. The focus is on disembodied energy R&D international spillovers. The knowledge pool from which regions draw foreign ideas differs between High Income and Low Income countries. Absorption...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Climate Policy; Energy R&D; International R&D Spillovers; Stabilization; Environmental Economics and Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; H0; H2; H3.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8217
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Light Duty Vehicle Transportation and Global Climate Policy: The Importance of Electric Drive Vehicles AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Longden, Thomas.
With a focus on establishing whether climate targets can be met under different personal transport scenarios we introduce a transport sector representing the use and profile of light domestic vehicles (LDVs) into the integrated assessment model WITCH. In doing so we develop long term projections of light domestic vehicle use and define potential synergies between innovation in the transportation sector and the energy sector. By modelling the demand for LDVs, the use of fuels, and the types of vehicles introduced we can analyse the potential impacts on the whole economy. We find that with large increases in the use of vehicles in many regions around the globe, the electrification of LDVs is important in achieving cost effective climate targets and...
Tipo: Working Paper Palavras-chave: Light Duty Vehicles; Transportation; Climate Change Policy; Electric Drive Vehicles; Research and Development; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q54; R41; O3.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/121948
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Linking Reduced Deforestation and a Global Carbon Market: Impacts on Costs, Financial Flows, and Technological Innovation AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Lubowski, Ruben N.; Golub, Alexander; Markandya, Anil.
Discussions over tropical deforestation are currently at the forefront of climate change policy negotiations at national, regional, and international levels. This paper analyzes the effects of linking Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) to a global market for greenhouse gas emission reductions. We supplement a global climate-energy-economy model with alternative cost estimates for reducing deforestation emissions in order to examine a global program for stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at 550 ppmv of CO2 equivalent. Introducing REDD reduces global forestry emissions through 2050 by 20-22% in the Brazil-only case and by 64-88% in the global REDD scenarios. At the same time, REDD lowers the total costs of the...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Carbon market; Climate change; Innovation; Mitigation; Policy costs; Offsets; Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD); Technological change; Tropical deforestation; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q23; Q24; Q42; Q52; Q54; Q55.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/52544
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Modelling Economic Impacts of Alternative International Climate Policy Architectures. A Quantitative and Comparative Assessment of Architectures for Agreement AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Carraro, Carlo; Sgobbi, Alessandra; Tavoni, Massimo.
This paper provides a quantitative comparison of the main architectures for an agreement on climate policy. Possible successors to the Kyoto protocol are assessed according to four criteria: economic efficiency; environmental effectiveness; distributional implications; and their political acceptability which is measured in terms of feasibility and enforceability. The ultimate aim is to derive useful information for designing a future agreement on climate change control.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Climate Policy; Integrated Modelling; International Agreements; Environmental Economics and Policy; C72; H23; Q25; Q28.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44535
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Optimal Energy Investment and R&D Strategies to Stabilise Greenhouse Gas Atmospheric Concentrations AgEcon
Carraro, Carlo; Bosetti, Valentina; Massetti, Emanuele; Tavoni, Massimo.
The stabilisation of GHG atmospheric concentrations at levels expected to prevent dangerous climate change has become an important, global, long-term objective. It is therefore crucial to identify a cost-effective way to achieve this objective. In this paper we use WITCH, a hybrid climate-energy-economy model, to obtain a quantitative assessment of some cost-effective strategies that stabilise CO2 concentrations at 550 or 450 ppm. In particular, this paper analyses the energy investment and R&D policies that optimally achieve these two GHG stabilisation targets (i.e. the future optimal energy mix consistent with the stabilisation of GHG atmospheric concentrations at 550 and 450 ppm). Given that the model accounts for interdependencies and spillovers...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Climate Policy; Energy R&D; Investments; Stabilisation Costs; Environmental Economics and Policy; H0; H2; H3.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7435
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Politics and Economics of Second-Best Regulation of Greenhouse Gases: The Importance of Regulatory Credibility AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Victor, David G..
Modellers have examined a wide array of ideal-world scenarios for regulation of greenhouse gases. In this ideal world, all countries limit emissions from all economic sectors; regulations are implemented by intelligent, well-informed forward-looking agents; all abatement options, such as new energy technologies and forestry offsets, are available; trade in goods, services and emission credits is free and unfettered. Here we systematically explore more plausible second-best worlds. While analysts have given inordinate attention to which countries participate in regulation—what we call “variable geometry”—which has a strikingly small impact on total world cost of carbon regulations if international trade in emission credits allows economies to...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Greenhouse Gases; Second-best Regulation; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q5; Q58.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/60663
Registros recuperados: 31
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