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A Case Study of China's Commercial Pork Value Chain AgEcon
Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Hu, Dinghuan; Fang, Cheng.
In China, with the cost of improved technology rising, surplus labor shrinking, and demand for food quality and safety increasing, it will be just a matter of time before the country’'s hog production sector will be commercialized like that of developed countries. However, even if China'’s cost of production converges to international levels, as shown in this case study, China may continue to retain some competitive advantage because of the labor-intensive nature of the marketing services involved in hog processing and meat distribution. The supply of variety meats offers the most promising market opportunity for foreign suppliers in China. The market may open further if the tariff rate for variety meats is reduced from 20% and harmonized with the pork...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Commercial; Cost structure; Imports; Pork value chain; Industrial Organization; Marketing.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18689
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A DECOMPOSITION APPROACH TO ASSESS ILUC RESULTS FROM GLOBAL MODELING EFFORTS AgEcon
Witzke, Heinz Peter; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Gay, Stephan Hubertus; Golub, Alla A.; Havlik, Petr; Msangi, Siwa; Tokgoz, Simla; Searchinger, Timothy D..
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Environmental Economics and Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/91430
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A General Conceptual Approach to Modeling the Livestock Sector: Application to the Japanese Swine-Pork Sector Model with Analysis of the "No Gate Price Policy Scenario" AgEcon
Fabiosa, Jacinto F..
This study develops a generic conceptual approach to modeling the livestock sector that provides better coverage of variables to ensure the consistency in the underlying biologics of the model and also provides consistent rules of specification. This approach is applied to modeling the swine-pork sector of Japan and then used to analyze the impact of removing Japan's gate price policy and variable levy for pork imports. The new approach departs significantly from existing models. For consistency in the biologics of the model both live animals and meat components of the sector are fully covered. The structure clearly differentiates stock and flow variables and investment and production decisions. A standard rule of specification is established that only...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Livestock sector; Partial equilibrium model; Gate price policy; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 1999 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18655
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A NEW GENERAL CONCEPTUAL APPROACH TO MODELING THE LIVESTOCK SECTOR: AN APPLICATION TO THE JAPANESE SWINE-PORK SECTOR AgEcon
Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Qi, Xiaoting.
Many livestock sector models have limited coverage of relevant variables, and are somewhat ad hoc in their choice of what should be specified as behavioral equations. This study develops a generic conceptual approach to modeling the livestock sector that provides consistent rules of specification and better coverage of variables. This approach is then applied to the swine-pork sector of Japan. The new approach departs significantly from existing models. The structure clearly differentiates stock and flow variables; only flow variables have behavioral specifications and stock variables are accounting identities; flow variables are expressed in rates rather than levels; logistic functions are used in most flow variables to automatically impose...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Livestock Production/Industries; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 1998 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20835
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A New General Conceptual Approach to Modeling the Livestock Sector: An Application to the Japanese Swine-Pork Sector AgEcon
Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Qi, Xiaoting.
Many livestock sector models have limited coverage of relevant variables, and are somewhat ad hoc in their choice of what should be specified as behavioral equations. This study develops a generic conceptual approach to modeling the livestock sector that provides consistent rules of specification and better coverage of variables. This approach is then applied to the swine-pork sector of Japan. The new approach departs significantly from existing models. The structure clearly differentiates stock and flow variables; only flow variables have behavioral specifications and stock variables are accounting identities; flow variables are expressed in rates rather than levels; logistic functions are used in most flow variables to automatically impose...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 1998 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18631
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A Policy Model for the Livestock and Poultry Sectors of Mexico AgEcon
Barrett, Chad; Fabiosa, Jacinto F..
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 1998 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18645
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A PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT OF THE BEEF SUBSECTOR IN THE PHILIPPINES AgEcon
Fabiosa, Jacinto F..
The average per capita protein consumption in the Philippines is very low, only 44.1 grams annually. This is primarily due both to the limited income of consumers and the inadequate supply of protein source products such as fish, pork, chicken, eggs, beef, and vegetables. The supply of protein source products from local sources has long been lagging behind the demand for domestic consumption. The reason for this is that expansion of the more traditional animal protein sources such as pork and chicken is severely constrained by the shortage of feed-grains and the strong competition for the use of the grains for direct human consumption. The short-run alternative adopted to solve the problem was to supplement local supply by importing meat and meat...
Tipo: Thesis or Dissertation Palavras-chave: Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 1983 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/11230
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A Review of Agricultural Policy Evolution, Agricultural Data Sources, and Food Supply and Demand Studies in Egypt AgEcon
Soliman, Ibrahim; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Bassiony, Halah.
Over the years the control of the Government of Egypt on the agricultural sector has increasingly weakened with the progressive elimination of the input subsidy, area control, price control, procurement control, and the constraints in private sector participation in processing and trade. The only remaining major government involvement is the food subsidy in some wheat products, the “baladi” bread subsidy in particular. Policy analysis studies in Egypt have been made possible because the Government of Egypt collects and publishes significant amounts of agricultural data on a regular basis. Two of the most widely used data sets are the Household Budget Survey conducted and published by the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics, and the Food...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Agricultural data; Agricultural policy; Egypt; Elasticity; Supply and demand.; Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59510
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Accession of the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland to the European Union: Impacts on Agricultural Markets AgEcon
Fuller, Frank H.; Beghin, John C.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Mohanty, Samarendu; Fang, Cheng; Kaus, Phillip J..
Using a world agricultural multimarket model, we analyze the consequences of enlargement of the European Union (EU) to include the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland for agricultural markets. We produce a market outlook through the year 2010 for two enlargement scenarios, which are based on different assumptions regarding the restrictions on grain and dairy production in the acceding countries. In both scenarios, accession of the three Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) leads to a permanent but moderate decrease in EU prices for virtually all commodities. For the three acceding CEECs, domestic prices increase dramatically. Their final consumption of agricultural products decreases in most instances, while production rises. Higher domestic...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: CAP; Economic integration; EU enlargement; Agricultural trade; Czech Republic; Hungary; Poland; Marketing.
Ano: 2000 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18388
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AGRICULTURAL MARKETS LIBERALIZATION AND THE DOHA ROUND AgEcon
Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Beghin, John C.; de Cara, Stephane; Fang, Cheng; Isik, Murat; Matthey, Holger.
Using a partial equilibrium model of world agriculture, we investigate the multilateral removal of all border taxes and farm programs and their distortion of world agricultural markets. These distortions have significant terms-of-trade effects. World trade is also significantly impacted by both types of distortions. Trade expansion is substantial for most commodities, especially dairy, meats, and vegetable oils. Net agricultural and food exporters (Brazil, Australia, and Argentina) emerge with expanded exports; whereas net importing countries with limited distortions before liberalization are penalized by higher world markets prices and reduced imports. The US gains significant export shares in livestock products and imports more dairy products....
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Doha; Agriculture; Trade liberalization; Domestic policy; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25875
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AN ANALYSIS OF THE PROPOSED DOHA ROUND MODALITIES AgEcon
Babcock, Bruce A.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Matthey, Holger; Isik, Murat; Tokgoz, Simla; Elobeid, Amani E.; Hart, Chad E.; Full, Frank.
The Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture (URAA) provided a continuing mandate for progressive reforms to liberalize world agricultural markets. A new round of negotiation was put into motion in early 2000 and later formalized in what is now called the Doha Round. The Doha Round negotiation follows the same principle laid out in the URAA, with the introduction of three reform anchors: market access, export competition, and reduction of domestic support. This paper specifies the new schedule of commitments for each member country under the proposed modalities and assesses the potential market impacts of these changes for world agricultural markets. We specifically focus on grains, oilseeds, sugar, cotton, livestock, poultry, and dairy markets.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18659
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An Econometric Decomposition of Aggregate Data: Application to the EU-15 Average Cattle Slaughter Weight AgEcon
Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Premakumar, V..
The level of aggregation of reported data has limited the proper accounting of live animals in most, if not all, livestock models, making the consistency of their underlying biologics suspect. We develop an econometric methodology to decompose a wide range of aggregate data. This method is applied to estimate a disaggregated average cattle slaughter weight for calves, cows, and other cattle from total beef production data in the European Union. The estimated model gave acceptable statistical properties and estimated slaughter weights that closely correspond to reported sample-based slaughter weights across all cattle categories. The model has a good fit, no serial correlation, and highly significant coefficients with consistent signs. Standard validation...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 1998 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18639
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AN ECONOMETRIC DECOMPOSITION OF AGGREGATE DATA: APPLICATION TO THE EU-15 AVERAGE CATTLE SLAUGHTER WEIGHT AgEcon
Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Premakumar, V..
Decomposition method was developed to disaggregate EU cattle slaughter weight. Model has good fit, no correlation, significant coefficients, consistent signs, and desirable Theil-validation statistics. Estimates for calves, cows, and other cattle are very close to reported weights. Application for New Zealand, Mexico, sheep sector, and dairy-beef calving rates were also successful.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Livestock Production/Industries; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 1998 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20830
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Analysis of the Berlin Accord Reforms of the European Union's Common Agricultural Policy AgEcon
Babcock, Bruce A.; Beghin, John C.; Mohanty, Samarendu; Fuller, Frank H.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Chaudhary, Sudhir; Kaus, Phillip J.; Fang, Cheng; Hart, Chad E.; Kovarik, Karen.
This document briefly summarizes the impacts of the European Union's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reforms on the European agricultural sector and on international agricultural trade. Objectives of the CAP reform (as stated in EU Commission documents) are: to ensure the environmental viability of European agriculture, and to protect the livelihood of European farmers.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 1999 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18282
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Assessing China’s Potential Import Demand for Distillers Dried Grain: Implications for Grain Trade AgEcon
Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Hansen, James M.; Matthey, Holger; Pan, Suwen; Tuan, Francis C..
A team of U.S. analysts visited China to assess the potential for use of distillers dried grain plus solubles (DDGS) in China’s livestock sector. They examined the economics of the use of DDGS in feeds, the policy issues surrounding the use of the product, and transportation-logistic constraints in the expansion of DDGS imports. The team collected actual and secondary data to conduct a micro-economic analysis of the impact of DDGS on feed cost, solicited official and expert opinions through interviews, and conducted site visits. They found the development of the DDGS import market in China to be very promising. The microeconomic analysis showed a clear economic incentive for feed millers and livestock producers to use DDGS in their feed ration, with a...
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: DDGS; Distillers grain; Feed demand; Livestock sector; Optimal feed ration.; Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis; International Relations/Trade; Marketing.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/55553
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ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF THE EXCHANGE RATE AND ITS VOLATILITY ON CANADIAN PORK AND LIVE SWINE EXPORTS TO THE UNITED STATES AND JAPAN AgEcon
Fabiosa, Jacinto F..
A model of a representative Canadian pork exporter is developed to examine the impacts of the exchange rate and its volatility on pork and live swine exports. The pork export supply equation is expressed as a function of the expected level of real exchange rate and a time-varying variance of real exchange rate. An AR(p) model is used to represent the expected real exchange rate, and a GARCH(p, q) model is used to generate the time-varying variance. The same model is used to examine the sensitivity of pork exports to Japan from Canada, the United States, and Denmark. The parameters of all pork and live swine export equations have theoretically consistent signs and many are significant. That is, the domestic price in the exporting country has a negative...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18624
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Biofuels: Potential Production Capacity, Effects on Grain and Livestock Sectors, and Implications for Food Prices and Consumers AgEcon
Hayes, Dermot J.; Babcock, Bruce A.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Tokgoz, Simla; Elobeid, Amani E.; Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward); Dong, Fengxia; Hart, Chad E.; Chavez, Eddie C.; Pan, Suwen; Carriquiry, Miguel A.; Dumortier, Jerome.
We examined four evolution paths of the biofuel sector using a partial equilibrium world agricultural sector model in CARD that includes the new RFS in the 2007 EISA, a two-way relationship between fossil energy and biofuel markets, and a new trend toward corn oil extraction in ethanol plants. At one extreme, one scenario eliminates all support to the biofuel sector when the energy price is low, while the other extreme assumes no distribution bottleneck in ethanol demand growth when the energy price is high. The third scenario considers a pure market force driving ethanol demand growth because of the high energy price, while the last is a policy-induced shock with removal of the biofuel tax credit when the energy price is high. Standard results hold where...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Biofuel; EISA; Ethanol; Tax credit; World agricultural sector model; Agribusiness; Consumer/Household Economics; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; International Relations/Trade; Livestock Production/Industries; Political Economy; Production Economics; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q13; Q18; Q38.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53093
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Biofuels: Potential Production Capacity, Effects on Grain and Livestock Sectors, and Implications for Food Prices and Consumers AgEcon
Hayes, Dermot J.; Babcock, Bruce A.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Tokgoz, Simla; Elobeid, Amani E.; Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward); Dong, Fengxia; Hart, Chad E.; Chavez, Eddie C.; Pan, Suwen; Carriquiry, Miguel A.; Dumortier, Jerome.
We examine four scenarios for the evolution of the biofuel sector using a partial equilibrium model of the world agricultural sector. The model includes the new Renewable Fuels Standard in the 2007 energy act, the two-way relationship between fossil energy and biofuel markets, and a new trend toward corn oil extraction in ethanol plants. At one extreme, one scenario eliminates all support to the biofuel sector when the energy price is low, while the other extreme assumes no distribution bottleneck in ethanol demand growth when the energy price is high. Of the remaining two scenarios, one considers a pure market force driving ethanol demand growth because of the high energy price while the other is a policy-induced shock with removal of the biofuel tax...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Biofuels; EISA; Ethanol; Tax credit; World agricultural sector model.; Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48597
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BRAZIL: THE FUTURE OF MODERN AGRICULTURE? AgEcon
Matthey, Holger; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Fuller, Frank H..
In an attempt to understand better Brazil'’s future role in agricultural markets, the authors of this report traveled to Brazil on a fact-finding mission in September 2003. The goal was to get a first-hand impression of Brazil’'s agricultural sector and especially its future potential. In this report we provide a general description of crop and livestock production, government policies, public and private cooperation, and transportation and biotechnology issues. The most striking observations made during our time in Brazil was the universal sense of optimism expressed by producers, government officials, agronomists, and market analysts about the future growth of Brazilian agricultural production. Does that mean Brazil, as one person suggested, is the...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Agricultural development; Agricultural policy; Biotechnology; Infrastructure; Brazil; Production; Agricultural and Food Policy; International Development; Production Economics; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18705
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Challenges in Modeling the Effects of Trade Agreements on the Agricultural Sector AgEcon
Westhoff, Patrick C.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Beghin, John C.; Meyers, William H..
Major issues and challenges encountered in modeling and analyzing agricultural and trade policy reforms are reviewed. We focus on modeling approach and pay special attention to the type and scope of models, calibration of a realistic baseline scenario, representation of the reform agreement, use of extramodel information, choice of metrics to measure reform impacts, and emerging issues in policy modeling. Existing solutions and unresolved issues are examined. We stress the complementarity of various modeling approaches in assessing policy reforms and the importance of helping users understand the limitations of the chosen approach.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Agricultural policy; Economic modeling; Trade agreements; Q17; Q18; F13.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43385
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