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A Free Trade between Ukraine and the European Union: Challenges and Opportunities for Agricultural Markets AgEcon
Nekhay, Olexandr; Gay, Stephan Hubertus; Fellmann, Thomas.
The negotiations on a deep and comprehensive free trade agreement (FTA) between Ukraine and the EU are currently in process. Such a FTA can be expected to imply opportunities as well as challenges for agricultural markets. This paper provides a model-based quantitative assessment of the potential impacts of a FTA on agricultural commodity markets in the EU and Ukraine. For the quantitative analysis the dynamic, partial equilibrium model AGLINK-COSIMO has been adapted and applied. The modules for the EU and Ukraine have been extracted from the global model and prepared to run together. Thus, the focus is on the bilateral trade positions and not on the effect on other countries. The simulation of a FTA between the EU and Ukraine was done through the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Ukraine; EU; Free Trade Agreement (FTA); Agricultural Markets; AGLINK-COSIMO; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114616
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EU ENLARGEMENT TO TURKEY: POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON AGRICULTURAL MARKETS AND HOW THEY ARE SHAPED BY CHANGES IN MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS AgEcon
Fellmann, Thomas; van Leeuwen, Myrna; Salamon, Petra.
The potential accession of Turkey to the EU, and the related adoption of the CAP by Turkey, is expected to influence agricultural markets in both the EU and Turkey. The extent of the accession impacts depends on the one hand on the way the CAP will be implemented in Turkey, while on the other hand impacts are expected to be also shaped by macroeconomic conditions (like exchange rates, GDP growth and inflation levels). In this paper we provide a comprehensive model-based assessment of the potential impacts on agricultural markets of a Turkish accession to the EU. We first assess the impacts under the assumption of standard macroeconomic projections, then we analyse how a different TL/Euro exchange rate, a doubling of the Turkish inflation rate or a doubling...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Turkey; EU enlargement; Agricultural markets; Macro economy; AGMEMOD Zusammenfassung; Türkei; EU Erweiterung; Agrarmärkte; Makroökonomie; AGMEMOD; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114507
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Impact of Russia and Ukraine on the international price formation and the EU markets - A Model based analysis AgEcon
Banse, Martin; Salamon, Petra; Ledebur, Oliver von; van Leeuwen, Myrna; Bouma, Foppe; Salputra, Guna; Fellmann, Thomas; Nekhay, Olexandr.
This paper examines the effect of the future developments of Russian and Ukrainian agricultural sectors and their impact on the world market prices for arable crops. Employed in the study is AGMEMOD, a partial equilibrium economic model of EU agriculture at the Member State level that has been extended by Russia and Ukraine to gain quantitative insights. Vital for the project has also been the integration of an endogenous world market price module including a stylized Rest of the World (ROW) model. In Russia and Ukraine, there is a strong focus on plant production in general and on grain based animal production; Russia and Ukraine are mostly net-exports of those products. Under the baseline, in Russia prices for crops and oilseeds are below the world...
Tipo: Presentation Palavras-chave: Partial equilibrium model; Price formation; Russia; Ukraine; Agricultural and Food Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122536
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Shocks in economic growth = shocking effects on agricultural markets? AgEcon
Kavallari, Aikaterini; Fellmann, Thomas; Gay, Stephan Hubertus.
Projections on the development of agricultural commodity markets underlie a given set of assumptions on economic growth. However, recent economic and financial crisis, as well as signs of quicker recovery in emerging economies, increase uncertainty in the forecasts of macroeconomic developments. This paper analyses the effects of different economic growth scenarios on agricultural commodity markets. In particular we assess the potential impacts of a faster economic growth in emerging economies on the one hand and of a replication of the recent economic downturn on the other hand. The empirical analysis uses the AGLINKCOSIMO model and builds upon the recently published European agricultural outlook of the EU Commission. The simulation results demonstrate...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Economic growth; Agricultural commodity markets; AGLINK-COSIMO; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114766
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Systematic Policy Decisions on Direct Income Payments in Agricultural Policies AgEcon
Fellmann, Thomas; Mollers, Judith.
Direct income payments (DIP) are in the centre of the discussion in the ongoing political debate whether agricultural policy objectives can be pursued in an economically more efficient and less distorting way. This paper discusses under which circumstances DIP are an appropriate and efficient measure to address the objectives of agricultural policies. It identifies and examines the characteristics that DIP should have in the context of different objectives. If governments want to meet their policy objectives by the use of DIP efficiently, a precise definition of the objective is crucial. An optimal policy design achieves a specific objective while keeping the impact on economic distortions low and ensuring efficiency in the allocation of resources. The...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Direct income payments; Agricultural policy; Policy objectives; Decision tree; Agricultural and Food Policy; Q18; E6; H5.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25684
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