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| Registros recuperados: 70 | |
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| Pennings, Joost M.E.; Garcia, Philip; Irwin, Scott H.. |
| Heterogeneity, i.e., the notion that individuals respond differently to economic stimuli, can have profound consequences for the interpretation of behavior and the formulation of agricultural policy. This paper compares and evaluates three grouping techniques that can be used to account for heterogeneity in financial behavior. Two are well established: company-type grouping and cluster analysis. A third, the generalized mixture regression model, has recently been developed and is worth considering as market participants are grouped such that their response to the determinants of economic behavior is similar. We evaluate the grouping methods in a hedging framework by assessing their ability to reflect relationships consistent with theory. The empirical... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Economic behavior; Heterogeneity; Hedging; Methods; Risk and Uncertainty; A10; B40; C1; D0; G0; L2; Q13. |
| Ano: 2011 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114787 |
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| Egelkraut, Thorsten M.; Garcia, Philip; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.. |
| Using 1971-2000 data, we examine the accuracy of corn and soybean production forecasts provided by the USDA and two private agencies. All agencies improved their forecasts as the harvest progressed, and forecast errors were highly correlated and unbiased. The relative forecast accuracy of the agencies varied by crop and month. For corn, USDA’s forecasts ranked as most accurate of the three agencies in all periods except for august during the recent period and improved most markedly as harvest progressed. For soybeans, forecast errors were very similar, with the private agencies ranking as most accurate for August and September and making largest relative improvements for August during the recent period. The USDA forecasts were dominant for October and... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Corn; Private agencies; Production forecasts; Soybeans; USDA; Q11; Q13; C82; Q18. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37835 |
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| Egelkraut, Thorsten M.; Garcia, Philip; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.. |
| Using 1971-2000 data, we examine the accuracy of corn and soybean production forecasts provided by the USDA and two private services. All agencies improved their forecasts as the harvest progressed, and forecast errors across the agencies were highly correlated. Relative accuracy varied by crop and month. In corn, USDA 's forecasts ranked as most accurate in all periods except in August during recent times, and improved more markedly as harvest progressed. In soybeans, forecast errors were very similar with the private agencies ranking as most accurate in August and September and making largest relative improvements in August during recent times. The USDA provided the most accurate October and November forecasts. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 2002 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19068 |
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| Frank, Julieta; Garcia, Philip. |
| Understanding the determinants of liquidity costs in agricultural futures markets is hampered by a need to use proxies for the bid-ask spread which are often biased, and by a failure to account for a jointly determined micro-market structure. We estimate liquidity costs and its determinants for the live cattle and hog futures markets using alternative liquidity cost estimators, intraday prices and micro-market information. Volume and volatility are simultaneously determined and significantly related to the bid-ask spread. Daily volume is negatively related to the spread while volatility and volume per transaction display positive relationships. Electronic trading has a significant competitive effect on liquidity costs, particularly in the live cattle... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Bayesian estimation; Bid-ask spread determinants; Liquidity cost; Livestock Production/Industries; Marketing. |
| Ano: 2009 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49575 |
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| Dixon, Bruce L.; Garcia, Philip; Adams, Richard M.; Mjelde, James W.. |
| Duality methods utilizing a profit function framework are employed to estimate the output elasticity of ambient ozone levels on cash grain farms in Illinois. While duality methods have been recommended as a cure to many of the statistical problems of direct estimation of production functions, multicollinearity may still be a problem. A method for utilizing stochastic information on parameters of a seemingly unrelated system of equations, which is implied by profit function estimation, is developed and applied to measuring the impact of ozone. Such an approach may be necessary in measuring other environmental effects because of a lack of regressor variability. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy. |
| Ano: 1984 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32140 |
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| Joseph, Kishore; Irwin, Scott H.; Garcia, Philip. |
| We investigate storage in the presence of backwardation and the existence of the Working curve for CBOT corn, soybeans, and wheat markets and the KCBOT wheat market using recent data, 1990-2010. Incorporating Telser’s concept of the cost of carry, we employ two measures of the spread—the percent of full carry for futures-futures and futures-spot (maximum) spreads which are adjusted for interest and storage rates. Both spreads are calculated relative to the next nearby futures contract and are matched with closest weekly deliverable stock information available at the delivery locations for the contracts. Our findings indicate that storage at a loss is pervasive both in terms of the percent of observations that exhibited storage at a loss, and the magnitude... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Storage; Backwardation; CBOT; KCBOT; Corn; Soybean; Wheat.; Agribusiness; Demand and Price Analysis. |
| Ano: 2011 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103888 |
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| Pennings, Joost M.E.; Isengildina, Olga; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.; Garcia, Philip; Frank, Julieta; Kuiper, W. Erno. |
| Producers have a wide variety of risk management instruments available. How do producers make a choice of risk management instruments? Using the recently developed choice bracketing framework, we examine what risk management strategies producers use and identify the factors that drive their risk management decisions. Our results identify that producers use a wide variety of combinations of risk management instruments and that they bracket their choices into sets of alternative risk management instruments. Using multinomial logit models to estimate the choice process provides information about the factors that influence producers' decision making. The results show that broad bracketing producers use different risk management instruments than narrow... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19550 |
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| Franken, Jason R.V.; Garcia, Philip; Irwin, Scott H.. |
| The storage at a loss paradox - inventories despite an inadequate spot-futures price spread to cover storage costs - is an unresolved issue of long-standing interest to economists. Alternative explanations include risk premiums for futures market speculators, convenience yields from holding inventories, and mismeasurement/aggregation of data. Statistical analyses of regional- and elevator-level data suggest that aggregation can impact results, and that soybean price behavior is generally consistent with inter-temporal arbitrage conditions, while corn price behavior points to convenience yields at longer horizons. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21319 |
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| Mattos, Fabio; Garcia, Philip; Pennings, Joost M.E.. |
| This paper investigates the dynamics of sequential decision-making in agricultural futures and options markets. Analysis of trading records of 12 traders identified considerable heterogeneity in individual dynamic trading behavior. Using risk measures derived from the deltas and vegas of trader’s portfolios, we find nearly half the traders behavior is consistent with a house-money effect and the other half with loss aversion. These findings correspond closely to expected behavior inferred from elicited utility and probability weighting functions. The results call into question more aggregate findings that discount probability weighting to develop risk measures which support the notion of more uniform, less heterogeneous, behavior. Understanding behavior in... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Loss aversion; House-money effect; Futures; Options; Agricultural Finance. |
| Ano: 2008 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37605 |
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| Neff, David L.; Garcia, Philip; Hornbaker, Robert H.. |
| Recent investigations have provided mixed assessments of farm firm efficiency. This analysis examined the efficiency of a homogeneous sample of central Illinois grain farms over a six-year period. A best-practice frontier was constructed using the ray-homothetic function, which allowed optimal farm output to vary with factor intensity. Efficiency measures were found to increase with temporal aggregation. The ray-homothetic approach was found to attribute high scale inefficiencies to larger sample farms in cases where the factor shares did not vary appreciably across farms. The findings suggest that policy recommendations regarding farm efficiency must be made with care. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness. |
| Ano: 1991 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30053 |
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| Garcia, Philip; Nelson, Carl H.. |
| Graduate students frequently have difficulty defining, developing, and resolving research problems in a manner consistent with the agricultural economics community. Here, we report on a seminar designed to assist graduate students integrate subject matter courses into independent research proposals through participation in professional dialogue. Professional dialogue involves developing arguments to explain and resolve questions where the explanations are supported by warranted evidence and appropriately qualified. The premise of the seminar is that more active problem solvers are developed using professional dialogue to sharpen critical thinking and writing skills. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21894 |
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| Dixon, Bruce L.; Hollinger, Steven E.; Garcia, Philip; Tirupattur, Viswanath. |
| Projections of the impacts of climate change on agriculture require flexible and accurate yield response models. Typically, estimated yield response models have used fixed calendar intervals to measure weather variables and omitted observations on solar radiation, an essential determinant of crop yield. A corn yield response model for Illinois crop reporting districts is estimated using field data. Weather variables are time to crop growth stages to allow use of the model if climate change shifts dates of the crop growing season. Solar radiation is included. Results show this model is superior to conventionally specified models in explaining yield variation in Illinois corn. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 1994 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31229 |
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| Frank, Julieta; Garcia, Philip. |
| Estimation of liquidity costs in futures markets is challenging because bid-ask spreads are usually not observed. Several estimators of liquidity costs exist that use transaction data, but there is little agreement on their relative accuracy and usefulness, and their performance has been questioned. We use a Bayesian method proposed by Hasbrouck which possesses conceptually desirable properties to estimate liquidity costs of six agricultural future contracts. The method builds on Roll's model and uses Markov Chain Monte Carlo estimation. Our Bayesian estimates are lower than more traditional estimates and as anticipated decrease even more when more realistic assumptions such as discreteness are incorporated. The findings demonstrate the need for further... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21331 |
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| Registros recuperados: 70 | |
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