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Registros recuperados: 13
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A Dynamic Risk Optimization Model for Evaluating Profitable and Feasible Water Management Plans AgEcon
Grove, Bennie; Oosthuizen, L.K.; Backeberg, G.R..
Currently the South African government is advocating the cultivation of high valued crops and more efficient use of available water resources through the adoption o f more efficient irrigation technology and irrigation scheduling. A requirement of the National Water Act (Act 36 of 1998) is the compilation of water management plans. The main objective of this paper is to develop a multiperiod mathematical risk programming model able of assisting water user associations with the compilation of water management plans that are both profitable and feasible. Special care was taken to represent canal capacities and irrigation system application rates in the model. Risk simulation procedures are used to generate an appropriately correlated inter- and...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Dynamic Linear Programming; Risk; Irrigation; Feasibility; South Africa; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; C6; Q15; Q12.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25554
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A Stochastic Budgeting Analysis of Three Alternative Scenarios to Convert from Beef-Cattle Farming to Game Ranching AgEcon
Grove, Bennie; Taljaard, Pieter R.; Cloete, Philip C..
The main objective of this paper is to evaluate the profitability and financial feasibility of three alternative scenarios to convert from beef-cattle farming to game ranching. The analyses acknowledge the importance of quantifying the probability of failure or success when making investment decisions. Risk is incorporated into a standard net present value analysis using risk simulation. De-trended historical auction prices of live game and on-the-hoof prices of weaner cattle were used to quantify price variability. The stochastic net present value analyses indicate that game ranching is more profitable than cattle farming. Although an investment in a limited number of common game species is financially feasible, the cash flow analysis indicates a...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Game ranching; Profitability; Financial feasibility; Risk simulation; Agricultural Finance; Farm Management; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7048
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Analysis of the Governance Structure used by Eksteenskull Raisin Producers: Is there a need for more Vertical Coordination? AgEcon
Jordaan, Henry; Grove, Bennie.
Eksteenskuil raisin producers are a group of emerging raisin producers who are successfully participating in a sophisticated value chain. They collectively export their raisins through the fairtrade initiative. Emerging farmers typically face high levels of transaction cost. The high levels of transaction cost in combination with the changing nature of the marketing environment, suggest that the different modes with which transactions can be coordinated need to be assessed in order to identify that mode that would minimise the transaction cost. The aim of this paper is to investigate the governance structures that are employed by Eksteenskuil raisin producers in order to determine whether an alternative may not contribute to reducing transaction costs...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/96645
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Factors Affecting Maize Producers Adoption of Forward Pricing in Price Risk Management: The Case of Vaalharts AgEcon
Jordaan, Henry; Grove, Bennie.
Logistic regression is employed to analyse the factors which influence the decision of whether or not the respondent used forward pricing methods during the 2004/05 maize production season. Forward pricing methods include cash forward contracting and hedging with futures contracts and/or options, through the South African Futures Exchange (SAFEX). Based on the results, the use of forward pricing is associated with lower levels of risk aversion and higher levels of human capital. Factor analysis is employed to reduce the dimensionality of the personal reasons which help to interpret the underlying, common factor of the personal reasons why farmers are reluctant to use forward pricing methods. Three factors were extracted and were labelled “Lack of...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Forward pricing; Logit; Factor analysis; Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7049
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Factors affecting the use of forward pricing methods in price risk management with special reference to the influence of risk aversion AgEcon
Jordaan, Henry; Grove, Bennie.
Risk aversion is the primary reason for farmers to use forward pricing methods to hedge against price risk. Previous international research on farmers’ forward pricing behaviour found inconsistent results with respect to the relationship between risk aversion and the use of forward pricing methods. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression is used in this research to investigate the relationship between the proportion of maize Vaalharts maize producers are willing to forward price and risk aversion. The quantity decision is modelled conditional on the adoption decision to ensure that the modelling procedure does not force the same variables to influence the two decisions in the same way. Regression results showed that more risk averse farmers are forward...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Forward pricing; Risk aversion; Farm characteristics; Linear regression; Crop Production/Industries; Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/5970
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IMPACT OF CAPITAL ON THE GROWTH PROCESS OF A SUGARCANE FARM IN MPUMALANGA AgEcon
Haile, B.O.; Grove, Bennie; Oosthuizen, L.K..
The research was conducted for a representative 50 ha farm in the Onderberg region in Mpumalanga province, where farmers use a combination of centre-pivot, drip, and dragline systems of different sizes to grow sugarcane. The main intention was to establish a multi-period linear programming model capable of economically evaluating a farm expansion decision making process for farmers faced with investment decisions in alternative irrigation systems, taking in to account the available initial capital of the farm. A linear programming (LP) model was used to assign a mainline for a total of twelve irrigation system combinations based on the assumption that the farmer wishes to start with a 30 ha centre-pivot investment. Generalized Algebraic Modelling System...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Land Economics/Use; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19081
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Impact of capital on the growth process of a sugarcane farm in Mpumalanga AgEcon
Haile, B.O.; Grove, Bennie; Oosthuizen, L.K..
The research was conducted for a representative 50 ha farm in the Onderberg region in Mpumalanga province, where farmers use a combination of centre-pivot, drip, and dragline systems of different sizes to grow sugarcane. The main intention was to establish a multi-period linear programming model capable of economically evaluating a farm's expansion decision-making process for farmers faced with investment decisions in alternative irrigation systems, taking into account the available initial capital of the farm. A linear programming (LP) model was used to assign a mainline for a total of twelve irrigation system combinations based on the assumption that the farmer wishes to start with a 30 ha centre-pivot investment. The Generalized Algebraic Modelling...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31705
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Measuring the Price Volatility of Certain Field Crops in South Africa using the ARCH/GARCH Approach AgEcon
Jordaan, Henry; Grove, Bennie; Jooste, Andre; Alemu, A.G..
The conditional volatility in the daily spot prices of the crops traded on the South African Futures Exchange (yellow maize, white maize, wheat, sunflower seed and soybeans) is determined. The volatility in the prices of white maize, yellow maize and sunflower seed have been found to vary over time, suggesting the use of the GARCH approach in these cases. Using the GARCH approach, the conditional standard deviation is the measure of volatility, and distinguishes between the predictable and unpredictable elements in the price process. This leaves only the stochastic component and is hence a more accurate measure of the actual risk associated with the price of the crop. The volatility in the prices of wheat and soybeans was found to be constant over...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Price volatility; Field crops; SAFEX; Time series analysis; ARCH/GARCH; Demand and Price Analysis.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8013
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’N EKONOMIESE EVALUERING VAN TEKORTBESPROEIING EN VERHOOGDE WATERTOEDIENINGSDOELTREFFENDHEID OP LANDBOUWATERGEBRUIK AgEcon
Grove, Bennie; Oosthuizen, L.K..
Deficit irrigation and increasing irrigation application efficiency were analysed as water-utilisation strategies through chance-constrained linear programming (CCLP) to establish whether these strategies were economically advantageous and water conserving. Deficit irrigation was modelled through scaling functions in the CCLP model, and potential return flow was calculated from optimal water application efficiencies. Results showed that increasing water application efficiency may be economically beneficial; however, the illusion might be created that water was conserved, while potential return flow was reduced. Deficit irrigation conserves water because water consumption decreases more than potential return flow. Deficit irrigation was economically...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 1997 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54716
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QUANTIFYING ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL TRADE-OFFS OF INSTREAM FLOW REQUIREMENTS: A COMPARISON BETWEEN STEWART-HAGAN AND STEWART CROP YIELD RELATIONSHIPS AgEcon
Grove, Bennie; Oosthuizen, L.K..
Chance constrained mathematical programming was used to compare the effects of two different crop yield relationships on the economic cost to irrigation farmers while maintaining an instream flow requirement. Results showed that the Stewart-Hagan programming model underestimated the economic cost and overestimated potential return flows. Water policies based on this model will lead to the implementation of socially unacceptable water allocation policies that may even apply more pressure on stream flows. Meaningful water policies could only be advanced by a thorough understanding of the economic and hydrological consequences of alternative water allocation policies through the integration of economic and hydrological models at catchment level.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy.
Ano: 1998 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54890
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STOCHASTIC EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS OF ALTERNATIVE BASIC MAIZE MARKETING STRATEGIES AgEcon
Strydom, D.B.; Grove, Bennie; Kruger, Y.; Willemse, B.J..
The use of modern marketing strategies to minimize risk exposure is not a widely adopted practice under maize producers. The producers tend to use high risk strategies which include the selling of the crop on the cash market after harvested; while the current market requires innovative strategies including the use of Futures and Options as traded on SAFEX. However, due to a lack of interest and knowledge of producers understanding of modern, complicated strategies the study illustrates by using a SERF and CDF that the use of three basic strategies namely a Put-, Twelve-segment-, Three-segment- can be more rewarding. These strategies can be adopted by farmers without an in-depth understanding of the market and market-signals. The results obtained from the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Marketing strategies; Futures; Options; SERF; Crop Production/Industries; Marketing.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/96812
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Stochastic efficiency analysis of alternative water conservation strategies AgEcon
Grove, Bennie; Nel, F.; Maluleke, H.H..
Stochastic efficiency with respect to an exponential utility function was used to determine utility-efficient water-conserving irrigation schedules for wheat and maize based on certainty equivalents. Total gross margin risk resulting from production risk of alternative deficit irrigation practices was quantified using an irrigation simulation model and stochastic budgeting procedures. Results showed increasing production variability with increasing levels of deficit irrigation, especially when rainfall has significant potential to contribute to the production process. Risk-averse decision makers are more willingly to adopt deficit irrigation schedules for maize due to increased effective rainfall. The conclusion is that the potential to use rainfall more...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31737
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Stochastic efficiency optimisation of alternative agricultural water use strategies AgEcon
Grove, Bennie.
Mathematical programming was used to optimise utility efficient deficit irrigation schedules for maize in Vaalharts, based on certainty equivalence assuming an exponential utility function. Total gross margin risk resulting from production risk of alternative deficit irrigation practices was quantified using an irrigation simulation model and stochastic budgeting procedures. Results showed that the portfolio of irrigation schedules for a risk averse farmer may include schedules with high production risk, due to the interaction of resource use between alternatives when water is limited. Owing to the difficulty of implementing the best portfolio of irrigation schedules, the optimised schedules may best be used to benchmark the efficiency of second best...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10136
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