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How Overconfident are Current Projections of Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide Emissions? AgEcon
Keller, Klaus; Miltich, Louise I.; Robinson, Alexander; Tol, Richard S.J..
Analyzing the risks of anthropogenic climate change requires sound probabilistic projections of CO2 emissions. Previous projections have broken important new ground, but many rely on out-of-range projections, are limited to the 21st century, or provide only implicit probabilistic information. Here we take a step towards resolving these problems by assimilating globally aggregated observations of population size, economic output, and CO2 emissions over the last three centuries into a simple economic model. We use this model to derive probabilistic projections of business-as-usual CO2 emissions to the year 2150. We demonstrate how the common practice to limit the calibration timescale to decades can result in biased and overconfident projections. The range...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Carbon Dioxide; Emissions; Scenarios; Data Assimilation; Markov Chain Monte Carlo; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q540.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9321
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