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INCLUDING RISK IN ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS:A STOCHASTIC SIMULATION MODEL FOR BLUEBERRY INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN CHILE Rev. Bras. Frutic.
LOBOS,GERMÁN; MORA,MARCOS; SAENS,RODRIGO; MUÑOZ,TRISTÁN; SCHNETTLER,BERTA.
ABSTRACT The traditional method of net present value (NPV) to analyze the economic profitability of an investment (based on a deterministic approach) does not adequately represent the implicit risk associated with different but correlated input variables. Using a stochastic simulation approach for evaluating the profitability of blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L.) production in Chile, the objective of this study is to illustrate the complexity of including risk in economic feasibility analysis when the project is subject to several but correlated risks. The results of the simulation analysis suggest that the non-inclusion of the intratemporal correlation between input variables underestimate the risk associated with investment decisions. The...
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article Palavras-chave: Random values; Value at risk; Probabilistic forecasts.
Ano: 2015 URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0100-29452015000400870
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