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Registros recuperados: 16
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A Numerical Analysis of Optimal Extraction and Trade of Oil under Climate Policy AgEcon
Massetti, Emanuele; Sferra, Fabio.
We introduce endogenous investments for increasing conventional and non-conventional oil extraction capacity in the integrated assessment model WITCH. The international price of oil emerges as the Nash equilibrium of a non-cooperative game. When carbon emissions are not constrained, oil is used throughout the century, with unconventional oil taking over conventional oil from mid-century onward. When carbon emissions are constrained, oil consumption drops dramatically and the oil price is lower than in the BaU. Unconventional oil is not extracted. Regional imbalances in the distribution of stabilisation costs are magnified and the oil-exporting countries bear, on average, costs three times larger than in previous estimates.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Climate Policy; Integrated Assessment; Oil Production; Oil Revenues; Oil Trade; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; E17; F17; Q32; Q43; Q54.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/96495
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A Tale of Two Countries: Emissions Scenarios for China and India AgEcon
Massetti, Emanuele.
The aim of the paper is to present evidence that China and India are, and will remain, two very different actors in international negotiations to control global warming. We base our conclusions on historical data and on scenarios until 2050. The Business-as-Usual scenario (BaU) is compared to four Emissions Tax scenarios to draw insights on major transformations in energy use and in energy supply and to assess the possible contribution of China and India to a future international climate architecture. We study whether or not the Copenhagen intensity targets require more action than the BaU scenario and we assess whether the emissions reductions induced by the four tax scenarios are compatible with the G8 and MEF pledge to reduce global emissions by 50% in...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Climate Change; China; India; Energy Efficiency; Energy and Development; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q32; Q43; Q54; Q43; O53; P52.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/101378
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Abatement Cost Uncertainty and Policy Instrument Selection under a Stringent Climate Policy. A Dynamic Analysis AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Golub, Alexander; Markandya, Anil; Massetti, Emanuele; Tavoni, Massimo.
This paper investigates the relative economic and environmental outcomes of price versus quantity mechanisms to control GHG emissions when abatement costs are uncertain. In particular, we evaluate the impacts on policy costs, CO2 emissions and energy R&D for a stringent mitigation target of 550 ppmv CO2 equivalent (i.e. 450 for CO2 only) concentrations. The analysis is performed in an optimal growth framework via Monte Carlo simulations of the integrated assessment model WITCH (World Induced Technical Change Hybrid). Results indicate that the price instrument stochastically dominates the quantity instrument when a stringent stabilization policy is in place.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Abatement Costs; Climate Policy; Environmental Economics and Policy; H2; C6; Q5.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6383
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Banking Permits: Economic Efficiency and Distributional Effects AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Carraro, Carlo; Massetti, Emanuele.
Most analyses of the Kyoto flexibility mechanisms focus on the cost effectiveness of “where” flexibility (e.g. by showing that mitigation costs are lower in a global permit market than in regional markets or in permit markets confined to Annex 1 countries). Less attention has been devoted to “when” flexibility, i.e. to the benefits of allowing emission permit traders to bank their permits for future use. In the model presented in this paper, banking of carbon allowances in a global permit market is fully endogenised, i.e. agents may decide to bank permits by taking into account their present and future needs and the present and future decisions of all the other agents. It is therefore possible to identify under what conditions traders find it optimal to...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Emission Trading; Banking; Environmental Economics and Policy; International Relations/Trade; C72; H23; Q25; Q28.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6362
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Beyond Copenhagen: A Realistic Climate Policy in a Fragmented World AgEcon
Carraro, Carlo; Massetti, Emanuele.
We propose a realistic approach to climate policy based on the Copenhagen Agreement to reduce Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) emissions. We assess by how much the non-binding, although official, commitments to reduce emissions made in Copenhagen will affect the level of world GHGs emissions in 2020. Our estimates are based on official communications to the UNFCCC, on historic data and on the Business-as-Usual scenario of the WITCH model. We are not interested in estimating the gap between the expected level of emissions and what would be needed to achieve the 2°C target. Nor do we attempt to calculate the 2100 temperature level implied by the Copenhagen pledges. We believe these two exercises are subject to high uncertainty and would not improve the current state...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Kyoto Protocol; International Climate Agreements; Climate Policy; Clean Development Mechanism; Environmental Economics and Policy; F5; Q01; Q54; Q58.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98094
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Energy and Climate Change in China AgEcon
Carraro, Carlo; Massetti, Emanuele.
The paper examines future energy and emissions scenarios in China, presenting historical data and scenarios generated using the Integrated Assessment Model WITCH. A Business-as-Usual scenario is compared with four scenarios in which Greenhouse Gases emissions are taxed, at different levels. Key insights are provided to evaluate the Chinese pledge to reduce the emissions intensity of Gross Domestic Product by 40/45 percent in 2020 contained in the Copenhagen Accord. Marginal and total abatement costs are discussed using the OECD economies as a term of comparison. Cost estimates for different emissions reduction targets are used to assess the political feasibility of the 50 percent global reduction target set by the G8 and Major Economies Forum in July 2009.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Climate Change; China; Energy Efficiency; Energy and Development; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q4.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/101294
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Estimating Ricardian Models With Panel Data AgEcon
Massetti, Emanuele; Mendelsohn, Robert.
Many nonmarket valuation models, such as the Ricardian model, have been estimated using cross sectional methods with a single year of data. Although multiple years of data should increase the robustness of such methods, repeated cross sections suggest the results are not stable. We argue that repeated cross sections do not properly specify the model. Panel methods that correctly specify the Ricardian model are stable over time. The results suggest that many cross sectional methods including hedonic studies and travel cost studies could be enhanced using panel data.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Climate Change; Impacts; Agriculture; Hedonic Models; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q1; Q12; Q51; Q54.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/115727
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How Does Climate Policy Affect Technical Change? An Analysis of the Direction and Pace of Technical Progress in a Climate-Economy Model AgEcon
Carraro, Carlo; Massetti, Emanuele; Nicita, Lea.
This paper analyses whether and how a climate policy designed to stabilize greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is likely to change the direction and pace of technical progress. The analysis is performed using an upgraded version of WITCH, a dynamic integrated regional model of the world economy. In this version, a non-energy R&D Sector, which enhances the productivity of the capital-labor aggregate, has been added to the energy R&D sector included in the original WITCH model. We find that, as a consequence of climate policy, R&D is re-directed towards energy knowledge. Nonetheless, total R&D investments decrease, due to a more than proportional contraction of non-energy R&D. Indeed, when non-energy and energy inputs are weakly...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Technical Change; Climate Policy; Stabilization Cost; R&D Investments; Environmental Economics and Policy; C72; H23; Q25; Q28.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/50357
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Incentives and Stability of International Climate Coalitions: An Integrated Assessment AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Carraro, Carlo; De Cian, Enrica; Massetti, Emanuele; Tavoni, Massimo.
This paper analyses the incentives to participate in and the stability of international climate coalitions. Using the integrated assessment model WITCH, the analysis of coalitions’ profitability and stability is performed under alternative assumptions concerning the pure rate of time preference, the social welfare aggregator and the extent of climate damages. We focus on the profitability, stability, and “potential stability” of a number of coalitions which are “potentially effective” in reducing emissions. We find that only the grand coalition under a specific sets of assumptions finds it optimal to stabilise GHG concentration below 550 ppm CO2-eq. However, the grand coalition is found not to be stable, not even “potentially stable” even through an...
Tipo: Working Paper Palavras-chave: Climate Policy; Climate Coalition; Game Theory; Free Riding; Environmental Economics and Policy; C68; C72; D58; Q54.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/120048
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International Energy R&D Spillovers and the Economics of Greenhouse Gas Atmospheric Stabilization AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Carraro, Carlo; Massetti, Emanuele; Tavoni, Massimo.
It is widely recognized that technological change has the potential to reduce GHG emissions without compromising economic growth; hence, any better understanding of the process of technological innovation is likely to increase our knowledge of mitigation possibilities and costs. This paper explores how international knowledge flows affect the dynamics of the domestic R&D sector and the main economic and environmental variables. The analysis is performed using WITCH, a dynamic regional model of the world economy, in which energy technical change is endogenous. The focus is on disembodied energy R&D international spillovers. The knowledge pool from which regions draw foreign ideas differs between High Income and Low Income countries. Absorption...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Climate Policy; Energy R&D; International R&D Spillovers; Stabilization; Environmental Economics and Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; H0; H2; H3.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8217
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Investments and Financial Flows Induced by Climate Mitigation Policies AgEcon
Bastianin, Andrea; Favero, Alice; Massetti, Emanuele.
In this paper we use the hybrid integrated model WITCH to quantify and analyze the investments and financial flows stimulated by a climate policy to stabilize Greenhouse Gases concentrations at 550ppm CO2-eq at the end of the century. We focus on investments to decarbonize the power sector and on investments in knowledge creation. We examine the financial flows associated with the carbon market and the implications for the international trade of oil. Criticalities in investment requirements will emerge when coal power plants with carbon capture and sequestration and nuclear power plants are deployed around 2020-2040, both in high and low income regions. Investments in energy related R&D increase sharply and might cause stress in the short term....
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Climate Change; Mitigation; Carbon Finance; Emission Trading; Energy Investments; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q01; Q43; Q54; O32; O11.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59418
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Optimal Energy Investment and R&D Strategies to Stabilise Greenhouse Gas Atmospheric Concentrations AgEcon
Carraro, Carlo; Bosetti, Valentina; Massetti, Emanuele; Tavoni, Massimo.
The stabilisation of GHG atmospheric concentrations at levels expected to prevent dangerous climate change has become an important, global, long-term objective. It is therefore crucial to identify a cost-effective way to achieve this objective. In this paper we use WITCH, a hybrid climate-energy-economy model, to obtain a quantitative assessment of some cost-effective strategies that stabilise CO2 concentrations at 550 or 450 ppm. In particular, this paper analyses the energy investment and R&D policies that optimally achieve these two GHG stabilisation targets (i.e. the future optimal energy mix consistent with the stabilisation of GHG atmospheric concentrations at 550 and 450 ppm). Given that the model accounts for interdependencies and spillovers...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Climate Policy; Energy R&D; Investments; Stabilisation Costs; Environmental Economics and Policy; H0; H2; H3.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7435
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Super-Grids and Concentrated Solar Power: A Scenario Analysis with the WITCH Model AgEcon
Massetti, Emanuele; Ricci, Elena Claire.
We extend the WITCH model to consider the possibility to produce and trade electricity generated by large scale concentrated solar power plants in highly productive areas that are connected to the demand centres through High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) cables. We find that it becomes optimal to produce with this source only from 2040 and trade from 2050. In the second half of the century, CSP electricity shares become very significant especially when penetration limits are imposed on nuclear power and on carbon capture and storage operations (CCS). Climate policy costs can be reduced by large percentages, up to 66% with respect to corresponding scenarios without the CSP-powered Super-Grid option and with limits on nuclear power and CCS. We also show that...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Environmental Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/108260
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The Incentives to Participate in, and the Stability of, International Climate Coalitions: A Game-theoretic Analysis Using the Witch Model AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Carraro, Carlo; De Cian, Enrica; Duval, Romain; Massetti, Emanuele; Tavoni, Massimo.
This paper uses WITCH, an integrated assessment model with a game-theoretic structure, to explore the prospects for, and the stability of broad coalitions to achieve ambitious climate change mitigation action. Only coalitions including all large emitting regions are found to be technically able to meet a concentration stabilisation target below 550 ppm CO2eq by 2100. Once the free-riding incentives of non-participants are taken into account, only a “grand coalition” including virtually all regions can be successful. This grand coalition is profitable as a whole, implying that all countries can gain from participation provided appropriate transfers are made across them. However, neither the grand coalition nor smaller but still environmentally significant...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Climate Policy; Climate Coalition; Game Theory; Free Riding; Environmental Economics and Policy; C68; C72; D58; Q54.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54281
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The Optimal Climate Policy Portfolio when Knowledge Spills Across Sectors AgEcon
Massetti, Emanuele; Nicita, Lea.
This paper studies the implications for climate policy of the interactions between environmental and knowledge externalities. Using a numerical analysis performed with the hybrid integrated assessment model WITCH, extended to include mutual spillovers between the energy and the non-energy sector, we show that the combination between environmental and knowledge externalities provides a strong rationale for implementing a portfolio of policies for both emissions reduction and the internalisation of knowledge externalities. Moreover, we show that implementing technology policy as a substitute for stabilisation policy is likely to increase global emissions.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Technical Change; Climate Change; Development; Innovation; Spillovers; Environmental Economics and Policy; C72; H23; Q25; Q28; O31; O41; Q54.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/92912
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The WITCH Model. Structure, Baseline, Solutions AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Massetti, Emanuele; Tavoni, Massimo.
WITCH – World Induced Technical Change Hybrid – is a regionally disaggregated hard-link hybrid global model with a neoclassical optimal growth structure (top-down) and a detailed energy input component (bottom-up). The model endogenously accounts for technological change, both through learning curves that affect the prices of new vintages of capital and through R&D investments. The model features the main economic and environmental policies in each world region as the outcome of a dynamic game. WITCH belongs to the class of Integrated Assessment Models as it possesses a climate module that feeds climate changes back into the economy. Although the model’s main features are discussed elsewhere (Bosetti et al., 2006), here we provide a more thorough...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12064
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