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A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Analysis of the Impact of an Oil Price Increase in South Africa AgEcon
McDonald, Scott; van Schoor, Melt.
Following recent international oil price increases, there has been considerable interest in how this external factor can affect the South African economy. This paper reports results from a computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis of an increase (up to 30 per cent) in international oil prices. Background information is provided, which puts the magnitude of the price variations in historical context. We describe the procedure used to adjust the social accounting matrix (SAM), which is used to calibrate the model, to account explicitly for crude oil. Then, the effects of the crude oil price increase are traced through the economy, from markets, industries through to factors, households and the government. Predictably, the shock hurts the economy: a 20...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15633
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A social accounting matrix for modeling agricultural policy reform in South Africa AgEcon
McDonald, Scott; Kirsten, Johann F.; van Zyl, Johan.
In this paper the format of a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for use as a database for the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling of agricultural policy reform in South Africa is detailed. It is shown that the published South African SAMs impose limitations upon their suitability as databases for CGE models, but that they can be readily modified. An additional benefit of a SAM is its use as a framework for the specification of the behavioural relationships necessary to the development of a model. Finally, a Macro SAM for 1993 is reported and the proposed disaggregation of the agricultural sector is identified.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 1997 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54450
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Agricultural economics and transition: What was expected, what we observed, the lessons learned Proceedings (Volume I / II) AgEcon
Csaki, Csaba; Forgacs, Csaba; Koester, Ulrich; Liefert, William M.; Banse, Martin; Gay, Stephan Hubertus; McDonald, Scott; M'Barek, Robert; Swinnen, Johan F.M.; Kim, Hanho; An, Donghwan; Hubbard, Lionel J.; Rieger, Laszlo; Szoke, Gyula; Cristoiu, Adriana; Udovc, Andrej; Kagan, Adam; Sassi, Maria; Takacs, Istvan; Takacs, Emese; Cimpoies, Dragos; Ertsey, Imre; Kovacs, Sandor; Przygodzka, Renata; Dziemianowicz, Ryta Iwona; Magda, Robert; Borodina, Elena; Borodina, Alexandra; Gavrilescu, Dinu; Pecze, Denes; Balogh, Peter; Cechura, Lukas; Sayin, Cengiz; Cengiz, M. Nisa; Osanami, Fumio; Szabo, Gabor G.; Karaman, Suleyman; Szekely, Geza; Szczepaniak, Iwona; Szczegolska, Monika; Serova, Eugenia; Pieniadz, Agata; Barmon, Basanta Kumar; Kondo, Takumi; Becvarova, Vera; Levkovych, Inna; Hockmann, Heinrich; Bezlepkina, Irina V.; Kupavych, Alexander; Konig, Gabor; Halmai, Peter; Vasary, Viktoria; Vincze, Maria-Magdolna; Lerman, Zvi; Kolcsey, Andrea; Bokusheva, Raushan; Turtoi, Crina Sinziana; Toma, Camelia; Gavrilescu, Camelia; Davidova, Sophia; Blaas, Gejza; Antonova, Maria; Zeller, Manfred; Deininger, Klaus W.; Savastano, Sara; Carletto, Calogero; Caceres-Clavero, Francisco; Lucena-Cobos, Blanca; Latruffe, Laure; Takacs-Gyorgy, Katalin; Bandlerova, Anna; Sadowski, Adam; Gomez y Paloma, Sergio; Luca, Lucian; Cristoiu, Adriana; Ciaian, Pavel; Pokrivcak, Jan; Drabik, Dusan; Voneki, Eva; Tonini, Axel; Burger, Anna; Szep, Katalin; Majewski, Edward; Raggi, Meri; Viaggi, Davide; Maccarini, Elisa Ricci; Monasterolo, Irene; Vandeplas, Anneleen; Jongeneel, Roelof A.; Novak, Petr; Brasili, Cristina; Meyer, William H.; Kuhne, Bianka; Fanfani, Roberto; Gellynck, Xavier; Molnar, Adrienn; Gagalyuk, Taras; Traikova, Diana; Mollers, Judith; Cochrane, Nancy J.; Kazlauskiene, Natalija; Fekete-Farkas, Maria; Molnar, Jozsef; Szucs, Istvan; Popp, Jozsef; Udovecz, Gabor; Florkowski, Wojciech J.; Fritzsch, Jana; Buchenrieder, Gertrud; Kasarjyan, Milada; Podruzsik, Szilard; Korff, Rudiger; Wilkin, Jerzy; van Leeuwen, Myrna; Bartova, Lubica; Erjavec, Emil; Katona-Kovacs, Judit; Baranyai, Zsolt; Hubbard, Carmen.
Over fifteen years have elapsed since the transition from the centrally planned economic system started in the early 1990’s. During this time agricultural and rural areas of Central and Eastern Europe have undergone profound structural changes with wide variations in the degree of transformation and in the rate of success in creating a competitive market and private ownership based food and agricultural system. By becoming member of the European Union the "transition" in its traditional interpretation has been concluded in ten of the Central East European countries. The transition to market based agriculture, however, is far from completion in Southern and Eastern Europe and especially in the CIS countries. International Association of Agricultural...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Farm Management; Financial Economics; Industrial Organization; International Development; International Relations/Trade; Land Economics/Use; Production Economics.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/92319
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BILATERAL FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS AND CUSTOMS UNIONS: THE IMPACT OF THE EU REPUBLIC OF SOUTH AFRICA FREE TRADE AGREEMENT ON BOTSWANA AgEcon
McDonald, Scott; Walmsley, Terrie L..
The EU has indicated that after 2008 its trade relationships with developing countries will be dominated by the development of preferential trade agreements. Although not a consequence of the Cotonou Agreement, the free trade agreement between the EU and the Republic of South Africa (EU RSA FTA) is clearly one of the first fruits of this approach to trade relationships. However, there is no evidence that the design of the EU RSA FTA incorporated a comprehensive general equilibrium evaluation of the agreement for either the signatories or the other southern African nations. The analyses reported here indicate that while the EU RSA FTA may substantially benefit the signatories, there are appreciable negative impacts for other states, especially the RSA’'s...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28699
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Competitiveness in the Food Industry: a CGE Modelling Approach to assess Foreign Direct Investment in Transition Countries AgEcon
Banse, Martin; Gay, Stephan Hubertus; McDonald, Scott; M'Barek, Robert; Swinnen, Johan F.M..
For transition countries, the food industry sector is a key industry in terms of output and employment shares. As a competitive sector that receives substantial foreign direct investments (FDI), it plays an important role as an element in the process of integration in the European and world market. The GLOBE Computable General Equilibrium model is applied to analyse scenarios of alternative development pathways of the food industry sector, taking into account the impact of FDI in the European food industry. The scenario analyses of this study identify that with an enhanced attraction of FDI in the food processing industries in the New Member States (NMS) the integration of the agri-food sectors in the NMS into the Single European Market will become even...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Food industry; Foreign direct investment; CGE; Transition countries; Agribusiness; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8525
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Compiling National, Multiregional and Regional Social Accounting Matrices for South Africa AgEcon
van Schoor, Melt; Punt, Cecilia; McDonald, Scott.
This report provides a technical description of the development of a set of Social Accounting Matrices (SAMs) for South Africa for the base year 2000. The set of SAMs consists of a national SAM, four regional SAMs and a multiregional SAM. The point of departure is a National Accounting Matrix (NAM) for South Africa. The report discusses the structure of each type of SAM, the main data sources that were used and the way in which different sets of data were organised for inclusion in the SAM. Entropy techniques were used to estimate missing information in order to derive complete and consistent SAMs. The theory and practical implementation of the entropy techniques are discussed in this report. The large number of accounts included in the SAMs warranted that...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; D5.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/58067
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Costs and benefits of higher tariffs on wheat imports to South Africa AgEcon
McDonald, Scott; Punt, Cecilia; Rantho, Lillian; van Schoor, Melt.
Low international wheat prices, caused by tariffs and subsidies in developed countries, have been blamed for causing financial difficulty to South African farmers. While indignation at unfair trade practices may be valid, it does not necessarily follow that protection of the local industry is the best response. This study uses a static general equilibrium model to describe and quantify the effects of increased tariffs (by up to 25 percentage points) on the local wheat industry, other affected industries-- particularly downstream industries-- and the economy at large. The effects on factors, households and the government are also analysed. The results show that the benefits to the wheat industry are highly concentrated and smaller than the loss of income...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Computable general equilibrium (CGE); Wheat; Import tariffs; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6031
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Costs and Benefits of Higher Tariffs on Wheat Imports to South Africa - A General Equilibrium Analysis AgEcon
McDonald, Scott; Punt, Cecilia; Rantho, Lillian; van Schoor, Melt.
Low international wheat prices caused by tariffs and subsidies in developed countries have been blamed for causing financial difficulty to local farmers. While the indignation at these unfair trade practices may be valid, it does not follow that protection of the local industry is necessarily the best course of action. This paper uses a static general equilibrium model to describe and quantify the effects of increased tariffs (by up to 25 percentage points) on the local wheat industry, other affected industries, particularly downstream industries, and the economy at large. Additionally, the effects on factors, households and the government are also analysed. The results show that the benefits to the wheat industry are highly concentrated and smaller than...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15635
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DERIVING A GLOBAL SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRIX FROM GTAP VERSIONS 5 AND 6 DATA AgEcon
McDonald, Scott; Thierfelder, Karen.
This paper reports a method for converting versions 5 and 6 of the GTAP Data Base into a global SAM that is stored in both the GAMS data exchange (GDX) and Header Array (HAR) formats. The focus of attention is on the generation of a SAM representation of the GTAP Data Base that is fully consistent with the GTAP model; as such the resultant SAM can be readily used to calibrate a version of the GTAP model that had been coded in GAMS. The GAMS code used to generate the SAM representation of the GTAP Data Base is provided as a GAMS model library – this code has been tested with versions 5.3, 5.4 and 6.0 (pre release 5) of the GTAP Data Base.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28716
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General equilibrium modelling in South Africa: What the future holds AgEcon
McDonald, Scott; Punt, Cecilia.
This paper provides an overview of the main research contributions of the past decade using general equilibrium models to analyse agricultural issues in South Africa. The methodological developments since the change to democracy ten years ago are viewed in the context of developments in this area of research carried out internationally. It will be shown in this paper that the modelling and computing techniques have vastly improved during the past decade, both in an ongoing attempt to refine existing models, and in an attempt to extend the modelling framework to make provision for issues that cannot be sufficiently captured in the standard comparative static models. These extensions include dynamic modelling, global modelling, environmental modelling and...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31721
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Is African agriculture converging? Evidence from a panel of crop yields AgEcon
Lusigi, Angela; McDonald, Scott; Roberts, Jennifer R.; Thirtle, Colin G..
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2000 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54197
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SeeResults: A Spreadsheet Application for the Analysis of CGE Model Results AgEcon
van Schoor, Melt; McDonald, Scott; Punt, Cecilia.
CGE models tend to produce large amounts of result data, and it can be difficult and timeconsuming to view, import, process and keep track of these. SeeResults is an Excel-based spreadsheet application that has been developed within the PROVIDE project to facilitate viewing results and producing presentation output, such as charts. It effectively functions as a GDX (a binary format used for output from GAMS) file viewer, and has been designed to be flexible, user-friendly and immediately usable with minimal configuration. This paper describes the rationale for the application, its main features, a number of screen captures and implementation notes.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15624
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The impact of an increase in wine industry exports on the South African economy, focusing on the Western Cape AgEcon
McDonald, Scott; Punt, Cecilia; Bhanisi, Sipho.
A marketing strategy undertaken by role players in the wine industry is expected to lead to increases in South African wine exports. A multi-sector analysis, which takes into account the linkage effects in an economy, was conducted to estimate the impact of an increase in wine exports on the South African economy. The increase in wine exports will be the result of changed perceptions and hence increases in the export price faced by South African wine producers. Results of a 10% increase in the international wine price indicated an increase of 0.1% in gross domestic product (GDP). The general positive effect on the economy is reflected by the creation of 5 824 employment opportunities, of which 20% is in the Western Cape. Factor incomes shows varied...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Computable General Equilibrium Models; Agriculture in International Trade; Agricultural and Food Policy; International Relations/Trade; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; C68; Q17.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/58210
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The Integration of Palestinian-Israeli Labour Markets: A CGE Approach AgEcon
Flaig, Dorothee; Siddig, Khalid H.A.; Grethe, Harald; Luckmann, Jonas; McDonald, Scott.
Replaced with revised version of paper 07/12/11.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Labor market; CGE; Labor and Human Capital.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103861
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The PROVIDE Project Standard Computable General Equilibrium Model AgEcon
McDonald, Scott.
The paper describes the Standard Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model developed for the PROVIDE Project. The model allows for a generalised treatment of trade relationships by incorporating provisions for non-traded exports and imports, and competitive and noncompetitive imports, and allows the relaxation of the small country assumption for exported commodities. The model encompasses multiple product activities by differentiating between commodities by the activities that produce them, using a range of production technologies that can be selected by the user. The model is designed for calibration using data compiled as a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM). The model is designed so that it can be readily adapted by the user to incorporate different and/or...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15627
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The PROVIDE Project Standard Computable General Equilibrium Model: Version 2 AgEcon
McDonald, Scott.
The paper describes the Standard Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model developed for the PROVIDE Project. The model allows for a generalised treatment of trade relationships by incorporating provisions for non-traded exports and imports, and competitive and noncompetitive imports, and allows the relaxation of the small country assumption for exported commodities. The model encompasses multiple product activities by differentiating between commodities by the activities that produce them, using a range of production technologies that can be selected by the user. The model is designed for calibration using data compiled as a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM). The model is designed so that it can be readily adapted by the user to incorporate different and/or...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15625
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The Welfare Impacts of Domestic and International Agricultural Efficiency Gains – A South African Case Study AgEcon
McDonald, Scott; Pauw, Kalie; Punt, Cecilia.
A large proportion of the on-going reductions in global food prices are attributable to the efficiency gains associated with various ‘green revolutions’. Unfortunately the welfare gains associated with such productivity growth are unevenly distributed, with many African states reaping relatively few benefits. One possible reason for this is the failure of African agriculture to retain its relative competitiveness in global agricultural and food markets, and hence, the welfare gains associated with reductions in consumer prices are largely offset by the welfare losses associated with reductions in producer prices. The analyses reported in this paper explore how changes in domestic and international agricultural efficiency will impact upon the welfare of...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Productivity Analysis.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9522
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The Welfare Impacts of National and International Agricultural Efficiency Gains - A South African Case Study AgEcon
McDonald, Scott; Pauw, Kalie; Punt, Cecilia.
Ongoing agricultural and food commodity price declines associated with efficiency gains in agricultural production, both domestically and internationally, can have important welfare effects for a country. The fact that consumers can buy cheaper imported and/or domestically produced foodstuffs has various spin-off effects in the economy. However, as with any economic shock there are winners and losers, and hence it is important to gain an understanding of the economywide effects, specifically in terms of the employment effects and the income- and substitution effects associated with relative price changes in the economy. In this paper the impact of domestic and international efficiency changes in the agricultural sector is modelled using a South African...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Productivity Analysis.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15629
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Trade Liberalisation, Efficiency and South Africa's Sugar Industry AgEcon
McDonald, Scott; Punt, Cecilia; Leaver, Rosemary.
This paper reports the results of a computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis of the South African sugar industry. The study was inspired by analyses of the EU South Africa Free Trade Agreement that indicated the importance of sugar exports to the welfare gains from agricultural trade liberalisation and by the increasing pressure upon OECD countries to reform their sugar (trade) policies. In addition to the effects of trade liberalisation this study also considers the implications of increases in the efficiency with which sugarcane is converted to raw sugar, which is an important determinant of the competitiveness of sugar production and exports. The results indicate that there would be substantial welfare gains across all household groups and that...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15634
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