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A BEHAVIORAL APPROACH TOWARDS FUTURES CONTRACT USAGE. AgEcon
Pennings, Joost M.E.; Leuthold, Raymond M..
We propose a behavioral decision-making model to investigate what factors, observable as well as unobservable, owner-managers consider regarding futures contract usage. The conceptual model consists of two phases, reflecting the two-stage decision structure of manager’s use of futures. In the first phase owner-managers consider whether futures are within the market choice set for the enterprise. In the second phase the owner-manager decides whether or not to initiate a futures position when confronted with a concrete choice situation. In both phases owner-manager’s beliefs and perceptions play an important role. The proposed model is tested on a data set of Dutch farmers, based on computer-assisted personal interviews. Because we incorporate latent...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Hedging; Futures; Structural equation modeling; Behavioral models; Futures exchanges; Choice models; Farmers; Institutional and Behavioral Economics.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/46448
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A marketing-finance approach linking contracts in agricultural channels to shareholder value AgEcon
Pennings, Joost M.E.; Wansink, Brian; Hoffmann, Arvid O.I..
A conceptual marketing-finance framework is proposed which links channel contracting in agriculture and the use of financial facilitating services (e.g., financial derivatives) to (shareholder) value creation. The framework complements existing literature by explicitly including channel contract relationships as market-based assets that can be managed to reduce cash flow volatility and hence increase shareholder value. We show how financial facilitating services (e.g., derivatives) can be used to complement the cash flows components of channel contract relationships thereby further reducing the risk adjusted cost of capital and improving shareholder value. In a field study of producers, wholesalers, and processors, in the potato and meat industry the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Marketing-finance; Agricultural marketing strategy; Decision-making; Channels; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114785
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A new econometric test for asymmetric price adjustment by cointegration vector restrictions with an application to the U.S. and Dutch pork chains AgEcon
Kuiper, W. Erno; Pennings, Joost M.E.; Verhees, Frans J.H.M..
A new test of asymmetric price adjustment is proposed on the basis of the super-consistent cointegrating vector estimator in the Johansen (1995) cointegrating procedure. The super-consistency makes the test robust to misspecifications in the short-run model. Application of the test to the price spreads in the Dutch and U.S. pork chains reveals that in the Netherlands wholesalers might obtain extra price margin as a consequence of asymmetric price adjustment vis-à-vis the farmers.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114685
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Accounting for Heterogeneity in Hedging Behavior: Comparing & Evaluating Grouping Methods AgEcon
Pennings, Joost M.E.; Garcia, Philip; Irwin, Scott H..
Heterogeneity, i.e., the notion that individuals respond differently to economic stimuli, can have profound consequences for the interpretation of behavior and the formulation of agricultural policy. This paper compares and evaluates three grouping techniques that can be used to account for heterogeneity in financial behavior. Two are well established: company-type grouping and cluster analysis. A third, the generalized mixture regression model, has recently been developed and is worth considering as market participants are grouped such that their response to the determinants of economic behavior is similar. We evaluate the grouping methods in a hedging framework by assessing their ability to reflect relationships consistent with theory. The empirical...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Economic behavior; Heterogeneity; Hedging; Methods; Risk and Uncertainty; A10; B40; C1; D0; G0; L2; Q13.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114787
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Changing Agricultural Marketing Channel Structures: Interdependences & Risk Preferences AgEcon
Franken, Jason R.V.; Pennings, Joost M.E..
We propose a conceptual model that integrates transaction cost and risk behavior theories in an interdependence framework. Hypotheses are offered that relate the concepts that are central to the proposed model to the three dimensions of channel structures: the allocations of uncertainty, decision rights, and gains. An empirical research design is proposed to test the validity of the conceptual model within the context of the broiler and grain industries. The conceptual model will be validated in a structural equation modeling framework.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Marketing.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19414
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Complex Choices: Producers Risk Management Strategies AgEcon
Pennings, Joost M.E.; Isengildina, Olga; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.; Garcia, Philip; Frank, Julieta; Kuiper, W. Erno.
Producers have a wide variety of risk management instruments available. How do producers make a choice of risk management instruments? Using the recently developed choice bracketing framework, we examine what risk management strategies producers use and identify the factors that drive their risk management decisions. Our results identify that producers use a wide variety of combinations of risk management instruments and that they bracket their choices into sets of alternative risk management instruments. Using multinomial logit models to estimate the choice process provides information about the factors that influence producers' decision making. The results show that broad bracketing producers use different risk management instruments than narrow...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19550
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Consumer Food Safety Risk Attitudes and Perceptions Over Time: The Case of BSE Crisis AgEcon
Kalogeras, Nikos; Pennings, Joost M.E.; van Ittersum, Koert.
Recent research has shown that by decoupling the risk response behaviour of consumers into the separate components of risk perception and risk attitude, a more robust conceptualization and prediction of consumers’ reactions to food safety issues is possible. Furthermore, it has been argued that the influence of risk attitudes and risk perceptions on consumer risk behaviour for contaminated food products can be used to formulate effective agricultural policies and strategies in case of a food crisis. The question arises whether or not the influence and magnitude of these risk variables changes over time and, hence, whether policies and strategies must be adapted. The BSE (mad cow disease) crises in the USA, Germany and The Netherlands in 2001 and 2004...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Consumer risk behaviour; Food safety; Risk attitude; Risk perception; Time; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44156
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Consumer Risk Reactions to Food Product-Harm Crises Over Time: Evidence From Cross-Cultural Field Studies AgEcon
Kalogeras, Nikos; Pennings, Joost M.E.; van Ittersum, Koert.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Consumer/Household Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103769
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Consumers’ evaluations of socially responsible activities in retailing AgEcon
van Herpen, Erica; Pennings, Joost M.E.; Meulenberg, Matthew T.G..
We approach Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) as a process in which particular CSR activities impact on consumers’ store evaluation and trust. We hypothesize that consumers classify CSR activities along two dimensions: (1) the beneficiary of the activity and (2) the intrinsic contribution of the retailer, implying that consumers are interested in who reaps the benefits of the activity and how much the retailer invests in the activity. This conceptualization is confirmed in two field studies with 823 and 486 consumers. These field studies also show that consumers who perceive more CSR have more trust in the store and that their overall evaluation of the store is higher. Furthermore, it is shown that even though CSR affects both outcomes, the effect on...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Consumer/Household Economics.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/46730
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Consumers Valuations and Choice Processes of Food Safety Enhancement Attributes: An International Study of Beef Consumers AgEcon
Tonsor, Glynn T.; Schroeder, Ted C.; Pennings, Joost M.E.; Mintert, James R..
Food safety concerns have had dramatic impacts on food and livestock markets in recent years. Here we examine consumer preferences for various beef food safety assurances. In particular, we evaluate the extent to which such preferences are heterogeneous within and across country-of-residence defined groups and examine the distributional nature of these preferences with respect to marginal improvements in food safety. We collected data from over 4,000 U.S., Canada, Japan, and Mexican consumers. Using mixed logit models we find that Japanese and Mexican consumers have WTP preferences that are nonlinear in the level of food safety risk reduction. Conversely, U.S .and Canadian consumers appear to possess linear preferences. These results suggest that optimal...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Consumer beef preference; Food safety; Investment decision; Mixed logit; Willingness-to-pay; Demand and Price Analysis; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9976
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Crop Farmers’ Use of Market Advisory Services AgEcon
Isengildina, Olga; Pennings, Joost M.E.; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L..
This study sought to examine the nature of farmers’ use of market advisory services based on the results of a survey of US crop producers. The survey revealed that market advisory service users tend to be significantly more risk seeking than non-users. Survey results indicated a large range in patterns of use of advisory services. Most farmers use advisory services to the greatest extent for marketing information, market analysis, and to keep up with markets. General guidelines (market strategies and price information) are utilized more than specific advice (e.g., specific pricing decisions, price forecasts). Only 11% of farmers reported that they closely follow the marketing recommendations provided by advisory services. Nonetheless, farmers report that...
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37489
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Do Transaction Costs and Risk Preferences Influence Marketing Arrangements in the Illinois Hog Industry? AgEcon
Franken, Jason R.V.; Pennings, Joost M.E.; Garcia, Philip.
Risk reduction and transaction costs are often used to explain contracting in the U.S. hog industry with little empirical support. Using a unified conceptual framework that draws from risk behavior and transaction cost theories, in combination with unique survey and accounting data, we demonstrate that risk preferences and asset specificity impact Illinois producers’ use of contracts and spot markets. In particular, producers’ investments in specific hog genetics and human capital are related to selection of long-term marketing contracts over spot markets. Producers who perceive greater levels of price risk and/or are more averse are more (less) likely to use contracts (spot markets).
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Asset specificity; Contracts; Hogs; Risk attitude; Risk behavior; Risk perception; Transaction costs economics; Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54548
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Do Transaction Costs and Risk Preferences Influence Marketing Arrangements in the Illinois Hog Industry? AgEcon
Franken, Jason R.V.; Pennings, Joost M.E.; Garcia, Philip.
Studies of hog industry structure often invoke risk reduction and transaction costs explanations for empirical observations but fail to directly examine the core concepts of risk behavior and transaction costs theories. Using a more unified conceptual framework and unique survey and accounting data, this study demonstrates that that risk preferences and asset specificity impact Illinois producers’ use of contracts and spot markets as suggested by theory. Factor analytic methods limit measurement error for indirectly observable risk and transaction costs variables employed in logit regressions. In particular, related investments in specific hog genetics and specific human capital regarding the production process increase the probability of selecting...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Risk behavior; Transaction costs economics; Risk attitude and risk perception; Asset specificity; Contracts; Hogs; Agricultural Finance.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37599
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Dynamic Decision Making in Agricultural Futures and Options Markets AgEcon
Mattos, Fabio; Garcia, Philip; Pennings, Joost M.E..
This paper investigates the dynamics of sequential decision-making in agricultural futures and options markets. Analysis of trading records of 12 traders identified considerable heterogeneity in individual dynamic trading behavior. Using risk measures derived from the deltas and vegas of trader’s portfolios, we find nearly half the traders behavior is consistent with a house-money effect and the other half with loss aversion. These findings correspond closely to expected behavior inferred from elicited utility and probability weighting functions. The results call into question more aggregate findings that discount probability weighting to develop risk measures which support the notion of more uniform, less heterogeneous, behavior. Understanding behavior in...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Loss aversion; House-money effect; Futures; Options; Agricultural Finance.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37605
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Farmers’ Subjective Perceptions of Yield and Yield Risk AgEcon
Egelkraut, Thorsten M.; Sherrick, Bruce J.; Garcia, Philip; Pennings, Joost M.E..
Using survey responses of Illinois corn farmers to differently framed yield questions, we examine their subjective information by relating stated yields and risk to the corresponding objective county measures. The results show that farm-level yields can be best characterized by soliciting probabilistic information, which provides more accurate yield assessments than an open-ended frame and consistent estimates of producers’ subjective risk. Moreover, we find that overconfidence can be confused with differences in relevant information and that using recent data may be more appropriate in examining subjective risk statements. Our results are important for agricultural policy-makers and researchers, particularly those who work with surveys that include...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18991
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FUTURES MARKET DEPTH: REVEALED VS. PERCEIVED PRICE ORDER IMBALANCES AgEcon
Pennings, Joost M.E.; Garcia, Philip; Marsh, Julia W..
In this paper we study futures market depth by examining the price path due to order imbalances thereby allowing us to directly gain insight in the execution costs due to a lack of market depth We propose a two dimensional market depth measure in which the price path due to order imbalances is described by an S-shape function. The proposed market depth measure is applied to transaction specific futures data from Euronext. Subsequently, we examine CBOT traders' perceptions about the price path due to order imbalances and examine the characteristics that are associated with a particular perception. The proposed market depth measure gives guidelines for improving market depth, and can be used to compare competitive futures contracts. It appears that the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Marketing.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18989
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HOW TO GROUP MARKET PARTICIPANTS? HETEROGENEITY IN HEDGING BEHAVIOR AgEcon
Pennings, Joost M.E.; Garcia, Philip; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L..
Using a generalized mixture model, we model individual heterogeneity by identifying groups of participants that respond in a similar manner to the determinants of economic behavior. The procedure emphasizes the role of theory as the determinants of behavior are used to simultaneously explain market activities and to discriminate among groups of market participants. We show the appealing properties of this modeling approach by comparing it with two often used grouping methods in an empirical study in which we estimate the factors affecting market participants' hedging behavior.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Institutional and Behavioral Economics.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21963
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Incentive Provision and Coordination Costs in Food-Marketing Channels: A Multi-Stage Channel-Agency Theory Perspective AgEcon
Kuwornu, John K.M.; Kuiper, W. Erno; Pennings, Joost M.E.; Meulenberg, Matthew T.G..
Food-supply chains have become extensively vertically coordinated through the use of contracts as an organizational response to satisfy the needs of consumers in the saturated food markets of the industrialized countries. The contracts involved must establish an optimal trade-off between incentive provision and risk reduction. Agency theory can be used to model this trade-off. We show how to do this in a three-stage (producer, wholesaler, retailer) principal-agent supply-chain model. Its application to the Dutch supply chain of ware potatoes shows that during the period 1961–-2002, retailers have been able to provide more incentives to the wholesalers and producers and as a consequence the costs of coordination in the supply chain decreased.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Agribusiness.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/26758
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Insights into Trader Behavior: Risk Aversion and Probability Weighting AgEcon
Mattos, Fabio; Garcia, Philip; Pennings, Joost M.E..
The objective of this study is to investigate how professional traders in futures and options markets behave under risk and uncertainty. Our preliminary findings suggest that most traders exhibit concave utility functions for gains and convex utility functions for losses, while their weighting functions are inverse s-shaped. However, differences in magnitude of the risk aversion parameters and the degree of probability weighting can lead to distinct behavior even if the shapes of utility and weighting functions are the same. Further, the typical pattern of prospect theory is more prevalent under risk but not as much under uncertainty. More combinations of shapes for utility and weighting functions are found under uncertainty, suggesting that different...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Trader behavior; Risk aversion; Probability weighting.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37569
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Is the Ownership Structure Model a Decisive Determinant of Co-Operatives' Financial Success? A Financial Assessment AgEcon
Kalogeras, Nikos; Pennings, Joost M.E.; Kuikman, Joost; Doumpos, Michael.
In this paper, the financial/ownership structures of agribusiness co-operatives (co-ops) are analyzed in order to examine whether new co-op models perform better than the more traditional ones. The assessment procedure introduces a new financial decision-aid approach, which is based on data-analysis techniques in combination with a Preference Ranking Organization Method of Enrichment Evaluations (PROMETHEE II). The application of this multi-criteria decision-aid approach allows the rank ordering of the co-ops on the basis of the most prominent financial ratios. The financial ratios were selected using principal component analysis. This analytical procedure reduces the dimensionality of large numbers of interrelated financial performance measures. We assess...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agribusiness cooperatives; Financial success; Multicriteria decision-aid analysis; Agribusiness.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103774
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