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Registros recuperados: 20
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Abatement Cost Uncertainty and Policy Instrument Selection under a Stringent Climate Policy. A Dynamic Analysis AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Golub, Alexander; Markandya, Anil; Massetti, Emanuele; Tavoni, Massimo.
This paper investigates the relative economic and environmental outcomes of price versus quantity mechanisms to control GHG emissions when abatement costs are uncertain. In particular, we evaluate the impacts on policy costs, CO2 emissions and energy R&D for a stringent mitigation target of 550 ppmv CO2 equivalent (i.e. 450 for CO2 only) concentrations. The analysis is performed in an optimal growth framework via Monte Carlo simulations of the integrated assessment model WITCH (World Induced Technical Change Hybrid). Results indicate that the price instrument stochastically dominates the quantity instrument when a stringent stabilization policy is in place.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Abatement Costs; Climate Policy; Environmental Economics and Policy; H2; C6; Q5.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6383
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Alternative Paths toward a Low Carbon World AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Carraro, Carlo; Tavoni, Massimo.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Climate Policy; Stabilization Costs; Environmental Economics and Policy; C72; H23; Q25; Q28.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/90948
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Clean or “Dirty” Energy: Evidence on a Renewable Energy Resource Curse AgEcon
Gennaioli, Caterina; Tavoni, Massimo.
The aim of this paper is to provide an assessment of the potential for resource curse in the renewable energy sector. Taking a political economy approach, we analyze the link between public support schemes for renewable energy and the potential scope for rent seeking and corruption. The insights of a model of political influence by interest groups are tested empirically using a panel data of Italian provinces for the period 1990-2007. We find evidence that a curse exists in the case of wind energy, and specifically that: i) criminal association activity increased more in high-wind provinces and especially after the introduction of a more favourable public policy regime and, ii) the expansion of the wind energy sector has been driven by both the wind level...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Corruption; Natural Resources Curse; Wind Energy; Political Economy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; D73; O13; P16.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/115846
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Climate Change Mitigation Strategies in Fast-Growing Countries: The Benefits of Early Action AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Tavoni, Massimo; Carraro, Carlo.
This paper builds on the assumption that OECD countries are (or will soon be) taking actions to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. These actions, however, will not be sufficient to control global warming, unless developing countries also get involved in the cooperative effort to reduce GHG emissions. This paper investigates the best short-term strategies that emerging economies can adopt in reacting to OECD countries’ mitigation effort, given the common long-term goal to prevent excessive warming without hampering economic growth. Results indicate that developing countries would incur substantial economic losses by following a myopic strategy that disregards climate in the short-run, and that their optimal investment behaviour is to anticipate the...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Energy-economy Modeling; Climate Policy; Developing Countries; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q54; Q55; Q43.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/52541
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Delayed Action and Uncertain Targets. How Much Will Climate Policy Cost? AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Carraro, Carlo; Sgobbi, Alessandra; Tavoni, Massimo.
Despite the growing concern about actual on-going climate change, there is little consensus about the scale and timing of actions needed to stabilise the concentrations of greenhouse gases. Many countries are unwilling to implement effective mitigation strategies, at least in the short-term, and no agreement on an ambitious global stabilisation target has yet been reached. It is thus likely that some, if not all countries, will delay the adoption of effective climate policies. This delay will affect the cost of future policy measures that will be required to abate an even larger amount of emissions. What additional economic cost of mitigation measures will this delay imply? At the same time, the uncertainty surrounding the global stabilisation target to be...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Uncertainty; Climate Policy; Stabilisation Costs; Delayed Action; Environmental Economics and Policy; C72; H23; Q25; Q28.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44219
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Delayed Participation of Developing Countries to Climate Agreements: Should Action in the EU and US be Postponed? AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Carraro, Carlo; Tavoni, Massimo.
This paper analyses the cost implications for climate policy in developed countries if developing countries are unwilling to adopt measures to reduce their own GHG emissions. First, we assume that a 450 CO2 (550 CO2e) ppmv stabilisation target is to be achieved and that Non Annex1 (NA1) countries decide to delay their GHG emission reductions by 30 years. What would be the cost difference between this scenario and a case in which both developed and developing countries start reducing their emissions at the same time? Then, we look at a scenario in which the timing of developing countries’ participation is uncertain and again we compute the costs of climate policy in developed and developing countries. We find that delayed participation of NA1 countries has...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Delayed Action; Climate Policy; Stabilisation Costs; Uncertain Participation; Environmental Economics and Policy; C72; H23; Q25; Q28.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44220
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Forestry and the Carbon Market Response to Stabilize Climate AgEcon
Tavoni, Massimo; Bosetti, Valentina; Sohngen, Brent.
This paper investigates the potential contribution of forestry management in meeting a CO2 stabilization policy of 550 ppmv by 2100. In order to assess the optimal response of the carbon market to forest sequestration we couple two global models. An energy-economy-climate model for the study of climate policies is linked with a detailed forestry model through an iterative procedure to provide the optimal abatement strategy. Results show that forestry is a determinant abatement option and could lead to significantly lower policy costs if included. Linking forestry management to the carbon market has the potential to delay the policy burden, and is expected to reduce the price of carbon of 40% by 2050. Biological sequestration will mostly come from avoided...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Environmental Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10263
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Human Capital, Innovation, and Climate Policy: An Integrated Assessment AgEcon
Carraro, Carlo; De Cian, Enrica; Tavoni, Massimo.
This paper looks at the interplay between human capital and innovation in the presence of climate and educational policies. Using recent empirical estimates, human capital and general purpose R&D are introduced in an integrated assessment model that has been extensively applied to study climate change mitigation. Our results suggest that climate policy stimulates general purpose as well as clean energy R&D but reduces the incentive to invest in human capital formation. Human capital increases the productivity of labour and the complementarity between labour and energy drives its pollution-using effect (direct effect). When human capital is an essential input in the production of generic and energy dedicated knowledge, the crowding out induced by...
Tipo: Working Paper Palavras-chave: Climate Policy; Innovation; Human capital; Environmental Economics and Policy; O33; O41; Q43.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122861
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Incentives and Stability of International Climate Coalitions: An Integrated Assessment AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Carraro, Carlo; De Cian, Enrica; Massetti, Emanuele; Tavoni, Massimo.
This paper analyses the incentives to participate in and the stability of international climate coalitions. Using the integrated assessment model WITCH, the analysis of coalitions’ profitability and stability is performed under alternative assumptions concerning the pure rate of time preference, the social welfare aggregator and the extent of climate damages. We focus on the profitability, stability, and “potential stability” of a number of coalitions which are “potentially effective” in reducing emissions. We find that only the grand coalition under a specific sets of assumptions finds it optimal to stabilise GHG concentration below 550 ppm CO2-eq. However, the grand coalition is found not to be stable, not even “potentially stable” even through an...
Tipo: Working Paper Palavras-chave: Climate Policy; Climate Coalition; Game Theory; Free Riding; Environmental Economics and Policy; C68; C72; D58; Q54.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/120048
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International Energy R&D Spillovers and the Economics of Greenhouse Gas Atmospheric Stabilization AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Carraro, Carlo; Massetti, Emanuele; Tavoni, Massimo.
It is widely recognized that technological change has the potential to reduce GHG emissions without compromising economic growth; hence, any better understanding of the process of technological innovation is likely to increase our knowledge of mitigation possibilities and costs. This paper explores how international knowledge flows affect the dynamics of the domestic R&D sector and the main economic and environmental variables. The analysis is performed using WITCH, a dynamic regional model of the world economy, in which energy technical change is endogenous. The focus is on disembodied energy R&D international spillovers. The knowledge pool from which regions draw foreign ideas differs between High Income and Low Income countries. Absorption...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Climate Policy; Energy R&D; International R&D Spillovers; Stabilization; Environmental Economics and Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; H0; H2; H3.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8217
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Modelling Economic Impacts of Alternative International Climate Policy Architectures. A Quantitative and Comparative Assessment of Architectures for Agreement AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Carraro, Carlo; Sgobbi, Alessandra; Tavoni, Massimo.
This paper provides a quantitative comparison of the main architectures for an agreement on climate policy. Possible successors to the Kyoto protocol are assessed according to four criteria: economic efficiency; environmental effectiveness; distributional implications; and their political acceptability which is measured in terms of feasibility and enforceability. The ultimate aim is to derive useful information for designing a future agreement on climate change control.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Climate Policy; Integrated Modelling; International Agreements; Environmental Economics and Policy; C72; H23; Q25; Q28.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44535
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Nuclear versus Coal plus CCS: A Comparison of Two Competitive Base-load Climate Control Options AgEcon
Tavoni, Massimo; van der Zwaan, Bob.
In this paper we analyze the relative importance and mutual behavior of two competing base-load electricity generation options that each are capable of contributing significantly to the abatement of global CO2 emissions: nuclear energy and coal-based power production complemented with CO2 capture and storage (CCS). We also investigate how, in scenarios from an integrated assessment model that simulates the economics of a climate-constrained world, the prospects for nuclear energy would change if exogenous limitations on the spread of nuclear technology were relaxed. Using the climate change economics model WITCH we find that until 2050 the resulting growth rates of nuclear electricity generation capacity become comparable to historical rates observed...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Economic Competition; Electricity Sector; Nuclear Power; Coal Power; CCS; Renewables; Climate Policy; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; D8; D9; H0; O3; O4; Q4; Q5.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/55327
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Optimal Energy Investment and R&D Strategies to Stabilise Greenhouse Gas Atmospheric Concentrations AgEcon
Carraro, Carlo; Bosetti, Valentina; Massetti, Emanuele; Tavoni, Massimo.
The stabilisation of GHG atmospheric concentrations at levels expected to prevent dangerous climate change has become an important, global, long-term objective. It is therefore crucial to identify a cost-effective way to achieve this objective. In this paper we use WITCH, a hybrid climate-energy-economy model, to obtain a quantitative assessment of some cost-effective strategies that stabilise CO2 concentrations at 550 or 450 ppm. In particular, this paper analyses the energy investment and R&D policies that optimally achieve these two GHG stabilisation targets (i.e. the future optimal energy mix consistent with the stabilisation of GHG atmospheric concentrations at 550 and 450 ppm). Given that the model accounts for interdependencies and spillovers...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Climate Policy; Energy R&D; Investments; Stabilisation Costs; Environmental Economics and Policy; H0; H2; H3.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7435
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Safe vs. Fair: A Formidable Trade-off in Tackling Climate Change AgEcon
Tavoni, Massimo; Chakravarty, Shoibal; Socolow, Robert.
Global warming requires a response characterized by forward-looking management of atmospheric carbon and respect for ethical principles. Both safety and fairness must be pursued, and there are severe trade-offs as these are intertwined by the limited headroom for additional atmospheric CO2 emissions. This paper provides a simple numerical mapping at the aggregated level of developed vs. developing countries in which safety and fairness are formulated in terms of cumulative emissions and cumulative per capita emissions respectively. It becomes evident that safety and fairness cannot be achieved simultaneously for strict definitions of both. The paper further posits potential global trading in future cumulative emissions budgets in a world where financial...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Climate Policy; Burden Sharing; Negative Emissions; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q01; Q56.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/115818
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The 2008 WITCH Model: New Model Features and Baseline AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; De Cian, Enrica; Sgobbi, Alessandra; Tavoni, Massimo.
WITCH is an energy-economy-climate model developed by the climate change group at FEEM. The model has been extensively used in the past 3 years for the economic analysis of climate change policies. WITCH is a hybrid top-down economic model with a representation of the energy sector of medium complexity. Two distinguishing features of the WITCH model are the representation of endogenous technological change and the game–theoretic set-up. Technological change is driven by innovation and diffusion processes, both of which feature international spillovers. World countries are grouped in 12 regions which interact with each other in a setting of strategic interdependence. This paper describes the updating of the base year data to 2005 and some new features: the...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Climate Policy; Hybrid Modelling; Integrated Assessment; Technological Change; Environmental Economics and Policy; O33; O41; Q43.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/55284
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The Incentives to Participate in, and the Stability of, International Climate Coalitions: A Game-theoretic Analysis Using the Witch Model AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Carraro, Carlo; De Cian, Enrica; Duval, Romain; Massetti, Emanuele; Tavoni, Massimo.
This paper uses WITCH, an integrated assessment model with a game-theoretic structure, to explore the prospects for, and the stability of broad coalitions to achieve ambitious climate change mitigation action. Only coalitions including all large emitting regions are found to be technically able to meet a concentration stabilisation target below 550 ppm CO2eq by 2100. Once the free-riding incentives of non-participants are taken into account, only a “grand coalition” including virtually all regions can be successful. This grand coalition is profitable as a whole, implying that all countries can gain from participation provided appropriate transfers are made across them. However, neither the grand coalition nor smaller but still environmentally significant...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Climate Policy; Climate Coalition; Game Theory; Free Riding; Environmental Economics and Policy; C68; C72; D58; Q54.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54281
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The Role of R&D and Technology Diffusion in Climate Change Mitigation: New Perspectives Using the Witch Model AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Carraro, Carlo; Duval, Romain; Sgobbi, Alessandra; Tavoni, Massimo.
This paper uses the WITCH model, a computable general equilibrium model with endogenous technological change, to explore the impact of various climate policies on energy technology choices and the costs of stabilising greenhouse gas concentrations. Current and future expected carbon prices appear to have powerful effects on R&D spending and clean technology diffusion. Their impact on stabilisation costs depends on the nature of R&D: R&D targeted at incremental energy efficiency improvements has only limited effects, but R&D focused on the emergence of major new low-carbon technologies could lower costs drastically if successful – especially in the non-electricity sector, where such low-carbon options are scarce today. With emissions coming...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Climate policy; Energy R&D; Fund; Stabilisation costs; Environmental Economics and Policy; H0; H2; H3; H4; O3; Q32; Q43; Q54.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/50363
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The WITCH Model. Structure, Baseline, Solutions AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Massetti, Emanuele; Tavoni, Massimo.
WITCH – World Induced Technical Change Hybrid – is a regionally disaggregated hard-link hybrid global model with a neoclassical optimal growth structure (top-down) and a detailed energy input component (bottom-up). The model endogenously accounts for technological change, both through learning curves that affect the prices of new vintages of capital and through R&D investments. The model features the main economic and environmental policies in each world region as the outcome of a dynamic game. WITCH belongs to the class of Integrated Assessment Models as it possesses a climate module that feeds climate changes back into the economy. Although the model’s main features are discussed elsewhere (Bosetti et al., 2006), here we provide a more thorough...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12064
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Uncertain R&D, Backstop Technology and GHGs Stabilization AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Tavoni, Massimo.
This paper analyses optimal investments in innovation when dealing with a stringent climate target and with the uncertain effectiveness of R&D. The innovation needed to achieve the deep cut in emissions is modelled by a backstop carbon-free technology whose cost depends on R&D investments. To better represent the process of technological progress, we assume that R&D effectiveness is uncertain. By means of a simple analytical model, we show how accounting for the uncertainty that characterizes technological advancement yields higher investments in innovation and lower policy costs. We then confirm the results via a numerical analysis performed with a stochastic version of WITCH, an energy-economy-climate model. The results stress the importance...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12048
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What Should We Expect from Innovation? A Model-Based Assessment of the Environmental and Mitigation Cost Implications of Climate-Related R&D AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Carraro, Carlo; Duval, Romain; Tavoni, Massimo.
This paper addresses two basic issues related to technological innovation and climate stabilisation objectives: i) Can innovation policies be effective in stabilising greenhouse gas concentrations? ii) To what extent can innovation policies complement carbon pricing (taxes or permit trading) and improve the economic efficiency of a mitigation policy package? To answer these questions, we use an integrated assessment model with multiple externalities and an endogenous representation of technical progress in the energy sector. We evaluate a range of innovation policies, both as a stand-alone instrument and in combination with other mitigation policies. Even under fairly optimistic assumptions about the funding available for, and the returns to R&D, our...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Climate Change; Environmental Policy; Energy R&D Fund; Stabilisation Costs; Environmental Economics and Policy; H0; H2; H3; H4; O3; Q32; Q43; Q54.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/60745
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