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Climate change policy in a growing economy under catastrophic risks AgEcon
Tsur, Yacov; Zemel, Amos.
Under risk of catastrophic climate change, the occurrence hazard is added to the social discount rate. As a result, the social discount rate (i) increases and (ii) turns endogenous to the global warming policy. The second effect bears profound policy implications that are magnifed by economic growth. In particular, it implies that green- house gases (GHG) emission should gradually be brought to a halt. Due to the public bad nature of the catastrophic risk, the second effect is ignored in a competitive allocation and unregulated economic growth will give rise to excessive emissions. We find that the GHG emission paths under the optimal and competitive growth regimes lie at the extreme ends of the range of feasible emissions. We derive the Pigouvian hazard...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Abrupt climate change; Environmental catastrophes; Economic growth; Emission policy; Hazard rate; Environmental Economics and Policy; H23; H41; O13; O40; Q54; Q58.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7132
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Climate Policy When the Distant Future Matters: Catastrophic Events with Hyperbolic Discounting AgEcon
Karp, Larry S.; Tsur, Yacov.
Low probability catastrophic climate change can have a significant influence on policy under hyperbolic discounting. We compare the set of Markov Perfect Equilibria (MPE) to the optimal policy under time-consistent commitment. For some initial levels of risk there are multiple MPE; these may involve either excessive or insufficient stabilization effort. These results imply that even if the free-rider problem amongst contemporaneous decision-makers were solved, there may remain a coordination problem amongst successive generations of decision-makers. A numerical example shows that under plausible conditions society should respond vigorously to the threat of climate change.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Abrupt climate change; Event uncertainty; Catastrophic risk; Hyperbolic discounting; Markov Perfect Equilibria; Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; C61; C73; D63; D99; Q54.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7186
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CLIMATE POLICY WHEN THE DISTANT FUTURE MATTERS: CATASTROPHIC EVENTS WITH HYPERBOLIC DISCOUNTING AgEcon
Karp, Larry S.; Tsur, Yacov.
Low probability catastrophic climate change can have a signifcant influence on policy under hyperbolic discounting. We compare the set of Markov Perfect Equilibria (MPE) to the optimal policy under time-consistent commitment. For some initial levels of risk there are multiple MPE; these may involve either excessive or insufficient stabilization effort. These results imply that even if the free-rider problem amongst contemporaneous decision-makers were solved, there may remain a coordination problem amongst successive generations of decision-makers. A numerical example shows that under plausible conditions society should respond vigorously to the threat of climate change.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Abrupt climate change; Event uncertainty; Catastrophic risk; Hyperbolic discounting; Markov Perfect Equilibria; Environmental Economics and Policy; C61; C73; D63; D99; Q54.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7181
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Endogenous Discounting and Climate Policy AgEcon
Tsur, Yacov; Zemel, Amos.
Under risk of abrupt climate change, the occurrence hazard is added to the social discount rate. As a result, the social discount rate (i) increases and (ii) turns endogenous to the global warming policy. The second effect bears profound policy implications that are magnified by economic growth. In particular, we find that greenhouse gases (GHG) emission should be terminated at a finite time so that the ensuing occurrence risk will vanish in the long run. Due to the public bad nature of the catastrophic risk, the second effect is ignored in a competitive allocation and unregulated economic growth will give rise to excessive emissions. In fact, the GHG emission paths under the optimal and competitive growth regimes lie at the extreme ends of the range of...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Abrupt climate change; Hazard rate; Discounting; Economic growth; Emission policy; H23; H41; O13; O40; Q54; Q58.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37944
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Large sensitivity to freshwater forcing location in 8.2ka simulations ArchiMer
Morrill, Carrie; Ward, Ellen M.; Wagner, Amy J.; Otto-bliesner, Bette L.; Rosenbloom, Nan.
The 8.2ka event is a key test case for simulating the coupled climate response to changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Recent advances in quantifying freshwater fluxes at 8.2ka from the proxy record have improved the realism of the forcing magnitude in model simulations, yet this forcing is still generally applied in an unrealistic geographic manner, across most of the Labrador Sea rather than just along the Labrador coast. Previous simulations with eddy- resolving ocean models have come to conflicting conclusions regarding the ability of such a coastally confined flow to impact the AMOC. These simulations have also not incorporated full atmosphere models nor have they used the new meltwater forcing values for 8.2ka. We use...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation; Abrupt climate change; Deglaciation; 8; 2 ka event; Freshwater forcing; Coupled climate model simulation.
Ano: 2014 URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00496/60735/65213.pdf
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Timing of massive ‘Fleuve Manche’ discharges over the last 350 kyr: insights into the European ice-sheet oscillations and the European drainage network from MIS 10 to 2 ArchiMer
Toucanne, Samuel; Zaragosi, S.; Bourillet, Jean-francois; Cremer, M.; Eynaud, Frederique; Van Vliet-lanoe, B.; Penaud, A.; Fontanier, C.; Turon, J. L.; Cortijo, E.; Gibbard, P. L..
Continuous high-resolution mass accumulation rates (MAR) and X-ray fluorescence (XRF) measurements from marine sediment records in the Bay of Biscay (NE Atlantic) have allowed the determination of the timing and the amplitude of the ‘Fleuve Manche’ (Channel River) discharges during glacial stages MIS 10, MIS 8, MIS 6 and MIS 4–2. These results have yielded detailed insight into the Middle and Late Pleistocene glaciations in Europe and the drainage network of the western and central European rivers over the last 350 kyr. This study provides clear evidence that the ‘Fleuve Manche’ connected the southern North Sea basin with the Bay of Biscay during each glacial period and reveals that ‘Fleuve Manche’ activity during the glaciations MIS 10 and MIS 8 was...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Northern north sea; Late weichselian glaciation; Western iberian margin; Abrupt climate change; C 14 YR BP; Deep sea; Heinrich events; Norwegian margin; Millennial scale; English channel.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00011/12261/9037.pdf
Registros recuperados: 6
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