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Registros recuperados: 12
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Agent-based Analysis of Agricultural Policies: an Illustration of the Agricultural Policy Simulator AgriPoliS, its Adaptation and Behavior Ecology and Society
Happe, Kathrin; Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe; happe@iamo.de; Kellermann, Konrad; Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe; kellermann@iamo.de; Balmann, Alfons; Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe; balmann@iamo.de.
This paper combines agent-based modeling of structural change with agricultural policy analysis. Using the agent-based model AgriPoliS, we investigate the impact of a regime switch in agricultural policy on structural change under various framework conditions. Instead of first doing a sensitivity analysis to analyze the properties of our model and then examining the introduced policy in an isolated manner, we use a meta-modeling approach in combination with the statistical technique of Design of Experiments to systematically analyze the relationship between policy change and model assumptions regarding key determinants of structural change such as interest rates, managerial abilities, and technical change. As a result, we observe that the effects of...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Agent-based modeling; Agricultural policy analysis; Empirical-based simulation; Experimental design; Farm structures; Meta-modeling..
Ano: 2006
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Agentenbasierte Politik- und Sektoranalyse - Perspektiven und Herausforderungen AgEcon
Balmann, Alfons; Happe, Kathrin.
During the last decade a new modeling approach, known as agent-based modeling, was developed and made its way into several areas of research. It greatly benefited from rapid developments in computing technology. As for economics, agent-based modeling is based on the observation that social systems can be understood and modeled explicitly as systems of interacting agents. Because of their flexibility with respect to the representation of agents, the interactions between agents as well as the resulting dynamic and spatial relationships, these models offer a great variety of perspectives for future research. In this contribution, the underlying modeling concept is presented, and exemplary applications to the field of sector and policy analysis are discussed....
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Agent-based modeling; Agent-based systems; Policy analysis; Sector modeling; Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/99009
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Agents, Individuals, and Networks: Modeling Methods to Inform Natural Resource Management in Regional Landscapes Ecology and Society
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Agent-based modeling; Complex systems; Individual-based modeling; Integrated natural resource management; Landscape modeling; Regional landscapes; Social-ecological networks.
Ano: 2012
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Assessing the Effectiveness of Payments for Ecosystem Services: an Agent-Based Modeling Approach Ecology and Society
Chen, Xiaodong; Department of Geography, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill; chenxd@email.unc.edu; Shortridge, Ashton ; Department of Geography, Michigan State University;; An, Li; Department of Geography, San Diego State University;; Liu, Jianguo; Center for Systems Integration and Sustainability, Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Michigan State University;.
Payments for ecosystem services (PES) have increasingly been implemented to protect and restore ecosystems worldwide. The effectiveness of conservation investments in PES may differ under alternative policy scenarios and may not be sustainable because of uncertainties in human responses to policies and dynamic human-nature interactions. To assess the impacts of these interactions on the effectiveness of PES programs, we developed a spatially explicit agent-based model: human and natural interactions under policies (HANIP). We used HANIP to study the effectiveness of China’s Natural Forest Conservation Program (NFCP) and alternative policy scenarios in a coupled human-nature system, China’s Wolong Nature Reserve, where indigenous...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Agent-based modeling; Conservation investments; Coupled human-nature systems; Fuelwood; Natural Forest Conservation Program; Payments for ecosystem services.
Ano: 2014
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How Smart Should Farms Be Modeled? Behavioral Foundation of Bidding Strategies in Agent-Based Land Market Models AgEcon
Kellermann, Konrad; Balmann, Alfons.
Land markets play a crucial role in agricultural structural change. Because the dynamics of structural change and land markets, respectively, mainly depend on the interactions between individual farms, agent-based modeling (ABM) has been established as a tool for understanding and explaining structural change and land market dynamics. This is particularly so because of ABM's ability to capture heterogeneity, non-convexity and dynamics. Unfortunately, the behavioral foundation of economic actors in ABM, i.e., of the farms, is often specified as ad hoc or simply based on "expert knowledge". In this contribution, the highly-detailed ABM AgriPoliS - which uses a myopic normative behavioral foundation - is coupled with a genetic algorithm (GA) to detect market...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agent-based modeling; Genetic algorithms; Land markets; Behavioral economics; Land Economics/Use; Q12; C6.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25446
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Integrating research tools to support the management of social-ecological systems under climate change Ecology and Society
Miller, Brian W.; Department of the Interior North Central Climate Science Center, Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University; brian.miller@colostate.edu; Morisette, Jeffrey T.; Department of the Interior North Central Climate Science Center, Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University; U.S. Geological Survey; morisettej@usgs.gov.
Developing resource management strategies in the face of climate change is complicated by the considerable uncertainty associated with projections of climate and its impacts and by the complex interactions between social and ecological variables. The broad, interconnected nature of this challenge has resulted in calls for analytical frameworks that integrate research tools and can support natural resource management decision making in the face of uncertainty and complex interactions. We respond to this call by first reviewing three methods that have proven useful for climate change research, but whose application and development have been largely isolated: species distribution modeling, scenario planning, and simulation modeling. Species distribution...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Synthesis Palavras-chave: Agent-based modeling; Complex-adaptive systems; Natural resource management; Scenario planning; Simulations; Species distribution modeling; State-and-transition modeling.
Ano: 2014
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Modeling Social-Ecological Feedback Effects in the Implementation of Payments for Environmental Services in Pasture-Woodlands Ecology and Society
Huber, Robert; Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL; robert.huber@wsl.ch; Briner, Simon; ETH Zurich, Agri-food and Agri-environmental Economics Group, Department of Environmental Systems Science; briners@ethz.ch; Lauber, Stefan; Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL; stefan.lauber@wsl.ch; Seidl, Roman; ETH Zurich, Natural and Social Science Interface, Department of Environmental Systems Science; roman.seidl@env.ethz.ch; Widmer, Alexander; ETH Zurich, Environmental Policy and Economics, Department of Environmental Systems Science; widmeale@env.ethz.ch; Le, Quang Bao; ETH Zurich, Natural and Social Science Interface, Department of Environmental Systems Science; quang.le@env.ethz.ch; Hirschi, Christian; ETH Zurich, Environmental Policy and Economics, Department of Environmental Systems Science; christian.hirschi@env.ethz.ch.
An effective implementation of payment for environmental services (PES) must allow for complex interactions of coupled social-ecological systems. We present an integrative study of the pasture-woodland landscape of the Swiss Jura Mountains combining methods from natural and social sciences to explore feedback between vegetation dynamics on paddock level, farm-based decision making, and policy decisions on the national political level. Our modeling results show that concomitant climatic and socioeconomic changes advance the loss of open grassland in silvopastoral landscapes. This would, in the longer term, deteriorate the historical wooded pastures in the region, which fulfill important functions for biodiversity and are widely considered as landscapes that...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Agent-based modeling; Dynamic modeling; Feedback; Human-environment systems; Integrated study; Payments for environmental services; Policy network analysis.
Ano: 2013
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The declining profitability of litchi orchards in northern Thailand: Can innovations reverse the trend? AgEcon
Schreinemachers, Pepijn; Potchanasin, Chakrit; Berger, Thomas; Roygrong, Sithidech.
Litchi is an important crop in the mountainous part of northern Thailand yet its profitability has declined during the last 15 years. The replacement of litchi fruit orchards for seasonal flowers and vegetables has external costs related to increased levels of soil erosion, pesticides, and irrigation water use. Using a combination of financial analysis and agent-based modeling, the paper ex-ante assesses the impact of four technologies—artificial flower induction, small-scale cooperative fruit drying, post-harvest treatments to extend the shelf-life of fresh fruits, and greater irrigation efficiency—in terms of profits, farm incomes, litchi acreage, soil erosion, and pesticide use. The model was calibrated to one watershed in Chiang Mai province where...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Ex-ante technology assessment; Innovation adoption; Agent-based modeling; Bio-economic models; Consumer/Household Economics; Environmental Economics and Policy; Farm Management; Q12; Q16.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/50954
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The Implications of Skewed Risk Perception for a Dutch Coastal Land Market: Insights from an Agent-Based Computational Economics Model AgEcon
Filatova, Tatiana; Parker, Dawn Cassandra; van der Veen, Anne.
Dutch coastal land markets are characterized by high amenity values but are threatened by potential coastal hazards, leading to high potential damage costs from flooding. Yet, Dutch residents generally perceive low or no flood risk. Using an agent-based land market model and Dutch survey data on risk perceptions and location preferences, this paper explores the patterns of land development and land rents produced by buyers with low, highly skewed risk perceptions. We find that, compared to representative agent and uniform risk perception models, the skewed risk perception distribution produces substantially more, high-valued development in risky coastal zones, potentially creating economically significant risks triggered by the current Dutch flood...
Tipo: Article Palavras-chave: Land markets; Risk perceptions; Agent-based modeling; The Netherlands; Survey; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Environmental Economics and Policy; Land Economics/Use; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/120639
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Understanding the Mechanisms of Collective Decision Making in Ecological Restoration: An Agent-Based Model of Actors and Organizations Ecology and Society
Watkins, Cristy; The Field Museum, Chicago, Illinois, USA; cwatkins@fieldmuseum.org; Massey, Dean; University of Illinois at Chicago; dmasse2@uic.edu; Brooks, Jeremy; University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign; brooksj@illinois.edu; Ross, Kristen; University of Illinois at Chicago; kaross73@uic.edu; Zellner, Moira L.; University of Illinois at Chicago; mzellner@uic.edu.
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Agent-based modeling; Chicago Wilderness; Collective decision making; Ecological restoration.
Ano: 2013
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Using Coupled Simulation Models to Link Pastoral Decision Making and Ecosystem Services Ecology and Society
Boone, Randall B; Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory and the Department of Forestry, Rangeland, and Watershed Stewardship, Colorado State University; rboone@nrel.colostate.edu; Galvin, Kathleen A; Department of Anthropology and the Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University; kathy@nrel.colostate.edu; BurnSilver, Shauna B; Agricultural and Forestry Experiment Station, University of Alaska; sbburnsilver@alaska.edu; Thornton, Philip K; International Livestock Research Institute; University of Edinburgh; P.Thornton@cgiar.org; Ojima, Dennis S; Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory and the Department of Forestry, Rangeland, and Watershed Stewardship, Colorado State University; dennis@nrel.colostate.edu; Jawson, Jacob R; Department of Forestry, Rangeland, and Watershed Stewardship, Colorado State University; jjawson@emailisgood.com.
Historically, pastoral people were able to more freely use the services their semi-arid and arid ecosystems provide, and they adapted to changes in ways that improved their well-being. More recently, their ability to adapt has been constrained due to changes from within and from outside their communities. To compare possible responses by pastoral communities, we modeled ecosystem services and tied those services to decisions that people make at the household level. We created an agent-based household model called DECUMA, joined that model with the ecosystem model SAVANNA, and applied the linked models to southeastern Kajiado District, Kenya. The structure of the new agent-based model and linkages between the models are described, and then we demonstrate...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Agent-based modeling; DECUMA household model; Ecosystem services; Livestock; Maasai; Mobility; Pastoral decision making; SAVANNA ecosystem model.
Ano: 2011
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WINNERS AND LOSERS OF POLICY CHANGES – WHAT IS THE ROLE OF STRUCTURAL CHANGE? AgEcon
Sahrbacher, Christoph; Kellermann, Konrad; Balmann, Alfons.
In this paper several decoupling options are evaluated concerning their impact on structural change especially on farm incomes and their surviving. Therefore, the agent-based model AgriPoliS was used and extended to account the income of leaving farms. This enables the comparison of future incomes of leaving and surviving farms to find out whether leaving farms are losers or not. The disaggregated analysis of farms’ household incomes showed that leaving farmers even benefit from their decision in case that enough off-farm jobs are available. Losers are farms that would have left agriculture under conditions of the Agenda 2000. After decoupling they stay in the sector and cannot increase their income as much as under Agenda conditions. Furthermore, the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Structural change; Decoupling; Agent-based modeling; Common Agricultural Policy; Agricultural and Food Policy; Consumer/Household Economics; Farm Management.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6472
Registros recuperados: 12
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