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Accounting for Heterogeneity in Hedging Behavior: Comparing & Evaluating Grouping Methods AgEcon
Pennings, Joost M.E.; Garcia, Philip; Irwin, Scott H..
Heterogeneity, i.e., the notion that individuals respond differently to economic stimuli, can have profound consequences for the interpretation of behavior and the formulation of agricultural policy. This paper compares and evaluates three grouping techniques that can be used to account for heterogeneity in financial behavior. Two are well established: company-type grouping and cluster analysis. A third, the generalized mixture regression model, has recently been developed and is worth considering as market participants are grouped such that their response to the determinants of economic behavior is similar. We evaluate the grouping methods in a hedging framework by assessing their ability to reflect relationships consistent with theory. The empirical...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Economic behavior; Heterogeneity; Hedging; Methods; Risk and Uncertainty; A10; B40; C1; D0; G0; L2; Q13.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114787
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Adaptive Experimental Design Using the Propensity Score AgEcon
Hahn, Jinyong; Hirano, Keisuke; Karlan, Dean S..
Many social experiments are run in multiple waves, or are replications of earlier social experiments. In principle, the sampling design can be modified in later stages or replications to allow for more efficient estimation of causal effects. We consider the design of a two-stage experiment for estimating an average treatment effect, when covariate information is available for experimental subjects. We use data from the first stage to choose a conditional treatment assignment rule for units in the second stage of the experiment. This amounts to choosing the propensity score, the conditional probability of treatment given covariates. We propose to select the propensity score to minimize the asymptotic variance bound for estimating the average treatment...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Experimental design; Propensity score; Efficiency bound; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; C1; C14; C9; C93; C13.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/47107
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Collinearity in Linear Structural Models of Market Power AgEcon
Perloff, Jeffrey M.; Shen, Edward Z..
The well-known structural model used to estimate market structure suffers from a severe collinearity problem if the marginal cost and demand equations are linear.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Market power; Estimation; Demand and Price Analysis; Industrial Organization; L13; C1.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25012
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Conditional Skewness of Aggregate Market Returns AgEcon
Charoenrook, Anchada; Daouk, Hazem.
The skewness of the conditional return distribution plays a significant role in financial theory and practice. This paper examines whether conditional skewness of daily aggregate market returns is predictable and investigates the economic mechanisms underlying this predictability. In both developed and emerging markets, there is strong evidence that lagged returns predict skewness; returns are more negatively skewed following an increase in stock prices and returns are more positively skewed following a decrease in stock prices. The empirical evidence shows that the traditional explanations such as the leverage effect, the volatility feedback effect, the stock bubble model (Blanchard and Watson, 1982), and the fluctuating uncertainty theory (Veronesi,...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Conditional skewness; Conditional Volatility; Predicting Skewness; Aggregate market returns; International finance; Financial Economics; Marketing; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; G12; C1.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51181
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Do Economic Restrictions Improve Forecasts? AgEcon
Murphy, Elizabeth A.; Norwood, F. Bailey; Wohlgenant, Michael K..
A previous study showed that imposing economic restrictions improves the forecasting ability of food demand systems, thus warranting their use even when they are rejected in-sample. This article evaluates whether this result is due to economic restrictions enhancing degrees of freedom or containing nonsample information. Results indicate that restrictions improve forecasting ability even when they are not derived from economic theory, but theoretical restrictions forecast best.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Demand systems; Economic restrictions; Forecasting; Representative consumer; B4; C1; C3; C5.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43447
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Energy Access Scenarios to 2030 for the Power Sector in Sub-Saharan Africa AgEcon
Bazilian, Morgan; Nussbaumer, Patrick; Rogner, Hans-Holger; Brew-Hammond, Abeeku; Foster, Vivien; Kammen, Daniel M.; Pachauri, Shonali; Eric, Williams; Howells, Mark; Niyongabo, Philippe; Musaba, Lawrence; O Gallachoir, Brian; Radka, Mark.
In order to reach a goal of universal access to modern energy services in Africa by 2030, consideration of various electricity sector pathways is required to help inform policy-makers and investors, and help guide power system design. To that end, and building on existing tools and analysis, we present several ‘high-level’, transparent, and economy-wide scenarios for the sub-Saharan African power sector to 2030. We construct these simple scenarios against the backdrop of historical trends and various interpretations of universal access. They are designed to provide the international community with an indication of the overall scale of the effort required. We find that most existing projections, using typical long-term forecasting methods for power...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Energy Access; Power System Planning; Sub-Saharan Africa; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; C1; Q41; Q47.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/116904
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Entrepreneurial Communities in Rural Oklahoma AgEcon
Brooks, Lara; Whitacre, Brian E.; Muske, Glenn; Woods, Michael D..
This paper studies “entrepreneurial communities” using both quantitative and qualitative data from the state of Oklahoma. Household-level survey data and community-specific characteristics are used to determine what factors affect whether a rural community operates in an entrepreneurial manner. Case studies from successful rural communities provide a more qualitative viewpoint of the factors that lead to entrepreneurial activity.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Entrepreneurship; Communities; Rural development; Community/Rural/Urban Development; R11; O18; C1.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6829
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Factors Influencing the Temporal Diffusion of Broadband Adoption: Evidence from Oklahoma AgEcon
Whitacre, Brian E..
This paper examines the shifting influence of household characteristics and telecommunications infrastructure on the residential broadband adoption decision for Oklahoma residents between 2003 and 2006. In particular, the spread of wired telecommunications infrastructure (namely cable Internet and Digital Subscriber Lines (DSL)) is examined, along with the effect that this diffusion has had on broadband access rates. The data indicates that the gap in broadband access rates between rural and urban areas has remained relatively constant over this period despite increased levels of cable and DSL throughout the state. In addition, an inter-temporal decomposition shows that the increasing levels of infrastructure are not the dominant cause of higher broadband...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Broadband; Internet; Temporal Diffusion; Public Economics; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; R11; O18; C1.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6934
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Improved Program Planning Approaches Generates Large Benefits in High Risk Crop Farming AgEcon
Musshoff, Oliver; Hirschauer, Norbert.
This paper examines whether there is room for the improvement of farm program decisions through the incorporation of mathematical optimization in the practical planning process. Probing the potential for improvement, we investigate the cases of four German cash crop farms over the last six years. The formal planning approach includes a systematic time series analysis of farmspecific single gross margins and a stochastic optimization model. In order to avoid solutions that simply exceed the farmer’'s risk tolerance, the apparently accepted variance of the observed program’'s total gross margin which represents an observable reflection of the individual farmer'’s risk attitude is used as an upper bound in the optimization. For each of the 24 planning...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Production program planning; Optimization; Uncertainty; Static distributions; Stochastic processes; Crop Production/Industries; C1; C61; M11; Q12.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10442
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Maturities, Nonlinearities, and the International Transmission of Short-Term Interest Rates AgEcon
Mougoue, Mbodja; Noula, Armand Gilbert; Ajayi, Richard A..
This paper employs linear and nonlinear Granger causality tests to re-examine the dynamic relation between daily Eurodollar and U.S. certificates of deposit rates during the July 16, 1973 to May 1, 2006 period. This study also conducts sub-period analysis based on the switching regression technique of Goldfield and Quant (GQSRT) (1972, 1973, and 1976). The main empirical findings are (1) Full-sample results show significant bi-directional linear causality from the CD and CD interest rates for one-month maturities and unidirectional linear causality between the EURO and CD interest rates for three-month and six-month maturities. Furthermore, full-sample results reveal for all three maturities. (2) Sub-sample results based on linear tests show a...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Eurodollar interest rates; CD interest rates; Linear and nonlinear causality; Financial market integration; Farm Management; International Relations/Trade; F3; C1.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/50009
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Metro, Micro, and Non-Core: A 3-year Portrait of Broadband Supply and Demand in Oklahoma AgEcon
Whitacre, Brian E..
Rural communities suffer from both supply and demand-side disadvantages when dealing with Internet access. Telecommunications companies are less likely to provide them with needed infrastructure due to lower population densities, and they also tend to have lower levels of specific factors known to influence the access decision such as education and income. This study looks at the broadband Internet setting in Oklahoma over a 3-year period, examining the diffusion of both infrastructure and access rates. A non-linear decomposition technique allows for measurement of how specific characteristics, including the availability of infrastructure, contribute to observed metropolitan – micropolitan or metropolitan – noncore “digital divides.” The results...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Broadband; Internet; Diffusion; Rural; Community/Rural/Urban Development; R11; O18; C1.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/55929
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Socioeconomic Determinants of Disease Transmission in Cambodia AgEcon
Deolalikar, Anil B.; Laxminarayan, Ramanan.
The process of acquiring an infection has two components: first, exposure through proximity to another infected individual, and second, transmission of the disease. Earlier studies of the socioeconomic factors that affect the probability of acquiring an illness assume uniform exposure to infected individuals and may therefore result in biased estimates. This paper develops an empirical model, consistent with epidemiological models of spread of infections, to estimate the impact of socioeconomic variables on the extent of disease transmission within villages in Cambodia. Data from the 1997 Cambodia Socioeconomic Survey are used in this analysis.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Disease transmission; Sanitation; Infection; Public health; Health Economics and Policy; C1; I1; O1.
Ano: 2000 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10695
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Sophisticated Program Planning Approaches Generate Large Benefits in High Risk Crop Farming AgEcon
Musshoff, Oliver; Hirschauer, Norbert.
Agricultural production relies to a great extent on biological processes in natural environments. In addition to volatile prices, it is thus heavily exposed to risks caused by the variability of natural conditions such as rainfall, temperature and pests. With a view to the apparently lacking support of risky farm production program decisions through formal planning models, the objective of this paper is to examine whether, and eventually by how much, farmers’ “intuitive” program decisions can be improved through formal statistical analyses and stochastic optimization models. In this performance comparison, we use the results of the formal planning approach that are generated in a quasi ex-ante analysis as a normative benchmark for the empirically observed...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Stochastic optimization; Stochastic processes; Production risk; Program planning; Time series analysis; C1; C61; M11; Q12.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/36865
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Trip-Level Analysis of Efficiency Changes in Oregon's Deepwater Trawl Fishery AgEcon
Tomberlin, David; Holloway, Garth J..
In 2003, an industry-financed, government-administered buyback of trawl fishing permits and vessels took place on the US West Coast, resulting in the retirement of about one-third of the limited-entry trawl fleet. The lack of cost data in this fishery precludes an analysis of how the buyback has affected profitability, but changes in technical efficiency can provide some insight into the program's effects. This paper, the first of a planned series of analyses of the buyback's effect on technical efficiency in the trawl fleet, applies stochastic frontier analysis to assess whether technical efficiency changed perceptibly after 2003. We adopt a hierarchical modeling approach estimated with Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, and present results from both...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Fishery Buyback; Technical Efficiency; Stochastic Production Frontier; Bayesian Inference; Markov Chain Monte Carlo; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q2; L5; C1.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8223
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Vector Autoregressions, Policy Analysis, and Directed Acyclic Graphs: An Application to the U.S. Economy AgEcon
Awokuse, Titus O.; Bessler, David A..
The paper considers the use of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs), and their construction from observational data with PC-algorithm TETRAD II, in providing over-identifying restrictions on the innovations from a vector autoregression. Results from Sims’ 1986 model of the US economy are replicated and compared using these data-driven techniques. The directed graph results show Sims’ six-variable VAR is not rich enough to provide an unambiguous ordering at usual levels of statistical significance. A significance level in the neighborhood of 30 % is required to find a clear structural ordering. Although the DAG results are in agreement with Sims’ theory-based model for unemployment, differences are noted for the other five variables: income, money supply, price...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Vector autoregression; Directed graphs; Policy analysis; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; C1; E1.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44001
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Volatile world market prices for dairy products - how do they affect domestic price formation: The German cheese market AgEcon
Weber, Sascha A.; Salamon, Petra; Hansen, Heiko.
Since the stepwise reduction of intervention prices combined with watered down conditions and suspended export refunds, respectively, the EU dairy industry faces new challenges regarding wild price fluctuations originally caused in third countries. In the past, the EU domestic market was insulated as far as possible from world markets. However, today global prices could affect prices even at the level of consumers, but more directly at the level milk producers. Volatility noticeable increased with the price peak in 2007, followed by the drop in 2008, and a new price boost in 2010. Additionally, reduced security in marketing of butter and skimmed milk powder led to higher processing share of cheese which is not only exported but also increasingly consumed...
Tipo: Presentation Palavras-chave: Price transmission; Cointegration; Granger-causality; Dairy; Risk and Uncertainty; C1; E3; E6; F3; Q1.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122542
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