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Registros recuperados: 16
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An Econometric Analysis of Price Dynamics in the Presence of a Price Floor: The Case of American Cheese AgEcon
Chavas, Jean-Paul; Kim, Kwansoo.
In this paper, we present an econometric analysis for the effects of a price floor on price dynamics and price volatility. A price floor (implemented as a part of government pricing policy) provides a censoring mechanism for price determination. We specify and estimate a dynamic Tobit model under time-varying volatility. The model is applied to analyze the effects of a price support program on price dynamics and price volatility in the U.S. American cheese market. The econometric analysis provides useful insights on price dynamics in the presence of a government-determined price floor.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Censored regression; Market liberalization; Model selection; Price dynamics; Price volatility; Demand and Price Analysis; Q0; D4; C5.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43628
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Do Economic Restrictions Improve Forecasts? AgEcon
Murphy, Elizabeth A.; Norwood, F. Bailey; Wohlgenant, Michael K..
A previous study showed that imposing economic restrictions improves the forecasting ability of food demand systems, thus warranting their use even when they are rejected in-sample. This article evaluates whether this result is due to economic restrictions enhancing degrees of freedom or containing nonsample information. Results indicate that restrictions improve forecasting ability even when they are not derived from economic theory, but theoretical restrictions forecast best.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Demand systems; Economic restrictions; Forecasting; Representative consumer; B4; C1; C3; C5.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43447
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ECONOMETRIC-PROCESS MODELS FOR INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION SYSTEMS AgEcon
Antle, John M.; Capalbo, Susan Marie.
This paper develops the conceptual and empirical basis for a class of empirical economic production models that can be linked to site-specific bio-physical models for use in integrated assessment research. Site-specific data are used to estimate econometric production models, and these data and models are then incorporated into a simulation model that represents the decision making process of the farmer as a sequence of discrete or continuous land use and input use decisions. This discrete/continuous structure of the econometric process model is able to simulate decision making both within and outside the range of observed data in a way that is consistent with economic theory and with site-specific bio-physical constraints and processes. An...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Bio-physical models; Integrated assessment; Production models; Dryland grain production; Econometric-process models; Production Economics; C5; Q1; Q2.
Ano: 2000 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/29234
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European Trade Integration in the Baltic Sea Region - A Gravity Model Based Analysis AgEcon
Paas, Tiiu; Tafenau, Egle.
The paper explores regional trade integration of the countries involved in the EU eastward enlargement (EU-25) processes distinguishing the possible regional trade clusters within EU-25 that may support integration of the EU-15 and the new member states. We examine whether the gravity equation based on the new trade theory describes trade integration of the EU-25 countries, and whether the results of a gravity model based analysis may be different in the case of the Baltic Sea region (BSR). The gravity models are estimated based on panel data for the years 1993 to 2002. The results of our analysis indicate that the BSR is forming an exception within EU-25. The BSR trade cannot be explained as much with New Trade Theories as in the case of the whole EU. The...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Gravity models; International trade; Regional integration; Baltic Sea region; International Relations/Trade; F15; R1; C5.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/26263
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Evaluating Crop and Revenue Insurance Products as Risk Management Tools for Texas Cotton Producers AgEcon
Field, James E.; Misra, Sukant K.; Ramirez, Octavio A..
This paper develops and illustrates the application of a procedure to evaluate and compare the cost effectiveness of alternative crop insurance products for cotton in terms of their effect on expected producer net returns and the variation of net returns. Farm unit-level cotton yields and state-level price distributions are estimated by a multivariate nonnormal parametric modeling procedure and used to simulate the net returns to alternative crop insurance products over a 10-year planning horizon. The ranking of alternative insurance products using third-degree stochastic dominance is presented for Texas cotton producers.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Cotton; Crop insurance; Multivariate nonnormal parametric modeling; Stochastic dominance; C5; Q1.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37314
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Evaluation of the Resistance of Transgenic C5 Plum (Prunus domestica L.) against Four Chilean Plum Pox Virus Isolates through Micro-Grafting Chilean J. Agric. Res.
Wong,Wendy; Barba,Paola; Álvarez,Catalina; Castro,Álvaro; Acuña,Manuel; Zamora,Pablo; Rosales,Marlene; Dell´Orto,Paola; Moynihan,Michael R; Scorza,Ralph; Prieto,Humberto.
The transgenic plum (Prunus domestica L.) C5, in which the coat protein (CP) gene of the Plum pox virus (PPV) is inserted, represents a unique example of the use of genetic engineering for fruit crop improvement in Prunus spp. Field trials in Poland, Romania, and Spain have demonstrated resistance of C5 to several D and M strain PPV isolates. In Chile, the quarantine regulations for PPV and for genetically modified (GM) plants require that the testing of C5 for resistance to Chilean PPV isolates be done under controlled isolated conditions. To carry out these tests C5 shoots were multiplied in vitro and micro-grafted onto four Adesoto101 (Prunus insititia L.) rootstock populations that had been previously infected each with one of four Chilean PPV-Ds....
Tipo: Journal article Palavras-chave: C5; Chilean isolates; Micro-grafting.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0718-58392010000300004
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Farmers’ Choice and Informal Credit Markets in China AgEcon
Yuan, Yan; Hu, Youxin; Gao, Ping.
Informal credit markets are very active in many developing countries including China. Informal financial associations have become a major channel of borrowing. Using data from the 2006 Rural Household Survey, this paper investigates farmers’ borrowings from both formal and informal sources with higher/lower interest, by looking into both demand and supply of loan. Consistent with the theory and previous studies, age follows an inverted U-shaped pattern in its relationship with the probability of borrowing from informal loan with higher interest. Our study shows that the impact of age disappears for the formal loan participation. In addition, high income and saving imply lower credit constraints. Moreover, household and county characteristics and financial...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Informal credit; Financial constraints; China; Agricultural Finance; Community/Rural/Urban Development; International Development; Q12; C5; G21.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103887
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Innovation Behaviour At Farm Level – Selection And Identification AgEcon
Sauer, Johannes; Zilberman, David.
Using a squential logit model and a mixed-effects logistic regression approach this empirical study investigates factors for the adoption of automatic milking technology (AMS) at the farm level accounting for problems of sequential sample selection and behaviour identification. The results suggest the importance of the farmer’s risk perception, significant effects of peer-group behaviour, and a positive impact of previous innovation experiences.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Innovation; Dairy Farming; Sample Selection; Mixed-Effects Modelling.; Marketing; D21; Q12; C5.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51073
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Leading Economic Determinants of Foreign Trade Volume in Turkish Agriculture Sector AgEcon
Ozun, Alper; Turk, Mehmet.
We empirically analyze the main economic factors affecting the export and import levels in Turkish agriculture sector. Using monthly time series of certain domestic and international variables, we make three complementary analysis; namely, principal component analysis, causality and co-integration analysis, and multivariate GARCH analysis. The empirical findings point out the fact that foreign trade volume in Turkish agriculture sector is statistically in relation with agricultural production, consumer price index, market capitalization of the firms, and international agriculture prices.
Tipo: Article Palavras-chave: Turkish agriculture sector; Foreign trade; Principal component analysis; Multivariate GARCH; Agricultural and Food Policy; Q14; 024; C5.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/118579
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Local Geography of Row-Crop Quality Land and Cropland Cash Rental Rates AgEcon
Du, Xiaodong; Hennessy, David A..
While farmland rental markets are likely to be spatially differentiated, the fine spatial structure of row-crop quality land should have a significant effect on cash rent determination. This study provides a rigorous empirical understanding of the effect of land spatial heterogeneity on cash rental rates. The lacunarity index is employed to measure spatial heterogeneity of land quality, which is built directly upon a soil quality measure, the land parcel’s corn suitability rating index (CSR). A panel data random effect model is applied on annual survey data of farmland cash rental rates of Iowa for 1987-2009. As expected, land spatial heterogeneity has a statistically significant and negative effect on local cash rent rates. The effect’s origin warrants...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Land spatial heterogeneity; Rental market; Agricultural Finance; C5; G1; Q1.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103450
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On the Realized Volatility of the ECX CO2 Emissions 2008 Futures Contract: Distribution, Dynamics and Forecasting AgEcon
Chevallier, Julien; Benoit, Sevi.
The recent implementation of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) in January 2005 created new financial risks for emitting firms. To deal with these risks, options are traded since October 2006. Because the EU ETS is a new market, the relevant underlying model for option pricing is still a controversial issue. This article improves our understanding of this issue by characterizing the conditional and unconditional distributions of the realized volatility for the 2008 futures contract in the European Climate Exchange (ECX), which is valid during Phase II (2008-2012) of the EU ETS. The realized volatility measures from naive, kernel-based and subsampling estimators are used to obtain inferences about the distributional and dynamic properties of the ECX...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: CO2 Price; Realized Volatility; HAR-RV; GARCH; Futures Trading; Emissions Markets; EU ETS; Intraday data; Forecasting; Environmental Economics and Policy; C5; G1; Q4.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/55834
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Prognoseleistung von Fruhindikatoren: Die Bedeutung von Fruhindikatoren fur Konjunk-turprognosen - Eine Analyse fur Deutschland AgEcon
Hinze, Jorg.
Das Papier untersucht die Rolle von Frühindikatoren bei der Erstellung von Konjunkturprognosen. Gegenstand der Analyse sind die Fragen: Welche Kriterien sollten Frühindikatoren generell erfüllen bzw. was sollten Frühindikatoren leisten? Inwieweit erfüllen die gängigen Indikatoren diese Anforderungen? Wie ist die Prognosegüte der verschiedenen Frühindikatoren zu beurteilen? Die theoretischen Überlegungen und ökonometrischen Untersuchungen kommen zu dem Ergebnis, dass die gängigen Frühindikatoren die in sie gesetzten Erwartungen nur eingeschränkt erfüllen können. Der Verlauf einzelner Frühindikatoren lässt keine eindeutigen Schlußfolgerungen auf die reale Wirtschaftsentwicklung zu und der Vorlauf der Frühindikatoren vor der realen Entwicklung beträgt...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Konjunktur; Wirtschaftspolitik; Agricultural and Food Policy; C3; C5; E1; E3.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/26253
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Regional Integration and International Trade in the Context of EU Eastward Enlargement AgEcon
Paas, Tiiu.
The paper aims to explore international trade flows of the countries involved in the EU eastward enlargement processes - the current EU members (EU15) and the candidate countries (CC12). The empirical results of the study allow us to conclude that the behaviour of bilateral trade flows within the countries involved in EU eastward enlargement accords to the normal rules of gravitation, having statistically significant spatial biases caused by the trade relations, between the Baltic Sea Region (BSR) countries (the BSR bias), the border countries (the border bias) and the EU member and candidate countries (the East-West bias). The East-West trade relations are still rather weakly developed and there is a statistically significant difference in international...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: EU enlargement; The Baltic Sea Region; Integration; International trade; Gravity models; International Relations/Trade; F15; C5; R15.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/26223
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Testing the Order of Integration with Low Power Tests. An Application to Argentine Macro-variables AgEcon
Carrera, Jorge Eduardo; Feliz, Mariano; Panigo, Demian.
The low power of available econometric tests is an important problem in applied research on unit roots and related issues. Based on the principle of methodological triangulation, the problem should be analyzed from different points of view in order to increase the validity of the results. Following this approach a strategy to test the order of integration in time series is presented using a sequence of eleven consolidated tests. In this way it is possible to determine the persistence of shocks, to specify the best strategy for trend-cycle decomposition and to obtain additional information useful for public policies. As an application of the methodology, the integration properties in the main 14 Argentine macroeconomic variables are studied. A...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Unit root; Persistence; Cycles; Structural breaks; Argentine macroeconomic variables; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; C3; C5; E3.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43989
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The Impact of Global Warming on U.S. Agriculture: An Econometric Analysis of Optimal Growing Conditions AgEcon
Schlenker, Wolfram; Hanemann, W. Michael; Fisher, Anthony C..
We link farmland values to climatic, soil, and socioeconomic variables for counties east of the 100th meridian, the historic boundary of agriculture not primarily dependent on irrigation. Degree days, a non-linear transformation of the climatic variables suggested by agronomic experiments as more relevant to crop yield gives an improved fit and increased robustness. Estimated coefficients are consistent with the experimental results. The model is employed to estimate the potential impacts on farmland values for a range of recent warming scenarios. The predictions are very robust and more than 75% of the counties in our sample show a statistically significant effect, ranging from moderate gains to large losses, with losses in the aggregate that can become...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Environmental Economics and Policy; Land Economics/Use; Q1; Q2; C5.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25094
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Tobit regression to estimate impact of EU market intervention in dairy sector AgEcon
Wocken, Meike; Kneib, Thomas.
This study examines the effect of European intervention politics in the European butter market in the context of market liberalization using the example of Germany. A heteroscedastic Tobit model is estimated using German butter market data from 1973-2010. There is evidence that price support has reduced price instability in the butter market. Simulation indicates that enhancing intervention price causes an increase in the expected butter price in the long-run, even though if market price is higher than intervention level. We find changing effects of stockpiling. If difference between market and intervention price is small and stock quantity is high, it significantly contributes to reducing price volatility. On the contrary if price difference is large and...
Tipo: Presentation Palavras-chave: Censored regression; Market liberalization; Butter market; Agricultural and Food Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; C5; D4; Q11..
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122528
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