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A mixed-method approach for determining the risk and complexity farmers associate with using forward contracts AgEcon
Jackson, Elizabeth; Quaddus, Mohammed; Islam, Nazrul; Stanton, John.
This paper reports on a model that was developed to understand the behavioural determinants surrounding farmers’ adoption of forward contracts for agricultural commodities. Based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour and Diffusion of Innovations, 28 hypotheses within the model were written and then tested via a telephone survey that gathered 305 responses from Western Australian wool producers. The data from the telephone survey were analysed using SPSS 14 and the Partial Least Squares approach to Structural Equation Modelling. Most relationships within the model could be explained after rigorous quantitative analysis, however, further explanation was required to understand two final aspects of adoption behaviour: firstly, the sources of risk wool...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Risk; Complexity; Forward contracts; Structural equation modelling; Partial least squares; Risk and Uncertainty; Q120; Q130.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42305
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A sense of change: media designers and artists communicating about complexity in social-ecological systems Ecology and Society
Vervoort, Joost M.; Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford; Soil Geography and Landscape group, Wageningen University; Alterra; joost.vervoort@eci.ox.ac.uk; Keuskamp, Diederik H.; Institute for Interdisciplinary Studies, University of Amsterdam; d.h.keuskamp@uva.nl; Kok, Kasper; Soil Geography and Landscape group, Wageningen University; Kasper.Kok@wur.nl; van Lammeren, Ron; Laboratory for Geo-information Science and Remote Sensing, Wageningen University; ron.vanlammeren@wur.nl; Stolk, Taconis; ArtScience Interfaculty, Royal Arts Academy; tawstolk@wlfr.nl; Veldkamp, Tom (A.); Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation, University of Twente; veldkamp@itc.nl; Rekveld, Joost; ArtScience Interfaculty, Royal Academy of Art; joost.rekveld@interfaculty.nl; Schelfhout, Ronald; ArtScience Interfaculty, Royal Academy of Arts; ronaldschelfhout@gmail.com; Teklenburg, Bart; ArtScience Interfaculty, Royal Academy of Arts; bartje2012@hotmail.com; Cavalheiro Borges, Andre; ArtScience Interfaculty, Royal Academy of Arts; cavalheiroacb@gmail.com; Wits, Willem; ArtScience Interfaculty, Royal Academy of Arts; willem_wits@hotmail.com; Assmann, Nicky; ArtScience Interfaculty, Royal Academy of Arts; info@nickyassmann.net; Abdi Dezfouli, Erfan; ArtScience Interfaculty, Royal Academy of Arts; info@erfanabdi.com; Cunningham, Kate; ArtScience Interfaculty, Royal Academy of Arts; kecunning@gmail.com; Nordeman, Berend; Media Technology, Leiden University; berend@nordeman.nl; Rowlands, Hannah; Oxford Martin School Programme for the Future of Food, University of Oxford; hannah.rowlands@zoo.ox.ac.uk.
To take on the current and future challenges of global environmental change, fostering a widespread societal understanding of and engagement with the complex dynamics that characterize interacting human and natural systems is essential. Current science communication methods struggle with a number of specific challenges associated with communicating about complex systems. In this study we report on two collaborative processes, a short workshop and longer course, that aimed to harness the insights of interactive media designers and artists to overcome these challenges. The two processes resulted in 86 new interactive media concepts which were selected by the participants and organizers using set criteria and then evaluated using the same criteria by a panel...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Communication; Complexity; Participation; Scale; Serious gaming; Social-ecological systems.
Ano: 2014
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A systemic framework for context-based decision making in natural resource management: reflections on an integrative assessment of water and livelihood security outcomes following policy reform in South Africa Ecology and Society
Pollard, Sharon; The Association for Water and Rural Development; sharon@award.org.za; Biggs, Harry; SANParks; Harry.Biggs@sanparks.org; Du Toit, Derick R; The Association for Water and Rural Development; derick@award.org.za.
We aimed to contribute to the field of natural resource management (NRM) by introducing an alternative systemic context-based framework for planning, research, and decision making, which we expressed practically in the development of a decision-making “tool” or method. This holistic framework was developed in the process of studying a specific catchment area, i.e., the Sand River Catchment, but we have proposed that it can be generalized to studying the complexities of other catchment areas. Using the lens of systemic resilience to think about dynamic and complex environments differently, we have reflected on the development of a systemic framework for understanding water and livelihood security under transformation in postapartheid...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Complexity; Decision making; Dynamic; Governance; IWRM; Livelihood security; Resilience; SES; Social-ecological systems; Transdisciplinarity; Transformation.
Ano: 2014
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Addressing complexity and uncertainty: conceptual models and expert judgments applied to migratory birds in the oil sands of Canada Ecology and Society
Nelitz, Marc A; ESSA Technologies Ltd.; mnelitz@essa.com; Beardmore, Ben; Beardmore Consulting LLC; Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources; Alan.Beardmore@wisconsin.gov; Machtans, Craig S; Canadian Wildlife Service, Environment Canada; Craig.Machtans@ec.gc.ca; Hall, Alexander W; ESSA Technologies Ltd.; ahall@essa.com; Wedeles, Chris; ArborVitae Environmental Services Ltd.; chris@avesltd.ca.
Complexity and uncertainty are inherent in social-ecological systems. Although they can create challenges for scientists and decision makers, they cannot be a reason for delaying decision making. Two strategies have matured in recent decades to address these challenges. Systems thinking, as embodied by conceptual modeling, is a holistic approach in which a system can be better understood by examining it as a whole. Expert elicitation represents a second strategy that enables a greater diversity of inputs to understand complex systems. We explored the use of conceptual models and expert judgments to inform expansion of monitoring around oil sands development in northern Alberta, Canada, particularly related to migratory forest birds. This study area is a...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Complexity; Conceptual modeling; Expert judgment; Migratory birds; Oil sands; Uncertainty.
Ano: 2015
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Alkalmazkodás a klímaváltozáshoz AgEcon
Gazdag, Laszlo.
A várható változásokkal szemben nem védekezni kell, hanem alkalmazkodni. A klímaváltozás is ilyen kihívást jelent. Aki gyorsan és jól alkalmazkodik, az előnybe kerül másokkal szemben. Be kell rendezkednünk a növekvő időjárási amplitúdók, a szélsőséges körülmények közötti eredményes gazdálkodásra. Az első lépés az érdekviszonyok radikális átalakítása! Előnyben részesíteni mindazon technikai-technológiai fejlesztéseket, amelyek a sikeres alkalmazkodást szolgálják. Eltörölni mindenfajta vízdíjat és hasonló költségnövelő tényezőt, amit az öntözési és/vagy halastavi célú felhasználásra vet ki az állam. Kamatkedvezménnyel és más úton ösztönözni az öntözési infrastruktúra fejlesztését, az öntözési tevékenység végzését. A komplex megoldások preferálása, melyek...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Érdekeltség; Alkalmazkodás; Komplexitás; Rugalmasság; Technológia; Interest; Adaptation; Complexity; Flexibility; Technology; Agricultural and Food Policy; Environmental Economics and Policy; Production Economics.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/92417
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An Emergent Economics of Ecosystem Management AgEcon
Hearnshaw, Edward J.S.; Cullen, Ross; Hughey, Kenneth F.D..
Economics is an evolving and emerging field of study, so is the management of ecosystems. As such, this paper delineates the co-evolution of economic evaluation that reflects the various recognized ecosystem management approaches of anticipative, adaptive and capacitive ecosystem management. Each management approach is critiqued and from this theoretical analysis an emergent approach for the management of ecosystem is put forward, which accordingly suggests an alternative methodological approach for economic evaluations.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Complexity; Creativity; Economic evaluation; Ecosystem management; Evolution; Open systems; Rationality; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31957
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Anticipating future risk in social-ecological systems using fuzzy cognitive mapping: the case of wildfire in the Chiquitania, Bolivia Ecology and Society
Devisscher, Tahia; Environmental Change Institute‬, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford; Stockholm Environment Institute; tahia.devisscher@ouce.ox.ac.uk; Boyd, Emily; Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, University of Reading; Lund University Centre for Sustainability Studies; emily.boyd@reading.ac.uk; Malhi, Yadvinder; Environmental Change Institute‬, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford; yadvinder.malhi@ouce.ox.ac.uk.
Understanding complex social-ecological systems, and anticipating how they may respond to rapid change, requires an approach that incorporates environmental, social, economic, and policy factors, usually in a context of fragmented data availability. We employed fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) to integrate these factors in the assessment of future wildfire risk in the Chiquitania region, Bolivia. In this region, dealing with wildfires is becoming increasingly challenging because of reinforcing feedbacks between multiple drivers. We conducted semistructured interviews and constructed different FCMs in focus groups to understand the regional dynamics of wildfire from diverse perspectives. We used FCM modelling to evaluate possible adaptation scenarios in the...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Adaptation; Climate change; Complexity; Scenario; Social-ecological system; Uncertainty; Wildfire risk.
Ano: 2016
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Applied research for enhancing human well-being and environmental stewardship: using complexity thinking in Southern Africa Ecology and Society
Palmer, Carolyn G.; Unilever Centre for Environmental Water Quality, Institute for Water Research, Rhodes University, South Africa; tally.palmer@ru.ac.za; Biggs, Reinette; Stockholm Resilience Centre, Sweden; Centre for Studies in Complexity, Stellenbosch University, South Africa; oonsie.biggs@stockholmresilience.su.se; Cumming, Graeme S.; Percy FitzPatrick Institute, University of Cape Town, South Africa; graeme.cumming@uct.ac.za.
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed article Palavras-chave: Complexity; Relational; Stewardship; Sufficiency; Well-being.
Ano: 2015
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Approximate Entropy as a measure of complexity in sap flow temporal dynamics of two tropical tree species under water deficit Anais da ABC (AABC)
Souza,Gustavo M.; Ribeiro,Rafael V.; Santos,Mauro G.; Ribeiro,Henrique L.; Oliveira,Ricardo F..
Approximate Entropy (ApEn), a model-independent statistics to quantify serial irregularities, was used to evaluate changes in sap flow temporal dynamics of two tropical species of trees subjected to water deficit. Water deficit induced a decrease in sap flow of G. ulmifolia, whereas C. legalis held stable their sap flow levels. Slight increases in time series complexity were observed in both species under drought condition. This study showed that ApEn could be used as a helpful tool to assess slight changes in temporal dynamics of physiological data, and to uncover some patterns of plant physiological responses to environmental stimuli.
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article Palavras-chave: Approximate Entropy; Complexity; Sap flow; Time series analysis; Tropical ecophysiology; Water deficit.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0001-37652004000300015
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Balancing Accuracy and Meaning in Common-Pool Resource Theory Ecology and Society
Cox, Michael; School of Public and Environmental Affairs, Indiana University; Workshop in Political Theory and Policy Analysis, Indiana University; miecox@indiana.edu.
Common-pool resources are managed in complex environments that are amenable to understanding, analysis, and management at multiple levels. This paper develops a heuristic criterion to identify the costs and benefits of adopting various levels of analysis when constructing theory for common-pool resource management. It argues that there is no single optimal level for such analysis. Instead, a trade-off is posed where theories at higher levels tend to be more accurate but less meaningful than theories at lower levels.
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Synthesis Palavras-chave: Common-pool resources; Complexity; Institutional analysis; Scale.
Ano: 2008
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Beyond Economic Efficiency in Biodiversity Conservation AgEcon
Gatzweiler, Franz W.; Volkmann, Jorg.
This paper aims at explaining the importance of the democracy stance as compared to the efficiency stance in order to deal with complexity in biodiversity conservation. While the efficiency stance refers to the realm of relatively simple systems, individual rationality, and instrumental values, the complexity stance transcends these boundaries into the realm of complex systems, social rationality and intrinsic values. We argue that the task of biodiversity conservation is impossible to achieve in economically efficient ways, because (a) it is impossible to come to a (fully informed) complete account of all values, not only because it is costly but also because (b) moral values are involved which (by their nature) exclude themselves from being accounted...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Biodiversity conservation; Efficiency; Complexity; Values; Institutions; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; B52; Q51; Q57.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7704
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Bits and q-bits as versatility measures Anais da ABC (AABC)
Piqueira,José R.C..
Using Shannon information theory is a common strategy to measure any kind of variability in a signal or phenomenon. Some methods were developed to adapt information entropy measures to bird song data trying to emphasize its versatility aspect. This classical approach, using the concept of bit, produces interesting results. Now, the original idea developed in this paper is to use the quantum information theory and the quantum bit (q-bit) concept in order to provide a more complete vision of the experimental results.
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article Palavras-chave: Bit; Complexity; Entropy; Q-bit; Measure; Versatility.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0001-37652004000200035
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Boolean logit and probit in Stata AgEcon
Braumoeller, Bear F..
This paper introduces new statistical models, Boolean logit and probit, that allow researchers to model binary outcomes as the results of Boolean interactions among independent causal processes. Each process (or “causal path”) is modeled as the unobserved outcome in a standard logit or probit equation, and the dependent variable is modeled as the observed product of their Boolean interaction. Up to five causal paths can be modeled, in any combination—A and B and C produce Y, A and (B or [C and D]) produce Y, etc.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Mlboolean; Dichotomous dependent variable; Boolean; Logit; Probit; Multiple causal paths; Complexity; Random utility; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/116271
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Can Resilience be Reconciled with Globalization and the Increasingly Complex Conditions of Resource Degradation in Asian Coastal Regions? Ecology and Society
Armitage, Derek; Wilfrid Laurier University; darmitag@wlu.ca; Johnson, Derek; Centre for Maritime Research; dsjohnson@marecentre.nl.
This paper explores the relationship between resilience and globalization. We are concerned, most importantly, with whether resilience is a suitable conceptual framework for natural resource management in the context of the rapid changes and disruptions that globalization causes in social-ecological systems. Although theoretical in scope, we ground this analysis using our experiences in two Asian coastal areas: Junagadh District in Gujarat State, India and Banawa Selatan, in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia. We present the histories of resource exploitation in the two areas, and we attempt to combine a resilience perspective with close attention to the impact of globalization. Our efforts serve as a basis from which to examine the conceptual and practical...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Synthesis Palavras-chave: Globalization; Resilience; Complexity; India; Indonesia; Resource management; Coastal management; Social-ecological system; Sustainability.
Ano: 2006
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Can sense-making tools inform adaptation policy? A practitioner’s perspective Ecology and Society
Milne, Kyla M. G.; Nova Scotia Environment; milnekm@gov.ns.ca.
As governments struggle to find solutions to complex problems like climate change, policy makers look for tools that can capture complexity and elicit insight. I explored the application of one such tool, known as “SenseMaker,” in helping Canadian policy makers understand the factors that enable or hinder climate change adaptation in Canada. I have reflected on the usefulness of SenseMaker and of a multiperspective, multimethod approach to investigating perceptions and experiences of adaptation. The challenges and advantages of applying this analysis in government were explored, and data findings assessed for their impact on policy. Findings showed that although the approach has promise, further work and testing are needed before...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Insight Palavras-chave: Climate adaptation; Complexity; SenseMaker; Sense making; Social psychology; Wicked problems.
Ano: 2015
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Change and Identity in Complex Systems Ecology and Society
Cumming, Graeme S; University of Florida; cummingg@wec.ufl.edu; Collier, John; University of KwaZulu-Natal; collierj@ukzn.ac.za.
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Complexity; Resilience; Identity; Adaptive cycle; Limitation; Replacement; Random walk; Evolution; Ecosystem; Economy; Society; Social-ecological system; Metamodels.
Ano: 2005
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Complexidade e abordagem sistêmica: identificando similaridades entre a Teoria dos Stakeholders e o processo de gestão ambiental. Repositório Alice
AZEVEDO, D. B. de; MALAFAIA, G. C.; PEDROZO, E. A.; SILVA, T. N. da; CORONEL, D. A..
2013
Tipo: Artigo em periódico indexado (ALICE) Palavras-chave: Gestão ambiental; Complexidade; Abordagem sistêmica; Environmental management; Complexity; Systemic approach.
Ano: 2013 URL: http://www.alice.cnptia.embrapa.br/handle/doc/982688
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Contributions of the complexity paradigm to the understanding of Cerrado's organization and dynamics Anais da ABC (AABC)
MATTOS,SÉRGIO H.V.L. DE; VICENTE,LUIZ E.; PEREZ FILHO,ARCHIMEDES; PIQUEIRA,JOSÉ R.C..
ABSTRACT The Brazilian Cerrado is a vegetation mosaic composed of different physiognomies. Discussions remain open regarding the factors and processes responsible for the dynamic and spatial organization of the Cerrado - in its different physiognomies. The contributions of the complexity paradigm in this context are still less exploited, despite its great potential for explanations and predictions presented in previous diverse dynamic systems of complex behavior researches, a category in which the Cerrado can be included. This article has the intention of contributing to the construction of this new perspective, discussing - from theoretical concepts - the paradigm of complexity for the understanding of the organization and the dynamics of the Cerrado.
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article Palavras-chave: Cerrado; Complexity; Complex system; Dynamics; Self-organized criticality.
Ano: 2016 URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0001-37652016000602417
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Cross-Scale Value Trade-Offs in Managing Social-Ecological Systems: The Politics of Scale in Ruaha National Park, Tanzania Ecology and Society
Zia, Asim; Department of Community Development and Applied Economics, University of Vermont; Asim.Zia@uvm.edu; Hirsch, Paul; Department of Environmental Studies SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse NY ; pahirsch@maxwell.syr.edu; Songorwa, Alexander; Department of Wildlife Management, Sokoine University of Agriculture, Morogoro, Tanzania ; bhugoji@yahoo.com; Mutekanga, David R.; Wildlife Conservation Society, Ruaha National Park, Tanzania; DMutekanga@wcs.org; O'Connor, Sheila; Global Institute of Sustainability, Arizona State University, Tempe AZ ; soconnor@wwf.org.uk; McShane, Thomas; Global Institute of Sustainability, Arizona State University, Tempe AZ ; mcshane@bluewin.ch; Brosius, Peter; Center for Integrative Conservation Research, University of Georgia, Athens GA ; pbrosius@uga.edu; Norton, Bryan; School of Public Policy, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta GA; bryan.norton@pubpolicy.gatech.edu.
Management of social-ecological systems takes place amidst complex governance processes and cross-scale institutional arrangements that are mediated through politics of scale. Each management scenario generates distinct cross-scale trade-offs in the distribution of pluralistic values. This study explores the hypothesis that conservation-oriented management scenarios generate higher value for international and national scale social organizations, whereas mixed or more balanced management scenarios generate higher value for local scale social organizations. This hypothesis is explored in the management context of Ruaha National Park (RNP), Tanzania, especially the 2006 expansion of RNP that led to the eviction of many pastoralists and farmers. Five...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Biodiversity conservation; Complexity; Ecological valuation; Economic development; Politics of scale; Social-ecological systems; Trade-off analysis.
Ano: 2011
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DOING POLICY IN THE LAB! OPTIONS FOR THE FUTURE USE OF MODEL-BASED POLICY ANALYSIS FOR COMPLEX DECISION-MAKING AgEcon
Happe, Kathrin; Balmann, Alfons.
For models to have an impact on policy-making, they need to be used. Exploring the relationships between policy models, model uptake and policy dynamics is the core of this article. What particular role can policy models play in the analysis and design of policies? Which factors facilitate (inhibit) the uptake of models by policy-makers? What are possible pathways to further develop modelling approaches to better meet the challenges facing agriculture today? In this paper, we address these issues from three different points of view, each of which should shed some light on the subject. The first point of view discusses models in the framework of complex adaptive systems and uncertainty. The second point of view looks at the dynamic interplay between...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Modelling; Complexity; Participatory modelling; Policy analysis; Model use; Agricultural and Food Policy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6588
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