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| Registros recuperados: 29 | |
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| Peterson, Garry D; McGill University; garry.peterson@mcgill.ca; Beard Jr., T. Douglas; Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources; BEARDT@dnr.state.wi.us; Beisner, Beatrix E; University of Wisconsin-Madison; bebeisner@facstaff.wisc.edu; Bennett, Elena M; University of Wisconsin-Madison; embennett@wisc.edu; Carpenter, Stephen R; University of Wisconsin-Madison; srcarpen@wisc.edu; Cumming, Graeme; University of Florida; cummingg@wec.ufl.edu; Dent, C. Lisa; University of Wisconsin-Madison; ldent@facstaff.wisc.edu,; Havlicek, Tanya D; University of Wisconsin-Madison; TDHAVLIC@students.wisc.edu. |
| The Northern Highlands Lake District of Wisconsin is in transition from a sparsely settled region to a more densely populated one. Expected changes offer benefits to northern Wisconsin residents but also threaten to degrade the ecological services they rely on. Because the future of this region is uncertain, it is difficult to make decisions that will avoid potential risks and take advantage of potential opportunities. We adopt a scenario planning approach to cope with this problem of prediction. We use an ecological assessment framework developed by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment to determine key social and ecological driving forces in the Northern Highlands Lake District. From these, we describe three alternative scenarios to the year 2025 in which... |
| Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports |
Palavras-chave: Northern Highlands Lake District; Wisconsin; Assessment; Ecosystem services; Freshwater; Futures; Prediction; Scenario planning. |
| Ano: 2003 |
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| Manfredo, Mark R.; Richards, Timothy J.. |
| Agricultural cooperatives tend to be riskier than investor-oriented firms, both in a business and financial sense. However, cooperative managers are often reluctant to actively manage risk. Although the risk management irrelevance proposition suggests that cooperative managers should be unable to add shareholder value through risk management activities, this study argues that there are several reasons why this is not likely to be the case for cooperatives. Several empirical examples are provided through numerical simulation of pro-forma financial statements from representative agricultural cooperatives. Using mean variance, expected utility and value-at-risk metrics, the results of these simulations show that various risk management strategies can... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Cooperative; Expected utility; Futures; Option; Risk management; Value at risk.; Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28540 |
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| Irwin, Scott H.; Sanders, Dwight R.; Merrin, Robert P.. |
| It is commonly asserted that speculative buying by index funds in commodity futures and over–the–counter derivatives markets created a ‘‘bubble’’ in commodity prices, with the result that prices, and crude oil prices, in particular, far exceeded fundamental values at the peak. The purpose of this paper is to show that the bubble argument simply does not withstand close scrutiny. Four main points are explored. First, the arguments of bubble proponents are conceptually flawed and reflect fundamental and basic misunderstandings of how commodity futures markets actually work. Second, a number of facts about the situation in commodity markets are inconsistent with the existence of a substantial bubble in commodity prices. Third, available statistical evidence... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Commodity; Futures; Index fund; Market; Speculation; Agribusiness; Demand and Price Analysis; Financial Economics; Marketing; Q11; Q13. |
| Ano: 2009 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53083 |
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| Mattos, Fabio; Garcia, Philip; Pennings, Joost M.E.. |
| This paper investigates the dynamics of sequential decision-making in agricultural futures and options markets. Analysis of trading records of 12 traders identified considerable heterogeneity in individual dynamic trading behavior. Using risk measures derived from the deltas and vegas of trader’s portfolios, we find nearly half the traders behavior is consistent with a house-money effect and the other half with loss aversion. These findings correspond closely to expected behavior inferred from elicited utility and probability weighting functions. The results call into question more aggregate findings that discount probability weighting to develop risk measures which support the notion of more uniform, less heterogeneous, behavior. Understanding behavior in... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Loss aversion; House-money effect; Futures; Options; Agricultural Finance. |
| Ano: 2008 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37605 |
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| Sitas, Nadia; Harmáčková, Zuzana V.; Anticamara, Jonathan A.; Arneth, Almut; Badola, Ruchi; Biggs, Reinette; Blanchard, Ryan; Brotons, Lluis; Cantele, Matthew; Coetzer, Kaera; Dasgupta, Rajarshi; Den Belder, Eefje; Ghosh, Sonali; Guisan, Antoine; Gundimeda, Haripriya; Hamann, Meike; Harrison, Paula A.; Hashimoto, Shizuka; Hauck, Jennifer; Klatt, Brian J.; Kok, Kasper; Krug, Rainer M.; Niamir, Aidin; O'Farrell, Patrick J.; Okayasu, Sana; Palomo, Ignacio; Pereira, Laura M.; Riordan, Philip; Santos-martín, Fernando; Selomane, Odirilwe; Shin, Yunne-jai; Valle, Mireia. |
| Scenario analyses have been used in multiple science-policy assessments to better understand complex plausible futures. Scenario archetype approaches are based on the fact that many future scenarios have similar underlying storylines, assumptions, and trends in drivers of change, which allows for grouping of scenarios into typologies, or archetypes, facilitating comparisons between a large range of studies. The use of scenario archetypes in environmental assessments foregrounds important policy questions and can be used to codesign interventions tackling future sustainability issues. Recently, scenario archetypes were used in four regional assessments and one ongoing global assessment within the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform for Biodiversity... |
| Tipo: Text |
Palavras-chave: Assessment; Biodiversity; Decision making; Ecosystem services; Futures; Nature; Regional; Scenarios. |
| Ano: 2019 |
URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00516/62748/67140.pdf |
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| Mastel, Mike; Buschena, David E.. |
| The performance of the grain transportation industry, historically low real grain prices, and decreasing government support for grain prices have renewed interest in local grain prices and shipping costs. An understanding of the relationship between local cash prices and futures prices is an important part of minimizing the price risk associated with growing and merchandising grain. The ability to recognize the seasonal patterns between these prices offers improved profit potential for marketing grain. A Montana producer's decision of when and how to market his/her crop can have a great impact on net profit. Farm managers can use cash sales at or after harvest, forward contracting with a local grain elevator, or hedging with the use of futures and options... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Grain marketing; Futures; Basis; Freight rates; Marketing strategies; Marketing; Q1. |
| Ano: 2000 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/29176 |
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| Frechette, Darren L.. |
| The optimal hedging portfolio is shown to include both futures and options under a variety of circumstances when the marginal cost of hedging is non-zero. Futures and options are treated as substitute goods, and properties of the resulting hedging demand system are explained. The overall optimal hedge ratio is shown to increase when the marginal cost of trading options is reduced. The overall optimal hedge ratio is shown to decrease when the marginal cost of trading futures is decreased. The implication is that hedging demand can be stimulated by reducing the perceived cost of trading options, by educating hedgers about options and by initiating programs like the Dairy Options Pilot Program. The demand systems approach is applied to estimate optimal... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Hedging; Options; Futures; Marketing. |
| Ano: 2000 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18941 |
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| Hanson, Steven D.; Myers, Robert J.; Hilker, James H.. |
| Many agricultural producers face cash price distributions that are effectively truncated at a lower limit through participation in farm programs designed to support farm prices and incomes. For example, the 1996 Federal Agricultural Improvement Act (FAIR) makes many producers eligible to obtain marketing loans which truncate their cash price realization at the loan rate, while allowing market prices to freely equilibrate supply and demand. This paper studies the effects of truncated cash price distributions on the optimal use of futures and options. The results show that truncation in the cash price distribution facing an individual producer provides incentives to trade options as well as futures. We derive optimal futures and options trading rules under... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Farm programs; Futures; Hedging; Options; Truncation; Marketing. |
| Ano: 1999 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15152 |
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| Colino, Evelyn V.; Irwin, Scott H.; Garcia, Philip. |
| This study investigates the predictability of outlook hog price forecasts released by Iowa State University relative to alternative market and time-series forecasts. The findings suggest that predictive performance of the outlook hog price forecasts can be improved substantially. Under RMSE, VARs estimated with Bayesian procedures that allow for some degree of flexibility and model averaging consistently outperform Iowa outlook estimates at all forecast horizons. Evidence from the encompassing tests, which are highly stringent tests of forecast performance, indicates that many price forecasts do provide incremental information relative to Iowa. Simple combinations of these models and outlook forecasts are able to reduce forecast errors by economically... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Forecast; Futures; Models; Prices; Time-series; Vector autoregression; Agricultural Finance. |
| Ano: 2008 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37620 |
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| Pedersen, Michael Friis. |
| Marketing of milk and meat in Denmark is dominated by two large cooperatives, Arla Foods in the dairy sector and Danish Crown in the pork sector. Members in these cooperatives practically have no possibility for price risk management on their main product. Futures markets for dairy and pork are not utilised, and it is suggested that the reason is prohibitively large basis risk. The events following the global financial crisis suggest increased need for price risk management in Danish agriculture. Since futures markets do not seem to be a viable solution, the paper explores an alternative. Reallocation of price risk among members in marketing cooperatives. Endowing members with a forward contracted share of delivery, and allowing for transfer at a market... |
| Tipo: Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Futures; Hedging; Risk management; Marketing cooperatives; Agribusiness; Risk and Uncertainty; G13; G32; Q13; D61; D8. |
| Ano: 2012 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122529 |
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| Janzen, Joseph P.. |
| Analysis of the cotton futures price spike and its effects on commercial hedgers suggest that we do not completely understand the behavior of markets and firms in periods of extreme volatility. After presenting the story of the cotton futures price spike, this paper argues that explanations related to the funding liquidity of firms and the liquidity of the markets themselves may help us better understand market volatility. A simple model of futures market equilibrium in the presence of liquidity constraints demonstrates how prices can spike as fast as they did and why such spikes can drive firms to exit. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Futures; Hedging; Liquidity constraints; Cotton; Agribusiness; Financial Economics. |
| Ano: 2010 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61453 |
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| Loy, Jens-Peter. |
| The paper aims at analyzing the potentials for reducing income risk and income variation for slaughter hog producers in Germany and Holland by participating at futures markets in Amsterdam or Hannover. The relative market and hedging efficiency for the Amsterdam stock exchange markets is tested and the optimal hedge ratio is derived for minimizing risk and variance of slaughter hog gross margins (income). Relative market efficiency and a significant impact of hedging on income risk and variance can not be rejected. The results show that the optimal hedge ratio is smaller for variance compared to risk minimizing hedging strategy. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Futures; Pigs; Market Efficiency; Hedging; Marketing. |
| Ano: 2002 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24849 |
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| Registros recuperados: 29 | |
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