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An Evaluation of Overseas Oil Investment Projects under Uncertainty Using a Real Options Based Simulation Model AgEcon
Zhu, Lei; Zhang, ZhongXiang; Fan, Ying.
This paper applies real options theory to establish an overseas oil investment evaluation model that is based on Monte Carlo simulation and is solved by the Least Squares Monte-Carlo method. To better reflect the reality of overseas oil investment, our model has incorporated not only the uncertainties of oil price and investment cost but also the uncertainties of exchange rate and investment environment. These unique features have enabled our model to be best equipped to evaluate the value of oil overseas investment projects of three oil field sizes (large, medium, small) and under different resource tax systems (royalty tax and production sharing contracts). In our empirical setting, we have selected China as an investor country and Indonesia as an...
Tipo: Working Paper Palavras-chave: Overseas Oil Investment; Project Value; Real Options; Least Squares Monte-Carlo; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q41; Q43; Q48; G31; O13; O22; C63.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/119106
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An impact evaluation of technology adoption by smallholders in Sichuan, China: the case of sweet potato-pig systems AgEcon
Lapar, Ma. Lucila A.; Ngoc Toan, Nguyen; Zou, Chengyi; Liu, Jinyuan; Li, Xianglin; Randolph, Thomas F..
We employ propensity score matching (PSM) framework to examine the impact of sweet potato-based feed technology adoption on household-based pig production in Sichuan, China. An ex post survey in six villages was conducted in 2009, of which five villages were in project intervention sites (exposed area) and one village in the same township but not exposed to project intervention (non-exposed area). We randomly selected 111 households in the exposed areas from the list of households previously interviewed in a baseline survey and 53 households from non-exposed area. Matching estimators such as nearest neighbor matching (NNM), radius matching (RM) and kernel matching (KM) were used to estimate average treatment effects. Results indicate positive net benefit...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Technology adoption; Impact assessment; Crop-livestock systems; Livestock Production/Industries; Production Economics; O22; O33; Q16.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/100577
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Carbon Credit Payment Options for Agroforestry Projects in Africa AgEcon
Allwardt, Jennifer.
The potential of using carbon offset credits from agroforestry projects for farmers in developing areas has become more prevalent in both Clean Development Mechanism and voluntary carbon markets. Since the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol, many international development organizations have been interested in using the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) to help both mitigate CO2 emissions through agroforestry projects offsets and as a poverty reduction tool. Few organizations that have begun talking with farmers about planting trees for carbon offset credits have been able to tell the farmers how much money they would receive from their new tree growth or the costs they will incur in doing so. For this study, a whole farm budget toolkit was designed to...
Tipo: Thesis Palavras-chave: Agroforestry; Budget toolkit; Carbon credits; Clean Development Mechanism; Payment methods; Smallholder farmers; Agricultural Finance; Community/Rural/Urban Development; International Development; Land Economics/Use; O13; O22; R30; Q54.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/118497
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Community Pressure and Clean Technology in the Informal Sector: An Econometric Analysis of the Adoption of Propane by Traditional Mexican Brickmakers AgEcon
Blackman, Allen; Bannister, Geoffrey J..
In many developing countries the informal sector, comprised of low-technology unlicensed micro-enterprises, is a major source of pollution. Environmental management in this sector is exceptionally challenging. Though clean technologies offer a means of mitigating the problem, to our knowledge there has been no rigorous empirical research on why informal (or even small-scale) firms do and do not adopt them. As a first step towards filling this gap, this paper presents the results of an econometric analysis of the diffusion of propane among informal 'traditional' brickmakers in Cd. Juárez, Mexico--a leading source of air pollution owing to their reliance on cheap, highly polluting fuels such as used tires and scrap wood. The two key policy implications of...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Environment; Community pressure; Clean technology; Informal sector; Technology adoption; Brickmaking; Mexico; Environmental Economics and Policy; O17; O22; O33; Q25; C25; L61.
Ano: 1998 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10529
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Economics of Sugar-Based Ethanol Production and Related Policy Issues AgEcon
Outlaw, Joe L.; Ribera, Luis A.; Richardson, James W.; da Silva, Jorge; Bryant, Henry L.; Klose, Steven L..
The feasibility of integrating ethanol production into an existing sugar mill was analyzed by a stochastic spreadsheet model. As the price of corn continues to rise, ethanol producers will eventually need to look at other feedstock alternatives. Sugarcane has been proven to work well in the production of ethanol in Brazil. The results indicated existing U.S. sugar mills could economically switch to ethanol production. As imports into the United States threaten to undermine the U.S. sugar program, sugarcane producers have a viable alternative. At the very least, the alternative exists to diversify their income streams with ethanol production.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Ethanol; Feasibility analysis; Simulation analysis; Sugarcane; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; R51; R58; O22.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6515
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Modern aspects of public private partnership AgEcon
Milosavljevic, Milos; Benkovic, Sladjana.
Development of infrastructure is essential presumption for growth and development of relevant economic entities. The empirical evidence of private initiative importance and potentials in the establishment of cooperation with the public sector in infrastructure projects financing and operation refocused professional and academic attention on the studies of this phenomenon. The realm of the public private partnership (PPP) became scientifically treated as an interdisciplinary skill based mostly on project financing, whilst practically it became almost mandatory method for economic prosperity. Practical problems in implementation appeared due to lack of knowledge and nonsystematic approach in researches of private public partnership. This paper presents...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Infrastructure; Public private partnership; Hybrid public private partnership models.; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; H54; O22.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/94568
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Pollution Control in the Informal Sector: The Ciudad Juarez Brickmakers' Project AgEcon
Blackman, Allen; Bannister, Geoffrey J..
Low-technology unlicensed micro-enterprises known as "informal" firms are a significant source of pollution in developing countries that are virtually impossible to regulate in the conventional manner. This paper describes an example of an innovative and promising approach to the problem: the Ciudad Juarez Brickmakers' Project, a private-sector-led initiative aimed at abating highly polluting emissions from Ciudad Juarez, Mexico's approximately 300 informal brick kilns. We draw four lessons from the Project's history. First, private-sector-led initiatives can work -- indeed they may be more effective than public-sector-initiatives -- but they require strong public sector support. Second, necessary conditions for effective environmental management in the...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Informal sector; Air pollution; Mexico; Brickmaking; Community pressure; Environmental Economics and Policy; O17; O22; O33; O54; Q25; L61.
Ano: 1998 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10478
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Restrictions of empirical policy analyses: the example of the evaluation of rural development policies AgEcon
Margarian, Anne.
The present paper asks under what circumstances a standardisation of evaluations would be feasible in order to enable a comprehensible aggregation of results for the European administration. We argue that in the complex environment of rural development the adequate definition of system boundaries is a precondition for the successful application of empirical methods and the identification of causal effects. If macro effects and self-enforcing effects are important, the objects of inquiry have to be defined on a higher observational level. In this case, the statistical identification may not be possible because there might be hardly any comparable (“counterfactual”) observations. We conclude that evaluators need definite theoretical guidance in order to...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Evaluation; Complex systems; Causal inference; Counterfactual approach; Community/Rural/Urban Development; O22; Q18; R58; C51.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/95320
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Technical Efficiency of Resource-Conserving Technologies in Rice -Wheat Systems: The Case of Bihar and Eastern Uttar Pradesh in India AgEcon
Dung, Khong Tien; Sumalde, Zenaida M.; Pede, Valerien O.; McKinley, Justin D.; Garcia, Yolanda T.; Bello, Amelia L..
This study has evaluated the technical efficiency of farmers engaged in rice-wheat cropping systems in North-eastern India, who are using Resource-Conserving Technologies (RCTs) such as Zero Tillage (ZT) and Direct Seeded Rice (DSR). These technology promotions are being carried out under the intervention of the Cereal Systems Initiative for South Asia (CSISA) project, primarily funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The resource-conserving technologies are being promoted as part of conservation agriculture supported by the project. The data used in this study have been derived from the socioeconomic surveys conducted in Eastern Uttar-Pradesh and Bihar in North-eastern India during the kharif season of 2009 and rabi season of 2010. A stochastic...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Conservation agriculture; Direct seeded rice; India; Resource-conserving technology; Technical efficiency; Stochastic frontier; Zero tillage; Agricultural and Food Policy; O30; Q18; O22.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/118227
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Who is Vouching for the Input Voucher? Decentralized Targeting and Elite Capture in Tanzania AgEcon
Pan, Lei; Christiaensen, Luc J.M..
Through decentralized targeting of input vouchers new agricultural input subsidy programs aim to more effectively reach their objectives and target population. But, lingering fears of elite capture remain. These are borne out in the 2009 input voucher program in Kilimanjaro, Tanzania. Sixty percent of the voucher beneficiaries were households with village officials. This significantly reduced the targeting performance of the program, especially in unequal and remote communities. When targeting the poor, greater coverage and concentration in higher trust settings mitigated these concerns. Scrutiny remains important when relying on decentralized targeting, as is a clearer sense of purpose of input vouchers.
Tipo: Presentation Palavras-chave: Local elite; Decentralization; Targeting; Fertilizer; Voucher program; Tanzania; International Development; Public Economics; H11; H42; O22.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122905
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