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ADOPT: a tool for predicting adoption of agricultural innovations AgEcon
Kuehne, Geoff; Llewellyn, Rick S.; Pannell, David J.; Wilkinson, Roger; Dolling, P.; Ewing, Michael A..
A wealth of evidence exists about the adoption of new practices and technologies in agriculture but there does not appear to have been any attempt to simplify this vast body of research knowledge into a model to make quantitative predictions across a broad range of contexts. This is despite increasing demand from research, development and extension agencies for estimates of likely extent of adoption and the likely timeframes for project impacts. This paper reports on the reasoning underpinning the development of ADOPT (Adoption and Diffusion Outcome Prediction Tool). The tool has been designed to: 1) predict an innovation‘s likely peak extent of adoption and likely time for reaching that peak; 2) encourage users to consider the influence of a structured...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Adoption; Diffusion; Prediction; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/100570
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Agrometeorological models for groundnut crop yield forecasting in the Jaboticabal, São Paulo State region, Brazil Agronomy
Moreto, Victor Brunini; Rolim, Glauco de Souza.
Forecast is the act of estimating a future event based on current data. Ten-day period (TDP) meteorological data were used for modeling: mean air temperature, precipitation and water balance components (water deficit (DEF) and surplus (EXC) and soil water storage (SWS)). Meteorological and yield data from 1990-2004 were used for calibration, and 2005-2010 were used for testing. First step was the selection of variables via correlation analysis to determine which TDP and climatic variables have more influence on the crop yield. The selected variables were used to construct models by multiple linear regression, using a stepwise backwards process. Among all analyzed models, the following was notable: Yield = - 4.964 x [SWS of 2° TDP of December of the...
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article Palavras-chave: Agrometeorologia 5.01.05.00-0 crop model; Water balance; Prediction; Production. agrometeorologia.
Ano: 2015 URL: http://periodicos.uem.br/ojs/index.php/ActaSciAgron/article/view/19766
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Artificial neural networks compared with Bayesian generalized linear regression for leaf rust resistance prediction in Arabica coffee. Repositório Alice
SILVA, G. N.; NASCIMENTO, M.; SANT'ANNA, I. de C.; CRUZ, C. D.; CAIXETA, E. T.; CARNEIRO, P. C. S.; ROSADO, R. D. S.; PESTANA, K. N.; ALMEIDA, D. P. de; OLIVEIRA, M. da S..
The objective of this work was to evaluate the use of artificial neural networks in comparison with Bayesian generalized linear regression to predict leaf rust resistance in Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica). This study used 245 individuals of a F2 population derived from the self-fertilization of the F1 H511-1 hybrid, resulting from a crossing between the susceptible cultivar Catuaí Amarelo IAC 64 (UFV 2148-57) and the resistant parent Híbrido de Timor (UFV 443-03). The 245 individuals were genotyped with 137 markers. Artificial neural networks and Bayesian generalized linear regression analyses were performed. The artificial neural networks were able to identify four important markers belonging to linkage groups that have been recently mapped, while the...
Tipo: Artigo em periódico indexado (ALICE) Palavras-chave: Inteligência artificial; Predição; Coffea arabica; Hemileia vastatrix; Marcador molecular; Coffea arabica; Hemileia vastatrix; Artificial intelligence; Genetic markers; Prediction.
Ano: 2017 URL: http://www.alice.cnptia.embrapa.br/handle/doc/1069618
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Assessing Future Ecosystem Services: a Case Study of the Northern Highlands Lake District, Wisconsin Ecology and Society
Peterson, Garry D; McGill University; garry.peterson@mcgill.ca; Beard Jr., T. Douglas; Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources; BEARDT@dnr.state.wi.us; Beisner, Beatrix E; University of Wisconsin-Madison; bebeisner@facstaff.wisc.edu; Bennett, Elena M; University of Wisconsin-Madison; embennett@wisc.edu; Carpenter, Stephen R; University of Wisconsin-Madison; srcarpen@wisc.edu; Cumming, Graeme; University of Florida; cummingg@wec.ufl.edu; Dent, C. Lisa; University of Wisconsin-Madison; ldent@facstaff.wisc.edu,; Havlicek, Tanya D; University of Wisconsin-Madison; TDHAVLIC@students.wisc.edu.
The Northern Highlands Lake District of Wisconsin is in transition from a sparsely settled region to a more densely populated one. Expected changes offer benefits to northern Wisconsin residents but also threaten to degrade the ecological services they rely on. Because the future of this region is uncertain, it is difficult to make decisions that will avoid potential risks and take advantage of potential opportunities. We adopt a scenario planning approach to cope with this problem of prediction. We use an ecological assessment framework developed by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment to determine key social and ecological driving forces in the Northern Highlands Lake District. From these, we describe three alternative scenarios to the year 2025 in which...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Northern Highlands Lake District; Wisconsin; Assessment; Ecosystem services; Freshwater; Futures; Prediction; Scenario planning.
Ano: 2003
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Body Height and Its Estimation Utilizing Arm Span Measurements in Serbian Adults International Journal of Morphology
Popovic,Stevo; Bjelica,Dusko; Molnar,Slavko; Jaksic,Damjan; Akpinar,Selcuk.
Anthropologists recognized the tallness of nations in the Dinaric Alps long time ago. As the modern Serbians fall more into the Dinaric racial classification than any other does, the purpose of this study was to examine the body height in Serbian adults as well as the relationship between arm span as an alternative to estimating the body height, which vary in different ethnic and racial groups. The nature and scope of this study analyzes 394 students (318 men, aged 20.13±1.47 and 76 women, aged 19.59±1.46) from the University of Novi Sad to be subjects. The anthropometric measurements were taken according to the protocol of the ISAK. Means and standard deviations were obtained. A comparison of means of body heights and arm spans within each gender group...
Tipo: Journal article Palavras-chave: Prediction; Standing height; Stature; Armspan; Serbia.
Ano: 2013 URL: http://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0717-95022013000100043
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Changing business environment: implications for farming AgEcon
Malcolm, Bill.
The natural, technological, economic, political and social environment in which farmers farm constantly changes. History has lessons about change in agriculture and about farmers coping with change, though the future is unknowable and thus always surprising. The implication for farm operation is to prepare, do not predict.
Tipo: Article Palavras-chave: Preparation; Prediction; Farm management; Uncertainty; Farm Management.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122904
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Climate warming and sea level rise. OceanDocs
Yue, Jun; Dong, Yue; Wu, Sangyun; Geng, Xiushan; Zhao, Changrong.
Based on a large number of actual data, the author believe that the modern global warming and sea level rise resulted from climate warming after the cold front of the Little Ice Age about 200 years ago and the developmnet of the sea level rise phase. In the past 30 years, the rate of sea level rise was increasing, which is under the background of the average temperature uplift 0.2F°(0.11 °C)every 10 years in succession from the 1980s to the past 10 years this century. On the basis of the absolute and relative sea-level rise rate that was calculated from the tidal data during the same period at home and abroad in the last 30 years, in accordance with the resolutions of the 2010 climate conference in Cancun, at the same time, considering the previous...
Tipo: Journal Contribution Palavras-chave: Global warming; Sea level variations; Prediction; Evaluation.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://hdl.handle.net/1834/5832
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Comparison of Regression and Neural Networks Models to Estimate Solar Radiation Chilean J. Agric. Res.
Bocco,Mónica; Willington,Enrique; Arias,Mónica.
The incident solar radiation on soil is an important variable used in agricultural applications; it is also relevant in hydrology, meteorology and soil physics, among others. To estimate this variable, empirical models have been developed using several parameters and, recently, prognostic and prediction models based on artificial intelligence techniques such as neural networks. The aim of this work was to develop linear models and neural networks, multilayer perceptron, to estimate daily global solar radiation and compare their efficiency in its application to a region of the Province of Salta, Argentina. Relative sunshine duration, maximum and minimum temperature, rainfall, binary rainfall and extraterrestrial solar radiation data for the period...
Tipo: Journal article Palavras-chave: Modeling; Prediction; Linear regression; Multilayer perceptron.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0718-58392010000300010
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Development and evaluation of neural network models to estimate daily solar radiation at Córdoba, Argentina. Repositório Alice
BOCCO, M.; OVANDO, G.; SAYAGO, S..
The objective of this work was to develop neural network models of backpropagation type to estimate solar radiation based on extraterrestrial radiation data, daily temperature range, precipitation, cloudiness and relative sunshine duration. Data from Córdoba, Argentina, were used for development and validation. The behaviour and adjustment between values observed and estimates obtained by neural networks for different combinations of input were assessed. These estimations showed root mean square error between 3.15 and 3.88 MJ m-2 d-1. The latter corresponds to the model that calculates radiation using only precipitation and daily temperature range. In all models, results show good adjustment to seasonal solar radiation. These results allow inferring the...
Tipo: Artigo em periódico indexado (ALICE) Palavras-chave: Modelling; Prediction; Backpropagation neural networks; Modelagem; Predição; Redes neurais de retropropagação.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://www.alice.cnptia.embrapa.br/handle/doc/118193
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Development and evaluation of prediction equations for methane emission from Nellore cattle Dry matter intake (DMI Animal Sciences
Sobrinho, Tatiana Lucila Pires; Branco, Renata Helena; Magnani, Elaine; Berndt, Alexandre; Canesin, Roberta Carrilho; Mercadante, Maria Eugênia Zerlotti.
  
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article Palavras-chave: Beef cattle; Dry matter intake; Greenhouse gas; Prediction; Sulfur hexafluoride..
Ano: 2018 URL: http://periodicos.uem.br/ojs/index.php/ActaSciAnimSci/article/view/42559
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Espacialização de espécies florestais por classe diamétrica usando máxima entropia no sudoeste da Amazônia. Repositório Alice
FIGUEIREDO, S. M. de M.; FIGUEIREDO, E. O..
O objetivo do estudo foi analisar a predição da distribuição de espécies florestais madeireiras, em escala local, utilizando dados de ocorrência agrupados por classe diamétrica. Para estimar a distribuição foi utilizado o método de máxima entropia (Maxent) e as ocorrências são de inventário florestal de planos de manejo. Foram selecionadas seis variáveis preditoras, por espécie, pelo método de todas as regressões possíveis. Os modelos tiveram em média bom desempenho (AUC = 0,7; taxa de omissão = 8,8%), demonstrando a viabilidade de se predizer a distribuição de espécies por classe diamétrica. De acordo com os modelos, Astonium lecointei, Clarisia racemosa e Ceiba pentandra com diâmetro a altura do peito (DAP) ≥ 100 cm têm maior probabilidade de...
Tipo: Artigo em anais de congresso (ALICE) Palavras-chave: Árboles forestales; Inventario forestal; Biodiversidad; Prácticas de conservación; Manejo florestal; Manejo forestal; Sistemas de información geográfica; Teledetección; Método da Máxima Entropia (Maxent); Maximum Entropy Method (Maxent); Modeflora; Predição; Predicción; Embrapa Acre; Instituto de Meio Ambiente do Acre; Acre; Amazônia Ocidental; Western Amazon; Amazonia Occidental; Árvore Florestal; Diâmetro; Biogeografia; Inventário Florestal; Biodiversidade; Conservação; Administração Florestal; Sistema de Informação Geográfica; Sensoriamento Remoto; Dendrometria; Forest trees; Biogeography; Forest inventory; Biodiversity; Conservation practices; Forest management; Geographic information systems; Remote sensing; Forest mensuration; Prediction.
Ano: 2019 URL: http://www.alice.cnptia.embrapa.br/alice/handle/doc/1110086
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Estimation of 90Sr and 137Cs transfer from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean Basin after the Chernobyl NPP accident IBSS Repository
Egorov, V. N.; Polikarpov, G. G.; Stokozov, N. A.; Mirzoyeva, N. Yu..
The 90Sr and 137Cs inputs from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean Basin through the Bosporus Strait after the Chernobyl NPP accident were estimated. It is obtained that the 90Sr and 137Cs fluxes from the Black Sea to the Sea of Marmara are decreased with an effective exponential half-lives (T05) 9.5 years and 6.4 years, respectively. The estimations have shown that 110 TBq 90Sr and 250 TBq 137Cs in 1986-2000 was delivered from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean Basin after the Chernobyl NPP accident. The radioactive pollution of the Mediterranean Basin will continue for 5 half-lives, i.e. 47 years for 90Sr and 32 years for 137Cs. The total 90Sr and l37Cs inputs from the Black Sea into the Mediterranean Basin have been assessed as 168 TBq and 311 TBq,...
Tipo: Journal Contribution Palavras-chave: Сhernobyl NPP accident; 90Sr and 137Cs fluxes; Prediction; The Bosporus currents; Black Sea; Mediterranean Basin; Авария на Чернобыльской АЭС; Потоки 90Sr и 137Cs; Прогноз; Босфорское течение; Черное море; Средиземноморский бассейн Prediction Prediction http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_29367.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://repository.ibss.org.ua/dspace/handle/99011/243
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Estimation of light lamb carcass composition by in vivo real-time ultrasonography at four anatomical locations IPB - Escola Superior Agrária
Ripoll, G.; Joy, M.; Álvarez-Rodríguez, J.; Sanz, B.; Teixeira, A..
The objectives of this study were to study the relationship between in vivo ultrasound measurements and cold carcass measurements at 4 anatomical points of the backbone, and to establish regression equations to estimate carcass composition within the cold carcass weight range for Ternasco lambs (8 to 12.5 kg) by using ultrasonic measurements taken at a single location. Measurements of subcutaneous fat and skin thickness and of muscle depth and width were taken over the 10th to 11th and 12th to 13th thoracic vertebrae and the 1st to 2nd and 3rd to 4th lumbar vertebrae. These measurements were taken at 2 and 4 cm from the nearest end of the LM to the backbone and at 1/3 of the LM width with the probe perpendicular to and parallel to the backbone. The left...
Tipo: Article Palavras-chave: Carcass composition; Fat thickness; Muscle depth; Prediction; Regression; Ultrasound.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10198/4907
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Hazard warning: model misuse ahead ArchiMer
Dickey-collas, Mark; Payne, Mark R.; Trenkel, Verena M.; Nash, Richard D. M..
The use of modelling approaches in marine science, and in particular fisheries science, is explored. We highlight that the choice of model used for an analysis should account for the question being posed or the context of the management problem. We examine a model-classification scheme based on Richard Levins' 1966 work suggesting that models can only achieve two of three desirable model attributes: realism, precision, and generality. Model creation, therefore, requires trading-off of one of these attributes in favour of the other two: however, this is often in conflict with the desires of end-users (i.e. mangers or policy developers). The combination of attributes leads to models that are considered to have empirical, mechanistic, or analytical...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Climate; Fisheries; GAM; Management; Prediction; Projection; Recruitment; Time-series analysis.
Ano: 2014 URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00222/33371/32179.pdf
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Introducción al análisis Bayesiano OceanDocs
Hernandez, D.R..
An introduction to the Bayesian Analysis is presented and conceptual aspects highlighted. Initially, the probability concept is analyzed from its objective perspective such as frequency, and from its subjective perspective such as degree of belief. It is discussed how, within the context of Bayesian statistics, probability as degree of belief allows to give sense to the probability of a hypothesis and, therefore, enables to resolve problems of scientific interest that could not be otherwise addressed. The likelihood concept is discussed and the Bayes formula, which integrates a priori information and knowledge with information provided by current data demonstrated. Basic concepts of the Decision Theory within the Bayesian perspective are introduced. The...
Tipo: Book Palavras-chave: Statistical analysis; Statistical models; Fishery resources; Stock assessment; Prediction; Probability theory; Statistical analysis; Stock assessment; Fishery resources; Prediction; Http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7378; Http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24251; Http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2942; Http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_29367.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://hdl.handle.net/1834/2560
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Land-use regime shifts: an analytical framework and agenda for future land-use research Ecology and Society
Ramankutty, Navin; Liu Institute for Global Issues; Institute for Resources, Environment, and Sustainability, University of British Columbia; navin.ramankutty@ubc.ca; Coomes, Oliver T.; Department of Geography, McGill University; oliver.coomes@mcgill.ca.
A key research frontier in global change research lies in understanding processes of land change to inform predictive models of future land states. We believe that significant advances in the field are hampered by limited attention being paid to critical points of change termed land-use regime shifts. We present an analytical framework for understanding land-use regime shifts. We survey historical events of land change and perform in-depth case studies of soy and shrimp development in Latin America to demonstrate the role of preconditions, triggers, and self-reinforcing processes in driving land-use regime shifts. Whereas the land-use literature demonstrates a good understanding of within-regime dynamics, our understanding of the drivers of land-use regime...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Insight Palavras-chave: Land-cover change; Land-use change; Latin America; Modeling; Prediction; Regime shifts.
Ano: 2016
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Modélisation biophysique pour la prévision du recrutement ArchiMer
Allain, Gwenhael.
Exploited fish populations are dependent on recruitment (i.e. size of the new year class) to sustain their abundance. Recruitment variations are related to hydroclimatic variations and may accentuate the detrimental effects of fishing. Recruitment prediction requires accurate fisheries oceanographic tools, which are expected to be more reliable than large-scale correlation analyses between fish abundance and climate variables. Recruitment is the result of the integration over a season and large oceanic areas of processes affecting larval survival, which are dependent on small-scale mechanisms. Hydrodynamic models are a tool to perform this integration. This thesis aims at exploring and modelling physical-biological interaction mechanisms in order to...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Anchovy; Upwelling; Turbulence; Retention; Fisheries management; Population dynamics; Stock environment interaction; Stock recruitment relation; Scale integration; Individual based models; Survival; Growth; Otolith; Physical biological interactions; Prediction; Recruitment; Turbulence; Rétention; Méso échelle; Intégration des échelles; Modèle de survie; Modèle de ponte; Modèles individu centrés; Modèles de corrélation; Modèles stochastiques; Juvéniles; Larves; Otolithe; Modèle de croissance; Interactions physique biologie; Prévision; Recrutement.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/2004/these-5.pdf
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Modelo de previsão da produtividade agrícola para auxílio à agricultura de precisão a partir da identificação de padrões freqüentes em base de dados espaço-temporal. Repositório Alice
VENDRÚSCULO, L. G.; OLIVEIRA, S. R. de M..
Esta proposta de pesquisa dispõe-se a investigar e propor novos e eficientes modelos de previsão de produtividade agrícola em auxílio à agricultura de precisão a partir de padrões frequentes de dados e consequentes Regras de Associação de dados Espaço-Temporal (RAET).
Tipo: Resumo em anais de congresso (ALICE) Palavras-chave: Produtividade agrícola; Modelo de previsão; Agricultura de precisão; Base de dados espaço-temporal; Precision agriculture; Models; Prediction; Databases.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://www.alice.cnptia.embrapa.br/handle/doc/876181
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Modelos de alerta para o controle da ferrugem-do-cafeeiro em lavouras com alta carga pendente. Repositório Alice
MEIRA, C.A.A.; RODRIGUES, L.H.A.; MORAES, S.A. de..
O objetivo deste trabalho foi desenvolver árvores de decisão como modelos de alerta da ferrugem-do-cafeeiro em lavouras de café (Coffea arabica L.) com alta carga pendente de frutos. Dados de incidência mensal da doença no campo coletados durante oito anos foram transformados em valores binários considerando limites de 5 e 10 pontos percentuais na taxa de infecção. Foi gerado um modelo para cada taxa de infecção binária a partir de dados meteorológicos e do espaçamento entre plantas. O alerta é indicado quando a taxa de infecção, prevista para o prazo de um mês, atingir ou ultrapassar o respectivo limite. A acurácia do modelo para o limite de 5 pontos percentuais foi de 81%, por validação cruzada, chegando até 89% segundo estimativa otimista. Esse modelo...
Tipo: Artigo em periódico indexado (ALICE) Palavras-chave: Coffea arabica; Hemileia vastatrix; Árvores de decisão; Doença de plantas; Previsão; Decision trees; Plant disease; Prediction.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://www.alice.cnptia.embrapa.br/handle/doc/125765
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MULTIDIMENSIONAL EVALUATION OF FLEXIBLE FUNCTIONAL FORMS FOR PRODUCTION ANALYSIS AgEcon
Ornelas, Fermin S.; Shumway, C. Richard.
Several common flexible functional forms are evaluated for Texas agricultural production utilizing three procedures. Nested hypothesis tests indicate that the normalized quadratic is the marginally-preferred functional form followed by the generalized Leontief. Predictive accuracy results are ambiguous between the generalized Leontief and the normalized quadratic. Statistical performance favors the normalized quadratic. These two functional forms consistently dominate the translog.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Box-Cox; Functional form; Prediction; Production; Statistical performance; Production Economics.
Ano: 1993 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15046
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