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Issues and Strategies for Aggregate Supply Response Estimation for Policy Analyses AgEcon
Ramirez, Octavio A.; Mohanty, Samarendu; Carpio, Carlos E.; Denning, Megan.
We demonstrate the use of the small-sample econometrics principles and strategies to come up with reliable yield and acreage models for policy analyses. We focus on demonstrating the importance of proper representation of systematic and random components of the model for improving forecasting precision along with more reliable confidence intervals for the forecasts. A probability distribution function modeling approach, which has been shown to provide more reliable confidence intervals for the dependent variable forecasts than the standard models that assume error term normality, is used to estimate cotton supply response in the Southeastern United States.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Nonnormality; Probability distribution function; Supply response; Q11; Q18; C32.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43420
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Risk of water surplus in soybean crop on haplic planosol soil in the Central Depression of Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil Ciência Rural
Bortoluzzi,Mateus Possebon; Heldwein,Arno Bernardo; Trentin,Roberto; Lucas,Dionéia Daiane Pitol; Righi,Evandro Zanini; Leonardi,Mateus.
ABSTRACT: The aim of this study was to identify soybean sowing dates on which there was low water surplus risk. The crop was raised on a Haplic Planosol soil in the Central Depression of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. Soybean development simulations and daily water balances were calculated for different sowing dates from August 1968 to July 2012. Water surplus data was subjected to BoxPlot analyses and Scott-Knott tests at a 5% error probability. Exponential, gamma, lognormal, normal and Weibull functions were tested and the best fits to the data were obtained for both subperiods and total cycle. The highest number of fits for the development cycle and subperiods were obtained using the gamma and weibull functions, respectively. For sowing carried out after...
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article Palavras-chave: Glycine max; Water balance; Numerical analysis; Probability distribution function.
Ano: 2017 URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0103-84782017000200205
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