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2002: PUTTING NEW CROP INSURANCE PROGRAMS TO THE TEST (PowerPoint Presentation) AgEcon
Davidson, Ross J., Jr..
POWERPOINT PRESENTATION
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/33130
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2007 U.S CORN PRODUCTION RISKS: WHAT DOES HISTORY TEACH US? AgEcon
Good, Darrel L.; Irwin, Scott H..
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Financial Economics; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37494
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2008 Farm Bill – Focus on ACRE (Average Crop Revenue Election)(PowerPoint) AgEcon
Zulauf, Carl R..
Presented to USDA Economists Group, Washington, DC, 03 October 2008.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agricultural policy; Revenue protection; Farm bill; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43907
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2008 Farm Bill: Implications for Risk Management (PowerPoint Presentation) AgEcon
Frerichs, Stephen.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37383
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A BAYESIAN FRAMEWORK FOR OPTIMAL INPUT ALLOCATION WITH AN UNCERTAIN STOCHASTIC PRODUCTION FUNCTION AgEcon
Griffiths, William E..
A Bayesian approach is used to provide a framework for optimal input allocation for a stochastic production function with uncertain parameters. The chosen production function is a single-input version of a function which can exhibit positive or negative marginal risk. The sensitivity of optimal input allocation to the degree of risk aversion, the marginal risk parameter, and the assumed level of uncertainty about the parameters is examined. Using an example problem it is shown that parameter uncertainty will not always lead to a lower input level when a producer is risk averse. Some problems with the production function specification are uncovered, as is the incompatibility of some expected utility and stochastic assumptions.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1986 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22898
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A Categorical Data Analysis on Risks in Agriculture AgEcon
Uematsu, Hiroki; Mishra, Ashok K..
This study compares farm operators’ risk perceptions and actual realization of risk attitudes revealed through off-farm labor, enterprise diversification, and use of contracts, crop insurance, and other types of insurance, using data from 2001 Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS). Results from ordered logit model and multivariate probit models unexpectedly found that risk loving farmers are more likely to employ risk management strategies.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Risk; Agribusiness; Crop Production/Industries; Labor and Human Capital; Marketing; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; D81; Q10; Q12.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98839
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A COMMODITY MARKET SIMULATION GAME FOR TEACHING MARKET RISK MANAGEMENT AgEcon
Trapp, James N..
The Market Risk Game is a computerized simulation game available for IBM PC and Apple II microcomputers that is designed to give realistic practice in making decisions in a risky market environment. It illustrates the use of hedging and put options to reduce risk in livestock and grain markets. It is best suited for individuals who have a basic understanding of commodity trading, but who need experience to solidify their knowledge to a functional level. Through the game this is done without facing the risk of an actual investment or requiring the time involved in watching a market over an extended period.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1989 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30178
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A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF RISK PREFERENCE ELICITATION PROCEDURES USING MAIL SURVEY RESULTS AgEcon
Fausti, Scott W.; Gillespie, Jeffrey M..
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/36469
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A Comparison between Perception of Risk and Willingness to Serve Genetically Modified Foods AgEcon
Nganje, William E.; Wachenheim, Cheryl J.; Lesch, William C..
The dichotomy between perceptions of the acceptability of risk associated with genetically modified (GM) foods and willingness to consume GM foods is investigated. Results indicate that some consumers are willing to consume GM foods even though they may perceive such foods as somewhat unsafe, with determinants such as self-perceived knowledge about the availability of GM foods and altruistic motives having positive and significant effects on their consumption decisions. Efforts toward decreasing perception of risk and ultimately increasing acceptance of and demand for GM foods should address issues related to their altruistic characteristics and outrage.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Consumer/Household Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/99792
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A COMPARISON OF CRITERIA FOR EVALUATING RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES AgEcon
Baker, Timothy G.; Gloy, Brent A..
Several criteria that produce rankings of risk management alternatives are evaluated. The criteria considered are Value at Risk, the Sharpe ratio, the necessary condition for first degree stochastic dominance with a risk free asset, and the necessary condition for second degree stochastic dominance with a risk free asset. The effectiveness of the criteria increases as decision-makers are assumed to be more risk averse and have greater access to financial leverage.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21726
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A COMPARISON OF NOMINAL AND REAL HISTORICAL RISK MEASURES AgEcon
Ford, Beth Pride; Musser, Wesley N..
Previous studies of historical risk have used either nominal or real data to calculate risk measures for agricultural prices and income. However, the effects of using nominal and real data have not been evaluated. This study utilizes theoretical variance approximation relationships to examine variances from detrended real and nominal time series. The relationships between variances are derived for quarterly U.S. farm milk prices for 1960-72, 1973-80, and 1981-90. Contrary to common intuitive arguments, results indicate that variances of real time series can be larger than variances of nominal series. While definitive conclusions are not possible, several reasons for using nominal data in risk analysis are given.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Detrending; Indices; Nominal data; Risk measurement; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1995 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15259
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A COMPARISON OF RISK EFFICIENCY CRITERIA IN EVALUATING GROUNDNUT PERFORMANCE IN DROUGHT-PRONE AREAS AgEcon
Bailey, Elizabeth; Boisvert, Richard N..
This paper contributes to an evaluation of the performance of ground nuts in drought-prone areas by estimating yield response functions to water from experimental data. They are combined with meteorological data to simulate yields by location. Efficient genotypes are identified by several risk criteria. Genotype rankings based on these risk criteria and simulated yields are different from those based on experimental data and plant scientists' traditional methods of evaluation.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1989 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22997
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A Comparison of Risk Exposure in Aquaculture and Agricultural Businesses AgEcon
Flaten, Ola; Lien, Gudbrand D.; Tveteras, Ragnar.
Agriculture and aquaculture have common features associated with their biological nature affecting risk exposure of the businesses. The aim of this paper is to compare risk exposure in salmon farming and agricultural enterprises in Norway by using an implicit error component model to examine the risk structure of yields, prices and economic returns at the farm level. Results indicate a higher farm-level year-to-year variability in yields, prices and economic returns in salmon farming than in agricultural enterprises. The variability in livestock enterprises was generally lower than for crop enterprises. Return on assets was highest in salmon farming with an average annual return of 9.2%. All of the agricultural farm types exhibited a negative average...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Risk analysis; Variability; Norway; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44052
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A COMPARISON OF RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES FOR INDIANA GRAIN PRODUCERS AgEcon
Rios, Ana R.; Patrick, George F..
Crop insurance and pre-harvest pricing strategies were analyzed for all years and "years following an normal crop year" from 1986 to 2001 in three counties. Although pre-harvest marketing strategies had the highest certainty equivaenls, net farm revenues were lower and crop insurances were more common strategies following normal crop years.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20192
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A Comparison of Risk Preference Measurements with Implications for Extension Programming AgEcon
Schurle, Bryan W.; Tierney, William I., Jr..
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty; Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession.
Ano: 1990 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/118185
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A Comparison of the Effectiveness of Using Futures, Options, LRP Insurance, or AGR-Lite Insurance to Manage Risk for Cow-calf Producers AgEcon
Feuz, Dillon M..
A comparative analysis was performed looking at using cash, futures, options, or insurance to manage the price of calves for cow-calf producer. Risk can be reduced with the futures market and with options or LRP insurance. Options and LRP insurance are equivalent in the amount of risk that is reduced. AGR-Lite does not appear to be an effective policy at reducing risk for cow-calf producers.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Cow-calf risk; Feeder cattle futures; Options; LRP Feeder Cattle; AGR-Lite; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Demand and Price Analysis; Farm Management; Financial Economics; Livestock Production/Industries; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53046
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A Comparison of the Great Mississippi River Floods of 1993 and 2011: Implications for Crop Insurance and Reinsurance AgEcon
Vergara, Oscar.
The flooding situation in 2011 is similar in nature to the Great Mississippi Flood of 1993, but different in the particulars. First, the timing of the flood within the growing season is different. Second, the two floods occurred in different regions, with the 1993 flood affecting a portion of the Corn Belt and the 2011 flood affecting a region farther south. While floodwaters have inundated several million acres of cropland in 2011, yield losses from delayed planting are expected to be limited. Furthermore, the affected states from the current flood are primarily Group 2 states under the current SRA, which are provided with greater reinsurance protection by the government than the Group 1 states.
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Great Mississippi Flood; 1993; 2011; SRA; Crop Insurance Losses; AIR Model; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty; C; Q.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/104897
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A Comparison of Traditional and Copula based VaR with Agricultural portfolio AgEcon
Mandal, Maitreyi; Lagerkvist, Carl Johan.
Mean-Variance theory of portfolio construction is still regarded as the main building block of modern portfolio theory. However, many authors have suggested that the mean-variance criterion, conceived by Markowitz (1952), is not optimal for asset allocation, because the investor expected utility function is better proxied by a function that uses higher moments and because returns are distributed in a non-Normal way, being asymmetric and/or leptokurtic, so the mean-variance criterion cannot correctly proxy the expected utility with non-Normal returns. Copulas are a very useful tool to deal with non standard multivariate distribution. Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) have emerged as a golden measure of risk in recent times. Though...
Tipo: Presentation Palavras-chave: Portfolio Choice; Downside Risk Protection; Value at risk; Copula; Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty; C52; G11; Q14.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/124387
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A Cost Function Analysis of Crop Insurance Moral Hazard and Agricultural Chemical Use AgEcon
Liang, Yan; Coble, Keith H..
This paper employs a cost function analysis method to investigate the existence of moral hazard in cotton buy-up insurance. The trans-log cost function estimates of the own-price elasticity of fertilizer, herbicide, and insecticide is -0.222, -0.143, and -0.121, respectively for Mississippi cotton production. Our results found statistically significant relationship between per acre direct cost and cotton buy-up insurance for year 2001 and 2005 in Mississippi. Our results also indicate that moral hazard can either decrease or increase agricultural input usage depending specific production condition in an individual year. But in general the results support effects smaller than anecdotal evidence would suggest.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Crop insurance; Moral hazard; Agricultural input use; Cost function analysis; Cotton; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49485
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A Crop Yield Expectation Stochastic Process with Beta Distribution as Limit AgEcon
Hennessy, David A..
The modeling of price risk in the theory and practice of commodity risk management has been developed far beyond that of crop yield risk. This is in large part due to the use of plausible stochastic price processes. We use the Pólya urn to identify and develop a model of the crop yield expectation stochastic process over a growing season. The process allows a role for agronomic events, such as growing degree days. The model is internally consistent in adhering to the martingale property. The limiting distribution is the beta, commonly used in yield modeling. By applying binomial tree analysis, we show how to use the framework to study hedging decisions and crop valuation.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Crop insurance; Growing degree days; Martingale; Pólya urn; Stochastic process.; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54829
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