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Registros recuperados: 41
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A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis of Conservation Reserve Program Participation under Uncertainty AgEcon
Isik, Murat.
This paper develops theoretical and empirical models to understand how farmers formulate their participation strategies when deciding to enroll in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) under uncertainty. A theoretical model is employed to obtain the impacts of various factors on the optimal bidding strategies. A selectivity-based econometric model is then used to estimate the probability of enrollment and determinants of rental payments. The theoretical results indicate that the optimal bid is positively related to the expected farming income and environmental benefit scores, and it is negatively related to the degree of risk aversion and the variability of returns. The econometric model shows that land benefits, land attributes, farmer...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Conservation programs; Land retirement; Risk aversion; Uncertainty.; Farm Management.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19264
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An attempt to modelling revenue insurance schemes at the farm level by means of Positive Mathematical Programming AgEcon
Severini, Simone; Cortignani, Raffaele.
Farmers face increasing income uncertainty and the debate is growing on the role of insurance schemes and of public support in this field. This paper applies a PMP modelling approach that takes into explicit consideration risk aversion behaviour to test its applicability to evaluating the potential impact of insurance schemes. This is done by introducing a revenue insurance scheme into a model developed on a small group of crop farms in Italy. The paper represents a preliminary assessment of the soundness of the proposed approach. It identifies some limitations that should be overcome to improve the proposed approach. Despite these limitations, it seems a useful tool to investigate the impact of insurance schemes and policy relevant parameters such as...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Insurance schemes; PMP; Farmers’ behaviour; Risk aversion; Agricultural and Food Policy; Q12; C61; Q18.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/99431
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Climate change impacts on crop risks and agricultural production in Finland AgEcon
Lehtonen, Heikki; Kujala, Sanna.
Climate Change is expected to improve crop production conditions significantly in northern Europe. In some studies a significant increase in agricultural production is expected in northern Europe while drought is becoming gradually more severe in Southern Europe and France due to climate change. Our analysis provides one of the first steps in evaluating the possible scale of changes in agricultural production and use of farm land in Finland, so far one of the least favoured agricultural areas in Europe. Drought in early summer and low temperature sum during growing period are currently the main growth limiting factors in Finland. Even though the early part of the growing period is likely to be dry also in the future, both mean and variance of crop yields...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Climate change; Agriculture; Risk aversion; Mean-variance analysis; Sector models; Optimization; Crop production; Finland; Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9259
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Coberturas óptimas en mercado de futuros bajo riego de precios y de rendimiento Colegio de Postgraduados
Guízar Mateos, Isaí.
En México, en la última década, cada vez ha sido mayor el uso de contratos en el mercado de futuros para administrar el riesgo en la actividad agrícola y en esto ha influido el impulso de programas gubernamentales. Este trabajo presenta la metodología y el cálculo de una cobertura para productores de maíz en Jalisco, México en el mercado de futuros que hace máxima su función de utilidad esperada, utilizando un modelo de media-varianza. El modelo asume que la función de utilidad está conformada por el ingreso esperado y la varianza del ingreso; se considera además que el precio futuro, el precio de contado y el rendimiento representan fuentes de riesgo para el productor. Las medias de estas variables son estimadas condicionadas a la información...
Tipo: Tesis Palavras-chave: Utilidad esperada; Coberturas óptimas; Aversión al riesgo; Mercado de futuros; Maestría; Economía; Expected utility; Optimal hedging; Risk aversion; Future market.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10521/1471
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Comparison of Risk Between Cropping Systems in Eastern Norway AgEcon
Lien, Gudbrand D.; Flaten, Ola; Schumann, Keith D.; Richardson, James W.; Korsaeth, Audun; Eltun, Ragnar.
The aim of this study was to compare production and policy risk of organic, integrated and conventional cropping systems in Norway. Experimental cropping system data (1991-1999) from eastern Norway were combined with budgeted data. Empirical distributions of total farm income for different cropping systems were estimated with a simulation model that uses a multivariate kernel density function to smooth the limited experimental data. Stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) was used to rank the cropping systems for farmers with various risk aversion levels. The results show that the organic system had the greatest net farm income variability, but the existing payment system and organic price premiums makes it the most economically viable...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Organic; Integrated and conventional crop farming; Stochastic simulation; Multivariate kernel estimator; Risk aversion; Stochastic efficiency with respect to a function; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty; Q12; C44.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24663
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Cost-Effective Farm-Level Nitrogen Abatement in the Presence of Environmental and Economic Risk AgEcon
Ekman, Sone.
This paper evaluates the consequences of considering environmental and economic risk in the analysis of cost-effective nitrogen abatement options in crop production. A farm-level mathematical programming model incorporating nitrogen leaching variability, field time variability, yield variability, and output price variability is developed. The empirical results reveal that requiring a high reliability with respect to a desired abatement target can be extremely costly, due to the high variability of nitrogen emissions. It appears to be sufficient to reduce average nitrogen load in order to reduce the environmental risk associated with nitrogen leaching variability, since a change to crops with lower average load also results in lower variability of nitrogen...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Nitrogen abatement; Risk aversion; Diversification; Chance constraints; Discrete stochastic programming; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24860
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Cow-Calf Producer Risk Preference Impacts on Retained Ownership Strategies AgEcon
Pope, Kelsey Frasier; Schroeder, Ted C.; Langemeier, Michael R.; Herbel, Kevin L..
Considerable efforts have been made to provide cow-calf producers with information to help them make informed decisions about adding value to calves. Despite demonstrated market incentives to retain calves, many producers still sell right after weaning. We postulate this observed behavior is related to producer risk aversion. Our study concludes risk aversion is an important factor affecting calf retention as the most risk-averse producers have more than a 60% probability of selling calves at weaning and the most risk tolerant have less than a 20% probability of selling at weaning.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Cow-calf producers; Ordered probit; Retained ownership; Risk aversion; Farm Management; Marketing; Q13; C25; D18.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/117953
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ECONOMIC IMPACT OF SCAB WITH ALTERNATIVE RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGY: THE CASE OF CROP QUALITY INSURANCE IN BARLEY AgEcon
Nganje, William E.; Tiapo, Napoleon M.; Wilson, William W..
Managing quality risks, especially grain quality, has been a challenge facing farmers, grain merchandisers, and policymakers for many years. With the advent of genetically modified organisms (GMOs), food safety, and identity preservation, this is even more challenging today. In this paper, an equilibrium crop insurance model was developed and used to analyze the impact of quality risks on equilibrium coverage levels and risk premiums that suppliers of insurance and barley producers would be willing to provide when yield and revenue insurance instruments explicitly incorporate quality risks. The asking price concept and sensitivity analysis were used to evaluate farmers' behavior after they purchase crop quality insurance and to provide guidance and...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Crop insurance; Equilibrium coverage levels; Fusarium Head Blight; Premium rates; Quality risks; Risk aversion; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23641
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EFFECT OF RISK AVERSION ON FEEDER CATTLE PRICES AgEcon
Lee, Jung-Hee; Brorsen, B. Wade.
This paper determines the effects of cattle feeders' risk aversion on feeder cattle prices using pen data of Kansas feedlots. Higher profit risk results in lower feeder cattle prices. The elasticity of feeder cattle price with respect to profit risk was small (-0.013). The risk elasticity estimated here is similar to risk elasticities in previous studies and thus, the use of pen-level data does not seem to add much to the study of risk.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Feedlot pen data; Price expectations; Hedonic price; Price risk; Risk aversion; Demand and Price Analysis; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 1994 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15168
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ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATION AND THE OPTIMAL LOCATION OF THE FIRM UNDER UNCERTAINTY AgEcon
Isik, Murat.
This paper examines the optimal location of a competitive firm in response to environmental costs imposed by the abatement investment and taxes when the cost of the environmental regulation varies spatially under uncertainty. It contributes to the literature by incorporating the spatial setting into a risk-averse firm's location decisions in the presence of environmental regulation uncertainty. An increase in the cost of the environmental regulation moves a risk-averse firm closer to the output market. An augmented input or emission tax causes the risk-averse firm to locate closer to the output market. Uncertainty about environmental regulations in the form of the abatement investment and taxes also leads a risk-averse firm to locate closer to the output...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Risk aversion; Uncertainty; Regulation; Market-based policies.; Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; D81; R38; Q28..
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22066
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Estimating a production function under production and price risks: An application to the suckler cow farms in the French charolais production area AgEcon
Mosnier, Claire; Reynaud, Arnaud; Thomas, Alban; Lherm, Michel; Agabriel, Jacques.
Suckler cow production in France relies mainly on a relatively extensive management of forage, implying that production risk may be enhanced by the sensitivity of those crops to weather variability. However risk exposure is supposed to be mitigated either through ex-ante decisions concerning pasture area management or through ex-post decisions concerning the purchase of feeds. This paper aims at assessing weather impacts on cattle production level decisions. Since farmers' decisions depend on farmers' behaviour regarding risks, which are namely production and price risks, we test constant absolute risk aversion, constant relative risk aversion and risk neutrality assumptions. We develop an econometric model encompassing an auto-regressive price function...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Production function estimation; GMM; Weather impact; Price and production risks; Risk aversion; Suckler cow farms; French charolais production area; Livestock Production/Industries; Production Economics.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9246
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Examining the Functional Specification of Two-Parameter Model under Location and Scale Parameter Condition AgEcon
Nakashima, Takahiro.
The functional specification of mean-standard deviation approach is examined under location and scale parameter condition. Firstly, the full set of restrictions imposed on the mean-standard deviation function under the location and scale parameter condition are made clear. Secondly, the examination based on the restrictions mentioned in the previous sentence derives the new properties of the mean-standard deviation function on the applicability of additive separability and the curvature of expansion path which links the points that give the same slope of indifference curve. It reveals that attention has not been sufficiently paid to the restrictions in interpreting the linear mean-standard deviation model and the nonlinear mean-standard deviation model...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Mean-standard deviation approach; Location and scale parameter condition; Functional specification; Risk aversion; Uncertainty; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21171
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Experimental Evidence of Risk Aversion in Consumer Markets: The Case of Beef Tenderness AgEcon
Alfnes, Frode; Rickertsen, Kyrre; Ueland, Oydis.
Consistency of quality is important for brand loyalty and market share in consumer markets. Among consumers of beef, tenderness is the primary quality attribute. We use an experimental auction market to investigate how inconsistency in tenderness affects consumers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for beef. We find that both the level and the spread of tenderness affect consumers’ WTP for beef. Categorization the beef into various classes of tenderness increased the total value of the beef by 8%, which suggests that improved tenderness labeling may be a profitable strategy.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Beef tenderness; Consumer demand; Experimental auction; Marketing; Risk aversion; Consumer/Household Economics; C91; D12; D8; Q13.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24553
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Factors affecting the use of forward pricing methods in price risk management with special reference to the influence of risk aversion AgEcon
Jordaan, Henry; Grove, Bennie.
Risk aversion is the primary reason for farmers to use forward pricing methods to hedge against price risk. Previous international research on farmers’ forward pricing behaviour found inconsistent results with respect to the relationship between risk aversion and the use of forward pricing methods. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression is used in this research to investigate the relationship between the proportion of maize Vaalharts maize producers are willing to forward price and risk aversion. The quantity decision is modelled conditional on the adoption decision to ensure that the modelling procedure does not force the same variables to influence the two decisions in the same way. Regression results showed that more risk averse farmers are forward...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Forward pricing; Risk aversion; Farm characteristics; Linear regression; Crop Production/Industries; Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/5970
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FOOD DECISION, INFORMATION AND PERSONALITY AgEcon
Loheac, Youenn; Combris, Pierre; Issancou, Sylvie.
This study introduce measures of personality traits in an experiment which associate willingness to pay for food and sensory analysis tools in order to explore potential links between personality and food decisions. Measure of personality traits comes from experimental economics (risk aversion and time preference) and from psychology (sensation seeking and impulsivity). We introduce them in the analysis of behaviours of participants in their food decisions (purchase intent, willingness to pay, reaction to new information), and underline some significant links.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Food decision; Information; Experimental methods; Risk aversion; Time preference; Personality traits; Agricultural and Food Policy; Consumer/Household Economics; Demand and Price Analysis; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Food Security and Poverty; Health Economics and Policy; C91; D12.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/116434
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Hidden action, risk aversion and variable fines in agri-environmental schemes AgEcon
Ozanne, Adam; White, Benedict.
This note analyses the design of agri-environmental schemes for risk-averse producers whose input usage is only observable by costly monitoring. The scheme penalises producers in proportion to input use in excess of a quota. A striking result is that if the scheme is designed in such a way that producers always comply with the quota, risk aversion is not relevant in determining the level of input use.
Tipo: Article Palavras-chave: Agri-environmental policy; Monitoring; Risk aversion; Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/118539
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How can allocative inefficiency reveal risk preference? An empirical investigation on French wheat farms AgEcon
Blancard, Stephane; Boussemart, Jean-Philippe; Crainich, D.; Leleu, Herve.
We focus on a simple framework on wheat producer behaviour in a context of price output uncertainty. More precisely, we establish a relationship between ex post output price level and allocative inefficiency that allows to characterize farmers’ risk preferences. Given this analysis, the connection between risk aversion and other socioeconomic variables (such as degree of output specialisation, total asset, debts, farmer’s age…) can furthermore empirically be explored. This relationship is empirically tested on an unbalanced panel including about 650 wheat producers located in the French Department of Meuse over 1992- 2003.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Producer behaviour; Allocative inefficiency; Risk aversion; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44208
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INCORPORATING RISK PREFERENCES INTO REAL OPTIONS MODELS AgEcon
Isik, Murat.
This paper develops a framework to link the expected utility analysis to real options models in order to capture the joint effects of risk aversion and irreversibility associated with real investments. It aims at modifying the theory of investment under uncertainty by incorporating decision makers' risk preferences and allows explicitly analyzing the impacts of risk aversion, uncertainty and irreversibility on decisions such as investment and resource allocations. It addresses the shortcomings of the commonly used expected utility and investment under uncertainty models be generalizing the theory of irreversible investment under uncertainty by allowing for risk-averse investors. We found that uncertainty, irreversibility and risk aversion are important...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Expected utility; Investment under uncertainty; Irreversibility; Real options; Risk aversion; Risk and Uncertainty; D81; G1.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20027
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Insights into Trader Behavior: Risk Aversion and Probability Weighting AgEcon
Mattos, Fabio; Garcia, Philip; Pennings, Joost M.E..
The objective of this study is to investigate how professional traders in futures and options markets behave under risk and uncertainty. Our preliminary findings suggest that most traders exhibit concave utility functions for gains and convex utility functions for losses, while their weighting functions are inverse s-shaped. However, differences in magnitude of the risk aversion parameters and the degree of probability weighting can lead to distinct behavior even if the shapes of utility and weighting functions are the same. Further, the typical pattern of prospect theory is more prevalent under risk but not as much under uncertainty. More combinations of shapes for utility and weighting functions are found under uncertainty, suggesting that different...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Trader behavior; Risk aversion; Probability weighting.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37569
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Intertemporal risk aversion – or – wouldn’t it be nice to tell whether Robinson Crusoe is risk averse? AgEcon
Traeger, Christian P..
The paper introduces a new notion of risk aversion that is independent of the good under observation and its measure scale. The representational framework builds on a time consistent combination of additive separability on certain consumption paths and the von Neumann & Morgenstern (1944) assumptions. In the one-commodity special case, the new notion of risk aversion closely relates to a disentanglement of standard risk aversion and intertemporal substitutability.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Uncertainty; Expected utility; Recursive utility; Risk aversion; Intertemporal substitutability; Certainty additivity; Temporal lotteries; Gauge-freedom; Intertemporal risk aversion; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/90421
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